Do African Countries Need a New Economic Model?

 World Political Review published on 16 January 2024 an analysis titled "African Countries Need a New Economic Model" by Liam Taylor, freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa.

The author argues the structural adjustment reforms that governments adopted in the 1980s, often under duress, have set the tone for economic policy ever since.  The lacunae in that model--in particular, its neglect of the state and its dismissal of industrial policy--are part of the reason why Africa remains so vulnerable to external shocks.

The rise of China has given renewed luster to statist development models.  In the West, industrial policy is no longer a dirty word.  Could the current moment prove an inflection point?  The author concludes the old models of public finance, economic policy, and even the climate are all creaking.  So far policymakers have been hesitant to explore new ones.  Now is as good a time as any to start.  

Comment:  While it may be a good time to look at new economic models on a case-by-case basis, a new model for all of Africa makes little sense.  Some of the continent's 54 countries are doing just fine with their current model.  An end to corruption in a number of other countries is more important than implementing a new model that permits corruption to continue.  And for goodness' sake, don't return to the statism of the 1960s and 1970s with bloated manufacturing enterprises and inefficient service industries controlled by governments.  

Perceptions of China by Nigerian University Students

 The Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research published in September 2023 an article titled "Rethinking China: Perceptions from Africa a Survey of Nigerian University Students" by Nurettin Can, Sanar Muhyaddin, Ahmet Arabaci, Ibrahim Koncak, and Ibrahim Keles.  

The article looks at the sources from which 602 students in Nigerian universities receive information about China and solicits their opinions on several issues.  The internet and social media are the primary source of information about China.  The students are generally neutral on the responsible behavior of China as a global power, positive about China as a development model, and concerned about the influx of Chinese labor in Nigeria.  

Malians Seem to Prefer China over US and France (in French)

 Afrobarometer published on 28 June 2021 an analysis titled "Les Maliens, favorable a l'integration regionale et aux investissements etrangers, soutiennent l'influence positive de la Chine."

An Afrobarometer survey of 1,200 adult Malians during March and April 2020 found that 80 percent had a positive response to China's economic and political influence in the country compared to 60 percent for the United States, 56 percent for Russia, and 34 percent for France.  In addition, 38 percent chose China as the best development model for Mali vs 16 percent for France and 15 percent for the United States.

On the other hand, 44 percent of the sample said Mali is too much in debt to China while only 30 percent said it is not too indebted and only 2 percent selected Chinese as the future international language vs 37 percent for French and 35 percent for English.  

African View of China and the US

 The US Institute of Peace published on 23 June 2021 an analysis titled "Countering China on the Continent: A Look at African Views" by Thomas P. Sheehy and Joseph Asunka.  

Afrobarometer surveyed 16 African countries in both 2014-15 and 2019-20. In the most recent survey, 60 percent of respondents said China's influence is "somewhat" or "very positive."  This is actually down from 65 percent in the survey held five years earlier.  The authors concluded that many Africans view China's influence as waning on the continent. 

In a survey of 18 countries in 2019-20, 59 percent say China's influence is "somewhat" or "very positive" while 58 percent express that opinion of the United States.  

In the survey of 18 countries in 2019-20, when it comes to which country would serve as the best model for development, 32 percent of Africans prefer the US model, compared to 23 percent for the Chinese model.  

Perceptions of China in Africa

 The Conversation posted on 17 November 2020 an analysis titled "How Popular Is China in Africa? New Survey Sheds Light on What Ordinary People Think" by Folashade Soule and Edem E. Selormey.  

According to Afrobarometer surveys, most Africans still prefer the United States over China as a development model, agree that China's influence is still largely considered as positive for Africa, and Africans who are aware of Chinese loans feel that their countries have borrowed too much.  

African Perceptions of China and the US

 AFRO Barometer published on 3 September 2020 a study titled "Africans' Perception about China: A Sneak Peek from 18 Countries" by Edem Selormey.

Drawing on public opinion polling in 18 African countries in 2019/2020, AFRO Barometer compared reactions to China and the United States.  When asked whether China or the United States was the best model for the future development of each country, 32 percent replied the United States and 23 percent replied China.  Other countries accounted for the remainder.  China's average percentage improved slightly from 22 percent in 2014/2015.

When asked if the economic and political influence of the United States and China in each country is mostly positive or mostly negative, 59 percent had a mostly positive view of China and 15 percent a mostly negative view.  In the case of the United States, 58 percent had a mostly positive view and 13 percent a mostly negative view. The remaining respondents were not sure.  

China in Africa: Economic Myths and Soft Power

The Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) published on 15 December 2016 a commentary titled "China in Africa: Economic Myths and Soft Power" by Hilary Matfess, research associate at IDA.

The commentary summarizes recent studies on Chinese investment in Africa, African public opinion of China, and China as a development model.

G-20 and Africa: China's Turn

The Italian Institute for International Political Studies published on 2 September 2016 a commentary titled "G20 and Africa: China's Turn" by Maddalena Procopio, a PhD candidate at the London School of Economics.

The author argues that China's influence in the G-20 will cause the organization to prioritize issues of interest to Africa and the least developed nations such as industrialization, poverty reduction, infrastructure improvement, and sustainable development.

Afro Barometer Ranks China in Africa

Afro Barometer published on 24 October 2016 an analysis titled "China's Growing Presence in Africa Wins Largely Positive Popular Reviews" by Mogopodi Lekorwe, Anyway Chingwete, Mina Okuru, and Romaric Samson.

Based on surveys in 36 African countries, the study concluded that the public holds a generally favorable view of economic and assistance activities by China. Africans rank the United States and China number one and two respectively as development models for their countries.

China as a Development Model for Africa?

The Oxford University China-Africa Network posted on 4 June 2016 "Contextualising the China Development Model in Africa" by Franklyn Lisk, University of Warwick.

The author asks if China is a new development model for Africa or if its influence signals a new era of African economic dependency.

Contrary Views of China in Africa

Telesur published on 13 December 2015 a commentary titled "China's Path into Africa Blocked" by Patrick Bond, a professor at the University of the Witwatersrand.  The author takes a negative view of China's activities in Africa as contrasted with a positive view by another University of Witwatersrand professor, Garth Shelton. 

China-India Competition in Africa

Deutsche Welle, Germany's international broadcaster, published a commentary on 11 September 2015 titled "India's Modi Sets Sights on Africa" by Gabriel Dominguez. 

India will host from 26 to 30 October the India-Africa Forum Summit for representatives from all 54 African countries.  This is the third summit since the series began in 2008.  Coincidentally, it takes place less than two months before China's Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in South Africa.  India's summit may offer some evidence as to how seriously African leaders are looking for alternatives to Beijing's investment model, especially in the wake of the economic downturn in China. 

China-Africa Trade

Pambazuka News published on 5 February 2014 a piece titled "Sino-African Trade: Modern-day Brobdingnag and Flying Geese" by Zaki Harare, MAIS candidate at the University of Concordia.  He concludes that strategic decisions taken by African nations will determine whether China will be a catalyst for massive transformation of Africa in the next few decades.