African Arguments published on 18 January 2025 a commentary titled "US-Horn of Africa Dilemmas" by Belete Belachew Yihun, Horn of Africa analyst resident in the United States.
The author does not foresee much change in US policy towards the Horn of Africa by the new Trump administration.
The U.S. State Department posted on 2 March 2023 an interview with General Michael Langley, Commander of U.S. Africa Command. This wide ranging interview covers many aspects of U.S. military engagement in Africa and comments on Russian and Chinese activities.
The New York Times published on 16 May 2022 an article titled "Biden Approves Plan to Redeploy Several Hundred Ground Forces into Somalia" by Charlie Savage and Eric Schmitt.
The Trump administration removed US troops from Somalia just days before the inauguration of President Biden in 2021. The Biden administration just announced it plans to deploy several hundred Special Operations forces inside Somalia to train Somali troops and to track down the leaders of the al-Shabaab terrorist organization.
Newsweek published on 5 May 2022 a commentary titled "Biden Needs to Look Beyond the Military to Solve Somalia's Security Crisis" by Marcel Plichta, University of St. Andrews.
Returning several hundred soldiers to Somalia removed by the Trump administration will not win the war against al-Shabaab and solve the country's governance problems. The Biden administration needs to prioritize non-military policies to address Somalia's security crisis.
The US Naval Institute News published on 15 March 2022 an article titled "AFRICOM: China, Russia Expanding Influence in Africa" by John Grady.
The article summarizes testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee by General Stephen J. Townsend, Commander of the US Africa Command. It laments the growing influence of Russia and China on the continent, noting that China is working hard to develop more bases in Africa. Townsend added that "our competitors clearly see Africa's potential" for providing an advantage. He concluded the continent is "engaged in a struggle between democracy and autocracy."
Townsend's complete testimony is titled "Investing in America's Security in Africa: A Continent of Growing Strategic Importance."
The New York Times published on 24 February 2022 an article titled "US Carries Out First Airstrike in Somalia Since August" by Eric Schmitt.
US forces carried out this week its first drone strike since last August against al-Shabaab forty miles northwest of Mogadishu.
South World published on 1 February 2022 a commentary titled "Gulf of Guinea: The New Hotspot of the US-China Rivalry" by Francois Misser.
The article reviews alleged recent contacts by China to obtain permission to establish a military base at ports on Africa's Atlantic coast to the consternation of the United States.
Air Force Magazine published on 27 January 2022 an article titled "Somalia Hopes to Reconstitute Its Air Force with Renewed US Partnership" by Abraham Mahshie.
Somalia reestablished its Air Force in 2015, although it has no pilots or planes. It hopes to rebuild with US help.
Comment: Except for humanitarian needs and disaster relief, an Air Force would seem to be a low priority for Somalia.
The National Interest published on 30 December 2021 a commentary titled "Can America Compete with Chinese Influence in Africa?" by Kris Osborn.
Unfortunately, this commentary does not answer the question it raises.
The CTC Sentinel published in September 2021 an article titled "Twenty Years after 9/11: The Threat in Africa--The New Epicenter of Global Jihadi Terror" by Tricia Bacon, American University, and Jason Warner, West Point.
The authors point out that Africa has become the global epicenter of jihadi violence. The persistence of al-Qaeda affiliates, the rise of Islamic State partners, the endurance of facilitating domestic African social conditions, and ineffective counterterrorism efforts have led to this alarming outcome. A US commitment to countering jihadi violence will improve its position in Africa vis-a-vis China and Russia.
Memri published on 16 July 2021 an analysis titled "Beijing's Overseas Military Base in Djibouti" by Tuvia Gering and Heath Sloane.
This is an up-to-date account of China's military base in Djibouti with useful graphics.
The Voice of America Encounter Program with Jeffrey Young ran on 28 May 2021 a 25-minute podcast titled "East Africa Stability - Motives for China's Presence" with Judd Devermont, CSIS Africa program director, and myself.
This wide ranging discussion focused on the situation in Ethiopia and China-Africa relations, but also covered the broader Horn of Africa region.
The New York Times published on 15 February 2021 an article titled "In a Dangerous Game of Cat and Mouse, Iran Eyes New Targets in Africa" by Declan Walsh, Eric Schmitt, Simon Marks, and Ronen Bergman.
Ethiopia's intelligence agency recently uncovered a cell of 15 people it said were casing the embassy of the United Arab Emirates, along with a cache of weapons and explosives. Ethiopia said it foiled the attack, but did not indicate who was behind it. Now US and Israeli officials say the operation was the work of Iran.
The Foreign Policy Research Institute published on 12 January 2021 an analysis titled "The Way Forward for the United States in Somalia" by Stephen M. Schwartz, former US ambassador to Somalia.
The author recommends, among other proposals, that the Biden administration reverse the Trump administration's decision to withdraw almost all US forces from Somalia.
The Washington Post published on 29 December 2020 an article titled "As U.S. Forces Leave, Elite Somali Unit Fears Becoming Political Pawn" by Max Bearak.
In its waning days in office, the Trump administration pulled American forces out of Somalia. Most of the US force was training the elite Somali Danab military unit. The question now is what becomes of the Danab unit.
The Washington Post published on 4 December 2020 an article titled "Trump Orders Departure of Majority of 700 U.S. Troops in Somalia" by Alex Horton.
The Associated Press published on 4 December 2020 a similar article titled "Trump Orders Most American Troops to Leave Somalia" by Robert Burns.
The New York Times published on 5 December 2020 its account of this development titled "In Somalia, U.S. Troop Withdrawal Is Seen as Badly Timed" by Declan Walsh.
Before leaving office on 20 January 2021, the Trump administration plans to remove most of the 700 strong American force from Somalia to Kenya and other locations. Most of the Americans were training the elite Somali Danab force.
Comment: This is a strange decision in the waning days of the Trump administration that seems designed to preempt any policy the Biden administration has in mind for Somalia. It is unclear if military professionals had any role in the decision, although they may have been instrumental in convincing Trump not to remove the force entirely from the region and relocate part of it in Kenya. One wonders, however, if the training of Danab can be done as effectively from neighboring Kenya.
The New York Times published on 27 November 2020 an article titled "Pentagon Chief Visits Somalia Ahead of Expected Troop Cuts" by Eric Schmitt.
The Acting Secretary of Defense met with American troops and the US ambassador in Somalia on 27 November prior to an expected controversial announcement that the US will withdraw nearly all of the more than 700 American military personnel in the country.
A recent issue of Prism published an article titled "No Competition without Presence: Should the US Leave Africa?" by Katherine Zimmerman, American Enterprise Institute.
The author argues that the minuscule dollars and troops supporting U.S. efforts in Africa accomplish much more in terms of influence and effects than their redeployment to other theaters will in the competitive global field. Reducing those assets too much will strain AFRICOM's ability to operate effectively. To increase America's bang for the buck AFRICOM must innovate and transform its counterterrorism approach in partnership with the State Department and USAID in order to achieve enduring gains against the Salafi-jihadi movement, and cultivate strong African partnerships to counter Chinese and Russian influence on the continent.
The New York Times published on 18 November 2020 an article titled "Somalia Worries That a U.S. Withdrawal Will Be Disastrous" by Abdi Latif Dahir and Eric Schmitt.
The United States has been training an elite 850-member commando unit in Somalia to counter the al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab organization that is trying to topple the government of Somalia. The Trump administration has said it wants to pull U.S. troops out of Somalia. The article quotes several experts who say this would be a serious policy mistake.
Foreign Policy posted on 2 November 2020 an analysis titled "Trump's Plan to Withdraw from Somalia Couldn't Come at a Worse Time" by Samuel Ramani.
President Trump has asked his senior advisors to devise a plan for the withdrawal of the 650 to 800 U.S. forces stationed in Somalia. The author argues that this could exacerbate violence in the region and increase the influence of Russia and China.
