China: Falling Crude Oil Imports from Africa

 Visual Capitalist published on 2 September 2025 a chart titled "Visualizing China's Crude Oil Imports by Country" by Dorothy Neufeld and Joyce Ma.

The chart shows China's crude oil imports by major source in 2024.  African countries accounted for less than 9 percent of China's total imports.  This percentage has been steadily declining over the last 15 years but has stabilized in the last couple of years at this low level.

By comparison, in 2024 China received 57 percent of its crude from the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Iran.  Another 20 percent came from Russia.    

Iran Rearms Houthi Proxies for Red Sea Attacks

 CNN posted on 19 July 2025 an article titled "'Nothing Has Changed': Iran Tries to Rearm Proxy Groups as US Talks Stall" by Mostafa Salem and Nic Robertson.

Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen sank two Liberian-flagged commercial ships in the Red Sea last week.  Three days after Iran and Israel declared a ceasefire, forces in Yemen loyal to the internationally recognized government seized a vessel with 750 tons of Iranian missiles and military equipment destined for the Houthis.  Iran also continues to support proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria.  

USAID Dismantled and Children Die

 The Associated Press published on 16 May 2025 an article titled "Children Die as USAID Cuts Snap a Lifeline for the World's Most Malnourished" by Taiwo Adebayo.

Drawing on a program implemented by Mercy Corps in Nigeria to feed malnourished children, the article documents the damage caused by dismantling USAID.  It also looks at the closure of global programs administered by Helen Keller International.  

The Trump Administration Reverses Course and Reinstates Food Aid Programs in Six Countries

 Reuters published on 8 April 2025 an article titled "Trump Administration Moves to Restore Some Terminated Foreign Aid Programs, Sources Say" by Jonathan Landay, Daphne Psaledakis, and Humeyra Pamuk.  

The Trump administration reinstated at least 6 recently cancelled US foreign aid programs for emergency food assistance following pressure from inside the administration and from Congress.  The reversal allows food aid programs to continue in Somalia, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Jordan, and Ecuador.

Somalia's Islamic State Leader

 The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point Sentinel July/August 2024 issue contains an article titled "The Death of an Islamic State Global Leader in Africa?" by Austin Doctor and Gina Ligon.

This article presents an overview of the Islamic State's leader in Somalia, Abdulqadir Mumin, assesses the Islamic State's operations under his leadership, and discusses the effort by the United States to target him in an airstrike.

Analysis of Impact of Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping

 The Atlantic Council published on 9 August 2024 a report titled "What Attacks on Shipping Mean for the Global Maritime Order" by Elisabeth Braw.

This report discusses the history of attacks on shipping, the rules implemented to keep shipping safe, and the new and serious threat posed by Houthi attacks.  The focus of the report is on the current Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

Chinese Private Security Companies in North Africa and the Middle East

 The Jamestown Foundation published on 28 August 2023 an analysis titled "Chinese PSCs in MENA: The Cases of Iraq and (South) Sudan" by Sergey Sukhankin.

The activities of Chinese PSCs in North Africa and the Middle East are more opaque and limited than in other regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia.  

Russian Naval Strategy in the Indian Ocean

 Abu Dhabi-based TRENDS Research and Advisory published on 14 May 2023 an analysis titled "The Indian Ocean: Moscow's New Naval Priority" by Stephen Blank, senior fellow Foreign Policy Research Institute.  

The study analyzes  Russia's naval strategy in the Indian Ocean.  Russian naval deployments in the Indian Ocean will, according to Moscow, allow it to deter Western missile strikes on its territory originating in the Indian Ocean and give Russia leverage over extensive trade passing through these waters.

Why Arab Countries Support China's Xinjiang Policies

 The National Interest published on 24 October 2020 an article titled "Why the Muslim Middle East Supports China's Xinjiang Crackdown" by Adam Lammon.

The author suggests that Arab countries, including Morocco and Egypt in North Africa, and non-Arab Muslim countries in the Middle East support China's crackdown on Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang for several reasons.  First, China has strong economic ties with most of these countries and can use these ties for political leverage.  Second, the leaders of these countries loathe political Islam, which they associate with terrorism.  They are willing to accept China's explanation for the crackdown on Uyghurs as a counterterrorism campaign.  

Sudan, Climate Change, and Conflict

The New Arab published on 13 March 2019 an article titled "Iraq and Sudan Show How Climate Change Fuels War" by Austin Bodetti, a freelance journalist.

The author draws parallels between conflict in Iraq and Sudan, noting the negative impact of climate change and drought.

Aiding Somalia and Somaliland

The Hill published on 19 February 2019 a commentary titled "The US and UN Are Repeating Iraq-style Mistakes in Somalia" by Michael Rubin, American Enterprise Institute.

The author suggests that the problem with US policy in Somalia is that Washington and the UN are channeling all aid funds to Somaliland, which declared unilateral independence from Somalia in 1991, through the government in Somalia. This practice effectively short-changes the democratic government of Somaliland.

While there is a strong argument to me made for providing more assistance to Somaliland, this will not solve the governance issues in Somalia or end the threat of al-Shabaab.

Conflict between Somali Extremist Groups

The Associated Press published on 6 December 2018 an article titled "Bloody Rivalry Erupts between Al-Shabab, Islamic State Group in Somalia" by Abdi Guled.

The article reports a growing conflict between two extremist groups in Somalia: al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabaab and a group affiliated with the Islamic State that consists mainly of defectors from al-Shabaab. Both groups are competing for funding from local businesses by extorting money from them.

China's Armed Drone Sales Include African Countries

Foreign Policy published on 14 January 2016 an article titled "Meet China's Killer Drones" by Adam Rawnsley.  It describes China's production and export of armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones.  Countries that have purchased the drones include Egypt, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Pakistan, and Iraq.  Algeria has tested the drones, which China's sells with fewer restrictions and at less cost than US produced drones.  There are, however, questions about quality. 

10 Conflicts to Watch in 2016: 4 in Africa

Foreign Policy published on 3 January 2016 an article titled "10 Conflicts to Watch in 2016" by Jean-Marie  Guehenno.  Four of the 10 conflicts are in Africa: Libya, Lake Chad Basin, South Sudan, and Burundi. 

10 Wars to Watch in 2015

Foreign Policy published on 2 January 2015 an article titled "10 Wars to Watch in 2015" by Jean-Marie Guehenno.  The discussion includes:

--Syria, Iraq, and the Islamic State.
--Ukraine.
--South Sudan.
--Nigeria.
--Somalia.
--DRC.
--Afghanistan.
--Yemen.
--Libya and the Sahel.
--Venezuela. 

Al-Shabaab Attack on Kenyan Civilians

BBC Radio 5 Live "Up All Night" program asked me to comment 22 November 2014 on the al-Shabaab attack on Kenyan civilians traveling on a bus between Mandera and Nairobi.  You can listen to the five minute commentary here.  It begins about seven minutes into the program which aired on 23/11/2014 London time. 

Situation in Libya: Discussion with China Radio International

China Radio International broadcast on 5 August 2014 a 25 minute program on the situation in Libya.  It consists of three separate interviews with Flynt Leverett, Pennsylvania State University, Li Guofu, China Institute of International Studies, and myself.  The focus was on the effects of Western intervention in 2011 and whether Libya can extricate itself from its current troubles. 

Somaliland and Kurdistan: Are There Parallels?

The Kurdistan Tribune published on 25 July 2014 commentary titled "Kurdistan Independence: Gleam of Hope for Somaliland" by Mohamed Abdilahi Duale, a political analyst in Somaliland.  The author makes the argument that Iraqi Kurdistan and Somaliland share many important underlying factors. 

The Pitfalls to China's Mideast Policy

The Diplomat published on 25 June 2014 a brief analysis titled "The Pitfalls to China's Mideast Policy" by Jeffrey Payne, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies in Washington.  China's growing interests, especially the need for energy, in the region and lack of experience there are posing new challenges for Chinese foreign policy. 

China's situation in the Middle East sounds increasingly like its position about five years ago in Africa where it also began to learn some hard lessons concerning the impact of conflict on its interests.  China has more experience in Africa than in the Middle East. 

"State-building, Counterterrorism and Licensing Humanitarianism in Somalia"

In September 2010, Somali specialist Mark Bradbury published a paper titled "State-building, Counterterrorism and Licensing Humanitarianism in Somalia" at Tufts University's Feinstein International Center.

He argues that Somalia is a location where western military strategies and aid policies developed in Afghanistan and in Iraq are being transferred to Africa. Counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategies combining military force and aid stabilization packages and the use of "for profit" companies to deliver assistance are being deployed in Somalia. This has not proved effective in Afghanistan, where there has been no shortage of funding. He says transferring such approaches to Somalia, which takes no consideration of the context and is backed by fewer resources, seems unlikely to be any more successful.

The biggest challenge to independent humanitarian action in Somalia is, he suggests, the moves towards greater regulation and licensing of humanitarian aid by donor governments. In order to deliver assistance to populations in need in south central Somalia, aid agencies have to negotiate with local authorities, who, in many places, are allied to anti-government forces such as al-Shabaab or Hisbul Islam.