Somalia Loses Ground to Al-Shabaab

 South Africa's Daily Maverick published on 28 July 2025 an article titled "Fragmented Governance in Somalia a Breeding Ground for Al-Shabaab's Growing Influence and Power" by Selam Tadesse Demissie.

Rivalries among the federal government, states, and political opposition are undermining the country's earlier counterterrorism successes.  Al-Shabaab is regaining areas in central Somalia and threatens the capital as the government struggles to implement its counterterrorism strategy.  

Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal Roils Region

 Deutsche Welle published on 2 January 2024 an article titled "Somalia Rejects Ethiopia Deal with Breakaway Somaliland."

Ethiopia and Somaliland, which declared its independence from Somalia in 1991 but has not been recognized by any government, agreed in a Memorandum of Understanding on 1 January that Ethiopia would obtain a 50-year lease to build a military base on 12 miles of Somaliland's Gulf of Aden coast and obtain access to its port of Berbera.  In return, Ethiopia implied it would be the world's first government to recognize Somaliland.  

The government of Somalia in Mogadishu, which claims Somaliland as part of its territory, rejected the deal on the grounds that Somaliland does not have the authority to make such a deal.  

Comment:  Much is not clear about this deal and many questions remain concerning the ability of Ethiopia and Somaliland to implement it.  The deal appears to have more to do with the establishment of an Ethiopian naval base in the Gulf of Aden than shifting its imports and exports from the port of Djibouti to Berbera.  The transport infrastructure between Djibouti and Addis Ababa is much more developed than that between Berbera and Addis Ababa.  

Supporting Somalia's Revival

 The Wilson Quarterly published in its Fall 2023 edition a commentary titled "Supporting Somalia's Revival" by Larry E. Andre, US ambassador to Somalia 2022-2023.

The former US ambassador to Somalia makes a plea for the United States to continue its multi-pronged support of Somalia's efforts to achieve peace and prosperity.  

Podcast on Somalia and US Role

 The International Crisis Group posted on 6 November 2023 a 38-minute podcast titled "Somalia's Stalling Fight against Al-Shabaab and America's Wobbly Strategy" with Omar Mahmood and Sarah Harrison.

Somali government advances against al-Shabab stalled during the summer and even experienced some reverses.  A military victory looks more distant.  The podcast discusses US policy towards Somalia and frustration over the apparent absence of US attention to an end game.  

Rebalancing US Policy in Somalia

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 27 June 2023 a lengthy analysis titled "Out of the Box: How to Rebalance U.S. Somalia Policy."

The ICG argues that the United States should rebalance its policy in Somalia by increasing stabilization assistance and more effectively help Somalia address political rifts impeding conflict resolution.  The ICG also suggests Washington should prepare for the possibility of negotiations between Mogadishu and al-Shabaab.  

Somalia and Federalism

The Heritage Institute for Policy Studies issued a policy brief in February 2015 titled "Federal Somalia: Not If but How." 

Based on a survey of 213 Somalis in five cities, the study concluded that the majority view federalism as the most suitable form of governance to decentralize Somalia because it facilitates reasonable power sharing among clans, enables regional autonomy and ultimately leads to a reduction of conflict.  A substantial majority views the current federation process as deeply flawed because it is largely an elite-driven and externally facilitated scheme that promotes clan identity at the expense of citizenship. 

Weapons Diversion in Somalia

The East African published on 1 March 2014 an article titled "UNSC Considers Arms Ban on Somalia for Weapons Diversion" by Malkhadir Muhumed.  The article deals with the report by the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea that alleges the Somali government has engaged in the serious diversion of weapons contrary to UN restrictions. 

Challenges Facing New Somali Government

Laura Hammond, School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London, published an article titled "Somalia Rising: Things Are Starting to Change for the World's Longest Failed State" in volume 7, issue 1 (2013) of the Journal of Eastern African Studies.

The article examines some of the challenges facing the new Somali government and assesses the dynamics which allowed the emergence of relative newcomers into important roles, especially President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.  She wonders if the recent optimism is justified and will it be sustained? 

UN Role in Somalia

Anthony Banbury, UN assistant secretary general for field support, wrote a commentary on the UN role in Somalia that appeared in the 23 October 2012 Washington Post. He accurately emphasized the UN's important and continuing effort in Somalia since the early 1990s to encourage peace and provide humanitarian aid, albeit downplaying the missteps of the UNOSOM phase in the mid-1990s.

Although he cited the role of the African Union in Somalia (AMISOM), it should be underscored that AMISOM has done the heavy lifting in Somalia since 2007. The African Union (mainly Ugandan and Burundi forces joined later by the Kenyans and Djiboutians) sent troops to Somalia when the United Nations chose not to do so.

Click here to read Banbury's commentary.

Political Transition in Ethiopia and Somalia

Carol Castiel of the Voice of America's Encounter program asked Jennifer Cooke, head of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, and I to participate in a half-hour discussion of the political transition underway in Ethiopia and Somalia.

Click here to access the program, then click Encounter for 28 September 2012.

New Somali President Speaks to Aljazeera

New Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud had a brief interview with Aljazeera on 16 September 2012. He made two key points. He is willing to talk with those members of al-Shabaab who are willing to talk with him. He insisted that his government is not a creation of the international community.

Click here to listen to his remarks.