Turkey's Role in Somalia

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published an excellent analysis on 8 October 2012 titled Assessing Turkey's Role in Somalia. At one point, I believe it suggested Turkey's revived interest in Africa is more recent than is actually the case. Turkey undertook a major effort beginning in 2005 to expand its relations throughout Africa. Its engagement with Africa since then has been extraordinary.

The study concluded that "Somalis of all walks of life refer to Turkey's arrival as a miracle and Godsend. But that honeymoon is ending." ICG added that "Turkey faces incredibly high Somali expectations that will lead to disappointment unless well managed." It then properly warned: "Ankara should be under no illusion that it can continue working solo in Somalia. International actors that have traditionally played the lead role in Somalia are joining Turkey on the ground in Mogadishu. It will need to coordinate its efforts with others to achieve a durable peace in Somalia, because the alternative--poor coordination--will be exploited by Somali politicians, leading to unnecessary duplication and the waste of limited and badly needed resources."

Click here to read the analysis.

Analysis of Al-Shabaab's Losses in Somalia

The CTC Sentinel at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point published an analysis titled "Factors Responsible for Al-Shabab's Losses in Somalia" on 26 September 2012. The authors are Alexander Meleagrou-Hitchens, research fellow at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence at King's College in London, and Hussein Solomon, senior professor at the University of the Free State in South Africa.

They emphasize the success of AMISOM, internal al-Shabaab clan divisions and al-Shabaab's mismanagement of the drought in 2011. At the same time, they warn that al-Shabaab will remain a dangerous organization even as it loses control of more territory.

Click here to read the analysis.

AMISOM and Civilian Protection in Somalia

The latest issue of Accord's Conflict Trends contains an article titled "AMISOM and the Protection of Civilians in Somalia." It traces the evolution of AMISOM's role in Somalia and gives special attention to AMISOM's efforts to protect civilians as it engages al-Shabaab in combat.

The authors are Walter Lotze and Yvonne Kasumba, Civilian Planning and Liaison Officers in the Peace Support Division of the African Union Commission in Addis Ababa.

Click here to access the article.

Next Steps in Somalia

Andrews Atta-Asamoah and Tarryn Warries at the Institute for Security Studies wrote a brief commentary on the next steps in Somalia dated 13 September 2012. While the remarks were written before the selection of the new Somali president they offer a valuable warning concerning al-Shabaab. The authors note that the capture of Kismayo is both eminent and likely, but this will offer no guarantee that its loss and the associated loss of funding will end al-Shabaab's operations and influence in Somalia. An al-Shabaab defeat in Kismayo will probably change its tactics from the current hybrid of guerrilla and conventional attacks to purely Boko Haram-style guerrilla attacks, employing hit-and-run tactics capable of making the state ungovernable.

Click here to read the commentary.

New Somali President

Somali-American journalist Abdi Aynte wrote an excellent piece on 11 September 2012 for African Arguments on the appointment of new Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Abdi stated that "I've known President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud for sometime. He's a man of integrity and humility and a social entrepreneur who founded one of Somalia's most successful higher education institutions: Simad University in Mogadishu. Mohamud is also accessible and intrepid--a civil society leader who endured Somalia's 21-year long period of war in the capital." Click here to read Abdi Aynte's report.

Although I do not know the new president, I respect Abdi Aynte's judgment. At a minimum, this change of government opens the possibility for a new beginning in Somalia. I am impressed that the 275-member parliament selected someone who has remained inside Somalia throughout these troubled times and that Sheikh Mohamud comes from civil society and not a political background. It is now important for two things to happen. The new government must eschew the temptation of corruption and the international community must back away from involvement in Somali political affairs. Let the new team see if it can unite most Somalis behind its program on terms it, not the international community, proposes.

What Kind of Government for Somalia?

Somalia specialist Ken Menkhaus, professor at Davidson College and currently a visiting scholar at the U.S. Army Strategic Studies Institute, wrote an article titled "Somalia's 20-Year Experiment in Hybrid Governance" for the 8 August 2012 issue of World Politics Review. He made an argument for a Somali government that negotiates relations with nonstate and substate entities in areas beyond its control. He calls this the "mediated state model" in which a central government that has the competence to know the limits of its competence allows local authorities to mediate relations between the state and its citizens. It outsources to the private sector, nonprofits and local polities many functions normally associated with a central government. Click here to read his analysis.

In a 10 September 2012 rejoinder, Mohamud M. Uluso took exception to the Menkhaus approach. Uluso argued that Somalia needs a democratic functional national authority accountable first and foremost to its people, one that is not only willing but demonstrably capable of representing national interests and empowered to deliver the critical functions of government. The only way this kind of government can be established in Somalia is to fulfill the five point plan proposed by the Turkish government during the Istanbul II conference and to adhere to the principles laid out by Ashraf Ghani and Clare Lockhart in their book Fixing the Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World.

While I agree with Uluso's noble goal, it is hard to see how one gets there quickly. In the meantime, the Menkhaus approach may be the only practical short-term answer.

Two Views of Somali Political Process

E-International Relations, a website for students of international politics, recently posted two analyses of the Somali political process. The first was cautiously optimistic while the second described Somalia's constitution-making process as "deeply flawed."

The first analysis is dated 28 July 2012 and titled "Where to for Somali State-building since London and Istanbul Conferences?" by Michael Walls, director of research for the Development Planning Unit at University College London. Click here to read his analysis.

The second analysis is dated 2 September 2012 and titled "Revisiting the UN-Controlled Constitution-Making Process for Somalia" by Afyare Abdi Elmi, assistant professor of international politics at Qatar University. Click here to read his analysis.

Seminar on Somalia's Future

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) held a seminar in Nairobi on 16 August 2012 titled "Somalia's Transition New Hopes, Old Fears." The Honorable Wafula Wamunyinyi, Deputy Special Representative of the Chairperson of the AU Commission to Somalia; Abdulrazak Fartaag, previously in the office of the prime minister of Somalia; and Ibrahim Farah, a lecturer at the University of Nairobi, made presentations.

Click here to read a summary of their presentations.

Comments on Somalia and Somaliland

The Somaliland Sun asked me to respond to several questions dealing with Somalia, Somaliland and Ethiopia. The paper published my responses in its 26 August 2012 edition. Click here to read the short interview.

Somali Transition Process

The Heritage Foundation, a conservative Washington-based think tank, posted an issue brief by Morgan Roach dated 20 August 2012 titled Somalia's Government Transition Maintains the Status Quo. The commentary is highly critical of the transition process.

Click here to read the report.

ICG and Somali Transition Process

The International Crisis Group (ICG) in a brief commentary on 20 August 2012 titled "Somalia: From Troubled Transition to a Tarnished Transition?" excoriated the ongoing process to establish a replacement government for the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG).

The ICG said "the current process has been as undemocratic as the one it seeks to replace, with unprecedented levels of political interference, corruption and intimidation." The ICG added that "the extremist Islamist movement Al-Shabaab is down but not out, and it is evolving, and plots to take advantage of the resulting chaos to regain power." The ICG even criticized the process of selecting elders as some were uneducated and objectionable individuals, some sold seats to the highest bidders and others nominated their own family members.

In my view, it is difficult to be optimistic about this flawed process. The only hope is that the new leadership, many of whom will be familiar faces, has had an epiphany and agrees to work on behalf of most Somalis without resorting to corruption. Until there is a government that is widely respected by most Somalis, it will be impossible to reconstitute an effective national government and probably not possible to end the threat from al-Shabaab.

Click here to read the ICG commentary.

More Criticism of Somali Provisional Constitution

Mohamud Uluso published on 8 August 2012 another critical analysis of Somalia's Draft Provisional Constitution. His first analysis can be read in a posting below for 10 May 2012. Click here to read his latest thoughts.

I would only point out that it is easy to criticize the work of others on controversial issues; it is difficult to come up with a document that an overwhelming majority of Somalis will find satisfactory.

UN Monitoring Group Report on Somalia and Eritrea

The approved 330 page report of the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea has been released. It is my understanding that it does not differ significantly from at least two previously leaked versions of the report. The coordinator of the report was Canadian national Matt Bryden. He does not intend to coordinate the next report.

Based on the earlier leaked reports, the international press focused on two issues: massive corruption in the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the fact that Eritrea has significantly reduced its support for al-Shabaab.

For coverage of Eritrea's reduced support for al-Shabaab, click here to read Aaron Maasho's report in Reuters. For coverage of corruption in the TFG, click here to read Jason Straziuso's account in the Associated Press and click here to read the TFG's response as reported by the BBC.

If you are up to all 330 pages of the UN report, click here. It contains a wealth of information.

Approaching the End of the Somali Transition

The Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) comes to an end on 20 August 2012 and will be followed by a new government selected by the National Constituent Assembly, which is made up of 825 Somali representatives.

The Institute for Security Studies in South Africa held a seminar on the transition on 11 July 2012. Click here to read a summary of the conclusions that focus on the progress, challenges and prospects for the transition.

Somali Government Missing Millions

Abdirazak Fartaag, head of Somalia's Public Finance Unit in Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke's office from May 2009 to September 2010 and Prime Minister Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo's office from December 2010 to May 2011, claimed that various Somali administrations misappropriated and mismanaged millions of dollars in donor assistance and domestic revenue by under reporting the amounts received and by utilizing funds on personal and other non-government expenses.

When asked why he decided to release his audit report now, he responded: "I am trying to show through my audit that every single government that Somalia has had since 2000 has consistently mismanaged public funds."

Click here to read the entire article in Pambazuka News.

The Somali Roadmap: Where Does It End?

Chatham House in London published in June 2012 an analysis titled End of the Roadmap: Somalia after the London and Istanbul Conferences. Jason Mosley, an associate fellow at Chatham House, concluded that the roadmap will probably continue towards its goal of handing over to a caretaker administration on 20 August 2012. The end of the roadmap will not, however, signal an end to Somalia's transition. The new administration will face many of the same challenges threatening the TFG, and some other generated by the roadmap process itself.

Click here to read the analysis.

Somaliland and the Recognition Issue

The Horn newspaper and the Somaliland Sun asked me to comment on the Chevening House Declaration as it concerns Somaliland. Click here to read the brief interview.

Somalia and Somaliland: Chevening House Declaration

Delegations representing the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the government of Somaliland met at Chevening House in London on 20-21 June as part of a dialogue that began at the London Conference and continued at Istanbul II.

The Chevening House Declaration is unexceptional. It primarily commits both sides to continue the dialogue and cooperate in the fight against terrorism, extremism, crime, piracy, illegal fishing and toxic waste dumping. Importantly, however, it suggests that both sides are willing to continue the talks.

Click here to read the brief declaration and click here to read a congratulatory statement by UK Foreign Secretary William Hague.

For a commentary on the declaration by Yusuf M. Hasan in the Somaliland Sun, click here.

Conservative Think Tank Proposes Somalia Policy

The Washington-based conservative think tank, The Heritage Foundation, published a background paper on 18 May 2012 titled Saving Somalia: The Next Steps for the Obama Administration. The authors, Morgan Lorraine Roach and Ray Walser, both with the Heritage Foundation, make a number of controversial recommendations including recognition of Somaliland's independence and putting Eritrea on the list of state sponsors of terrorism.

Click here to read the paper.

Somalia and Somaliland

Abukar Arman, Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) special envoy to the United States, posted a provocative commentary on 13 June 2012 titled Sustainable Peace: Why Somaliland Matters.

His basic argument is that there is now more discussion, at least in the Somali diaspora, among Somalis from both Somalia and Somaliland about ways "to end the status quo and settle our differences." He added that there is even a growing willingness by cultural elders and clan leaders in Somaliland to break ranks with the official secessionist position. He remains critical of Ethiopian motives in the region and the U.S. dual track policy towards Somalia. His piece should keep the debate alive.

Click here to read the commentary.