Ethiopia Moves Forward with Dams on Blue Nile; Egypt Objects

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 9 April 2026 an article titled "Ethiopia-Egypt" by Michael DeAngelo and Liam Karr. 

Ethiopia has solicited bids from international companies to build three dams on the Blue Nile upstream from the existing Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam at a total cost of $10.5 billion over seven years.  Downstream Egypt opposes the construction and sent a letter from President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi to President Trump promising "a firm and decisive response" to any future dams.  Theoretically, the United Sates is trying to mediate the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia.

Egypt Linked to Horn of Africa Challenges

 World Politics Review published on 31 October 2024 a commentary titled "Egypt's Future Increasingly Passes Through the Horn of Africa" by Francisco Serrano.  

With both its water resources from upstream Nile River countries such as Ethiopia and Suez Canal revenue now dependent on events in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea, this region has become a strategic focus for Egypt.  

Encircling Ethiopia

 The Hill published on 28 October 2024 a commentary titled "Shifting Alliances in the Horn of Africa: An Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia Axis" by Imran Khalid.  

The author argues that the recent summit in Asmara of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia was an effort "to encircle Ethiopia."  Egypt, frustrated with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, may be positioning itself for a proxy war, using Eritrea to destabilize its neighbor.  

An Anti-Ethiopia Alliance in Northeast Africa?

 Foreign Policy published on 16 October 2024 a commentary titled "The Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape" by Nosmot Gbadamosi.

The author argues that Egypt is aligning with Eritrea and Somalia to counter Ethiopia, but a direct conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia is unlikely with the Somali National Army preoccupied by its fight against al-Shabaab.

A Decade of Egypt-Russia Relations

 The South African Institute of International Affairs published in September 2024 a paper titled "Strategic Partners or Tactical Allies? A Decade of Egypt-Russia Relations" by Heba Taha, Lund University of Sweden.

The paper assesses the drivers of the Egyptian-Russian relationship and its evolution over the past decade.  The author concludes that the relationship reflects a tactical convergence and is mostly structured around mutual interests.  Egypt forms a key part of Russia's turn to the Middle East and Africa.  At the same time, Egypt perceives closer cooperation with Russia as a way to balance its relationship with the United States.  

Are Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia Ganging Up on Ethiopia?

 The BBC published on 10 October 2024 an article titled "Eritrea, Egypt and Somalia Cement 'Axis against Ethiopia'" by Teklemariam Bekit.  

The Presidents of Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia met in Asmara on 10 October.  Eritrea issued a statement at the conclusion of the summit calling for "respect for the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the countries of the region."  The article interpreted the purpose of the summit as an alliance aimed at Ethiopia.

Aljazeera published on 10 October 2024 an article titled "Somalia, Eritrea and Egypt Pledge to Bolster Security Ties."  

The article gave a less confrontational interpretation to the summit but noted that Egypt has pledged to send troops to Somalia for the new African Union peacekeeping mission.  

Egypt's New Realism

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy published in September 2018 a 94-page study titled "Egypt's New Realism: Challenges under Sisi" by Barak Barfi, adjunct fellow at the Institute.

The study details the economic, social, political, and security challenges facing Egyptian President al-Sisi as he begins his second term. Chapter 6 of the study looks at Egypt and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.