Andrews Atta-Asamoah and Tarryn Warries at the Institute for Security Studies wrote a brief commentary on the next steps in Somalia dated 13 September 2012. While the remarks were written before the selection of the new Somali president they offer a valuable warning concerning al-Shabaab. The authors note that the capture of Kismayo is both eminent and likely, but this will offer no guarantee that its loss and the associated loss of funding will end al-Shabaab's operations and influence in Somalia. An al-Shabaab defeat in Kismayo will probably change its tactics from the current hybrid of guerrilla and conventional attacks to purely Boko Haram-style guerrilla attacks, employing hit-and-run tactics capable of making the state ungovernable.
Click here to read the commentary.