The CTC Sentinel at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point published an analysis titled "Factors Responsible for Al-Shabab's Losses in Somalia" on 26 September 2012. The authors are Alexander Meleagrou-Hitchens, research fellow at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence at King's College in London, and Hussein Solomon, senior professor at the University of the Free State in South Africa.
They emphasize the success of AMISOM, internal al-Shabaab clan divisions and al-Shabaab's mismanagement of the drought in 2011. At the same time, they warn that al-Shabaab will remain a dangerous organization even as it loses control of more territory.
Click here to read the analysis.