Russian Invsion of Ukraine Disrupts African Supply Chains

 The Standard (Kenya) published on 18 November 2022 an article titled "War in Ukraine Has Big Impact on Kenya, Africa" by Protus Onyango.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has driven up prices of energy, fertilizer, and grain and disrupted supply chains across Africa.  Kenyans, for example, have shifted to charcoal from the DRC, South Sudan, and Uganda, which threatens the future of the rainforest.  

Somalia's New Government and Al-Shabaab Challenge

 The Associated Press published on 25 May 2022 an article titled "For New Somalia Government, Al-Shabab a Threat to Authority" by Rodney Muhumuza.

The article discusses the internal dynamics of Al-Shabaab and its continuing influence.  Al-Shabaab's strategy is to patiently wait for the departure of foreign troops.  

Gulf States Destabilize Somalia

World Politics Review published on 29 June 2018 a commentary titled "Gulf Rivalries Extend into the Horn of Africa, Further Destabilizing Somalia" by Ilya Gridneff, a Somalia analyst based in Kenya.

As Western influence wanes in the Horn of Africa, clashing visions of how to engage with the region, from rival Gulf states to Turkey, will only intensify, threatening the unity of Somalia most of all.

UN Security Council Extends Arms Embargo on Somalia and Eritrea

The United Nations recently posted a report on the UN Security Council decision to "Extend the Arms Embargoes on Somalia and Eritrea." Eleven members of the Security Council supported the decision and four (China, Russia, Egypt, and Bolivia) abstained. No country voted against the resolution.

The Somali arms embargo does not apply to the Somali national security forces. The resolution also reaffirms the ban on the import and export of Somali charcoal. While the most recent report of the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea has not in recent years found any conclusive proof of Eritrean support for al-Shabaab, the Security Council emphasized that the Monitoring Group has not been able to visit Eritrea since 2011, thus limiting its ability to investigate the issue. Some members of the Security Council also expressed concern over Eritrea's handling of Djiboutian prisoners of war following their border dispute and continuing Eritrean support for "certain regional armed groups." Eritrea argued that the Security Council did not properly take into account its counter claims.

The Role of Finance in Defeating Al-Shabaab

The Royal United Services Institute published in December 2014 a major report titled "The Role of Finance in Defeating Al-Shabaab" by Tom Keatinge.  This report describes all the sources of al-Shabaab funding and offers suggestions for countering the financing. 

Al-Shabaab Attack on Kenyan Civilians

BBC Radio 5 Live "Up All Night" program asked me to comment 22 November 2014 on the al-Shabaab attack on Kenyan civilians traveling on a bus between Mandera and Nairobi.  You can listen to the five minute commentary here.  It begins about seven minutes into the program which aired on 23/11/2014 London time. 

Al-Shabab: A Close Look at East Africa's Deadliest Radicals

World Politics Review published on 19 August 2014 a good analysis titled "Al-Shabab: A Close Look at East Africa's Deadliest Radicals" by Peter Dorrie, a freelance journalist.  

Dorrie concludes that al-Shabaab has emerged from an existential crisis and looks stronger than it has in years.  He describes al-Shabaab as the only faction in Somalia's political landscape with a clear and, for the most part, consistent political agenda.