Russia in the Middle East and North Africa

 The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published on 2 December 2024 a study titled "Russia in the Middle East and North Africa: Arms, Power Projection, and Nuclear Diplomacy" edited by Amr Hamzawy.

The study contains the following chapters:

Introduction - Russia in the Middle East and North Africa--Disrupting Washington's Influence and Redefining Moscow's Global Role by Amr Hamzawy.

1. The Soviet Roots of Putin's Foreign Policy Toward the Middle East by Mark N. Katz.

2.  Russia's Balancing Act in the Levant by Maha Yahya and Mohanad Hage Ali.

3.  Soviet and Russian Policies Toward Egypt: Two Snapshots by Amr Hamzawy and Rain Ji.

4.  A Mixed Balance Sheet: Russia's Uneven Influence in the Maghreb by Frederic Wehrey.

5.  Autocrats United: How Russia and Iran Defy the U.S.-led Global Order by Nicole Grajewski and Karim Sadjadpour.

6. China and Russia in the Gulf: A Cacophony of Influence and Interest by Robert Mogielnicki.

7,  Turkiye and Russia: An Unequal Partnership by Sinan Ulgen.

8.  Russia's Enduring Presence in the Middle East by Eugene Rumer and Andrew S. Weiss.

9.  Russia's Great Energy Game in the Middle East by Sergey Vakulenko.  

Russia, Africa, Arms, and Debt

Eurasia Review posted on 18 November 2019 a commentary titled "Russia, Africa and the Debts" by Kester Kenn Klomegah, independent researcher on Russia and Africa.

At the Russia-Africa summit in Sochi in late October, President Valdimir Putin reiterated a commitment made early this century that Russia had cancelled more than $20 billion in African debt accrued during the Cold War. Most of this debt resulted from loans for the purchase of arms.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, between 2014 and 2018 Russia accounted for 49 percent of arms transfered to North Africa and 28 percent to Sub-Saharan Africa. Russia was the largest single source of arms for both regions. Russia's state arms exporter announced at the Russia-Africa summit in Sochi that Russia plans to transfer $4 billion worth of weapons to African countries in 2019, according to an article in the 24 October 2019 The Moscow Times. This raises the question whether African countries are accruing new debt or Russia is insisting on other terms before it transfers arms. There is some evidence that arms are being bartered for mining rights as reported by Eric Schmitt in an article tilted "Russia's Military Mission Creep Advances to a New Front: Africa" in The New York Times on 31 March 2019.

Corruption Runs Deep in South Sudan

The Sentry published a detailed report in September 2019 titled "The Taking of South Sudan: The Tycoons, Brokers, and Multinational Corporations Complicit in Hijacking the World's Newest State."

South Sudanese politicians and military officers ravaging the world's newest nation received support from individuals and corporations from across the world who have reaped profits from those dealings. This report examines several illustrative examples of international actors linked to violence and grand corruption in order to demonstrate the extent to which external actors have been complicit in the taking of South Sudan. One of the complicit companies is Dar Petroleum. Chinese state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation and Malaysian state-owned Petronas hold 41 percent and 40 percent stakes respectively in the consortium.

Russia To Help Angola Manufacture Military Equipment

In Depth News posted on 7 April 2019 a story titled "Angola Plans Manufacturing Russian Military Equipment" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.

Russia has reportedly agreed to help Angola develop a local manufacturing capability for certain military equipment. Russia has been the principal supplier of military equipment to Angola since it began supporting the MPLA in the 1960s.

Diversion of Arms from Peacekeepers in Sudan and South Sudan

The Small Arms Survey published in July 2015 a detailed report titled "Under Attack and Above Scrutiny? Arms and Ammunition Diversion from Peacekeepers in Sudan and South Sudan, 2002-14" by Eric G. Berman and Mihaela Racovita.  It is the first independent review of weapons lost in peacekeeper operations.

There were more than 100 attacks on peacekeepers in Sudan and South Sudan between 2005 and 2014.  At least half of them resulted in the loss of arms and ammunition, most of them in the Darfur region. 

Arms and Ammunition in Sudan and South Sudan

Small Arms Survey published in May 2014 a lengthy report titled "Following the Thread: Arms and Ammunition Tracing in Sudan and South Sudan" by Jonah Leff, director of operations at UK-based Conflict Armament Research, and Emile LeBrun, consultant on small arms and light weapons issues.

The study concludes that older weapons from the eastern bloc and Iran, as well as newer weapons from China, predominate among all armed actors in Sudan and South Sudan.  Sudanese security forces are the primary source of weapons to non-state armed groups in Sudan and South Sudan through deliberate arming and battlefield capture.  Khartoum's deliberate supplying of Chinese manufactured arms and ammunition to southern insurgents took place in apparent violation of end-user agreements with the government of China.

As Sudan has bolstered its arms manufacturing sector since the 1990s, Sudanese military equipment has increasingly appeared on the battlefield and in the hands of non-state armed groups.   Sudanese-manufactured ammunition proliferates not only in Sudan and South Sudan, but also in other conflict zones such as the Central African Republic, Cote d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, and Syria.

The government of South Sudan and southern insurgent groups have supplied arms and ammunition to civilians in South Sudan.  South Sudanese armed groups are in possession of an increasing number of weapons whose factory marks and serial numbers have been removed, a tactic designed to undermine identification and tracing.

UN Agreement with Somalia

The UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) signed a detailed legal agreement on 26 February 2014 with the government of Somalia.  It lays down the ground rules under which UNSOM can operate in Somalia.

Confidential UN Report Warns of Systematic Diversion of Somali Arms

Reuters obtained access to a 14-page confidential report to the UN Security Council prepared by the UN Somalia and Eritrea Monitoring Group.  The 13 February 2014 article titled "Exclusive - U.N. Monitors Warn of 'Systematic' Somali Arms Diversion" by Louis Charbonneau charges high-level and systematic abuses in weapons and ammunition management distribution by the Somali government.

The UN report said the Somali government is distributing arms to "parallel security forces and clan militias that are not part of the Somali security forces," identifing arms to Abgaal and Habar Gedir sub-clans in particular.  According to the report, arms also went to al-Shabaab leader Sheikh Yusuf Isse.  The report concluded that the government's security policy is being captured by clan and sub-clan politics. 

The Chad-Sudan rapprochement

Flickr/UN photo from April 2008 depicting fighters of the Justice and Equality Movement.

The Small Arms Survey recently published an analysis of the rapprochement between Chad and Sudan that began in late 2009 and by mid-2010 had ended the proxy conflict.

Written by Jérôme Tubiana and released in March 2011, the report is titled “Renouncing the Rebels: Local and Regional Dimensions of Chad-Sudan Rapprochement” (PDF).

The report concluded that rapprochement has increased stability in the region. One of the main achievements of the détente is the weakening of the Chadian armed opposition to approximately 1,000 fighters as of early 2011.

While Chad has expelled the Justice and Equality Movement from its territory, the group has not been disarmed and is managing to survive by expanding its areas of operations and recruitment.

Despite the increased stability, there are no political solutions in sight to either the Chadian political crisis or the Darfur rebellion. The rapprochement has left dissatisfied combatants from both countries in the most unstable areas of the region, namely the Sudan-Chad-Central African Republic tri-border area and the contested border between North and South Sudan.

Interview on Southern Sudan

Al Alam News Network, an Arabic language TV channel based in Beirut, asked me to join a spokesperson for the government of Sudan in a discussion on Jan. 27, 2011, concerning the recent referendum on the secession of Southern Sudan. The sound quality of the line from Beirut made it very difficult to understand the questions, but I made the following points.

The United States initially supported the unity of Sudan rather than its division into two countries. When it became apparent, however, that neither the government in Southern Sudan nor in Khartoum was working to make unity attractive, the United States insisted on holding the referendum on schedule and that its results be accepted. The death of former Sudan People’s Liberation Movement Leader John Garang in a helicopter accident ended any effort by Southern Sudan to seek unity while the government in Khartoum never made a serious attempt to make unity attractive.

The United States will almost certainly push for democratic systems in Southern Sudan just as it has been doing in the North.

I doubted that the United States has any intention to provide arms to Southern Sudan, although some American groups outside the government are arguing that the United States should, at a minimum, provide defensive military equipment. So far, Southern Sudan has had no problem buying arms on the international arms market.

It is in the interest of both the North and South and the entire Horn of African region to have an amicable divorce between the two parties where they resolve outstanding issues in the next six months before the interim government comes to an end. This should be followed by “soft borders” for the free movement of people between the North and South. This was a point made in Washington on Jan. 26 by visiting Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Karti.

Arms transfers and Somalia

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute published in October 2010 a background paper titled “Arms Flows and the Conflict in Somalia” by Pieter D. Wezeman.

It looks at arms going to Somali opposition groups, the Transitional Federal Government, the African Union force in Mogadishu, Eritrea and Ethiopia. The analysis underscores that the arms transfers risk unintended consequences such as diversion to other parties and human rights abuses.

You can read the entire report here (PDF).

Quote in Defense News

I'm quoted in Wendell Minnick's article "China Showcases Arms at Africa Defense Expo" in Defense News today.

The piece doesn't seem to appear on the DN website. Here's my quote:

In March 2008, South African dockworkers refused to unload a Chinese cargo ship carrying 70 tons of small arms and ammunition for eventual delivery to Zimbabwe’s ruling ZANU-PF Party, led by President Robert Mugabe. The ZANU-PF was accused of using violence against pro-democracy advocates during elections. The ship was rerouted to Angola, where it off-loaded non-military cargo and returned to China with the remaining arms.



Beijing initially defended the shipment, but relented after international pressure.



“The most obvious conclusion is that there is good money to be made in the arms business, and China has become one of the world’s most important suppliers of arms — globally, well behind the U.S. and Russia — to the developing world,” said David Shinn, former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia.



From 2001 to 2008, China transferred to sub-Saharan Africa 390 artillery pieces, 440 armored personnel carriers and armored cars, 46 minor surface combatants, 20 supersonic combat aircraft and 70 military aircraft (mostly transport), said Shinn, now an African specialist with the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University.



Assistant secretary of state for African affairs speaks at GW

Image: Ambs. Shinn and Carson. Photo by Jessica McConnell/GW. Ambassador Johnnie Carson, assistant secretary of state for African affairs, addressed some 200 students and members of the public at the Elliott School of International Affairs on February 18, 2010. The Elliott School is just a short sprint from the State Department. Ambassador Carson had a 37-year career in the Foreign Service that included ambassadorships to Kenya, Zimbabwe and Uganda and as principal deputy assistant secretary of state for African Affairs. Following an introduction by the dean of the Elliott School, Michael Brown, Ambassador Carson focused his remarks on U.S. policy towards Africa in the Obama Administration. He identified five priorities in U.S. policy towards Africa.

1. To help build strong and stable democracies on the continent. Sustainable economic development and the prevention of armed conflict must be coupled with the development of accountable government institutions.
2. To support economic growth and development. This must include the full inclusion of women in all areas of the economy. The centerpiece of this policy is the Millennium Challenge Account and the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act. In addition, the Obama Administration has pledged $3.5 billion for a food security program that will provide critical tools to African farmers to build local capacity.
3. To strengthen public health systems so that they can deal with the ravages of HIV/AIDS, malaria, cholera, tuberculosis and hepatitis. The Obama Administration has pledged to continue the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).
4. To help prevent, mitigate and resolve armed conflicts. There are new special envoys for Sudan and the Great Lakes Region to focus attention on these two especially troubled areas. The United States will work closely with the African Union in this effort.
5. To work with America’s African partners to address transnational challenges such as narcotics trafficking, trafficking in persons, climate change and violent extremism. Extremist groups include local movements aligned with al-Qaeda.

A lively question and answer period followed. The summary that follows constitutes my recollection of the discussion. It has not been vetted with Ambassador Carson. Image: Ambs. Shinn and Carson and Michael E. Brown, dean of the Elliott School. Photo by Jessica McConnell/GW. Several of the questions dealt with the coup in Niger that removed President Mamadou Tandja from office fewer than 24 hours before Ambassador Carson gave his remarks. While Ambassador Carson condemned the extra-legal overthrow of the government in Niger, he also strongly criticized the manner in which Tandja extended his time in office. Tandja not only ignored the term limit provision in Niger’s constitution but then refused to abide by decisions of both the legislature and judiciary that upheld those term limits. The best solution now, Ambassador Carson said, is for a speedy return to civilian rule and an early free and fair election. One participant asked why the United States had taken a prominent role in urging the United Nations Security Council to impose sanctions against Eritrea and why it had not done more to ensure implementation of the Algiers Agreement that defined the border between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ambassador Carson responded that Washington’s door remains open to Eritrea. The United States would like to have better relations with Eritrea, and it also stands by implementation of the Algiers Agreement. He said he personally had reached out to Asmara on several occasions but was rebuffed each time. He emphasized that Eritrea’s actions in the region, especially Eritrea’s support for spoiler groups in Somalia, were hostile to several of its neighbors and in conflict with U.S. policy. In response to a question about the crisis of governance in Nigeria, Ambassador Carson was generally optimistic. President Umaru Yar’Adua has been ill for months and is being treated at a hospital in Saudi Arabia. His prolonged absence from Nigeria raised questions about his ability to govern the country. When the president becomes incapacitated, the Nigerian constitution calls for the vice president to become acting president. Although Nigeria’s institutions delayed in taking this action, they ultimately did so. As a result, former Vice President Goodluck Jonathan is now acting president of Nigeria. Ambassador Carson explained that the constitutional process worked in Nigeria as it should. A number of persons who asked questions expressed concern about setbacks in the democratic process in Africa. Ambassador Carson acknowledged that there had been some backsliding as underscored most recently in Niger and has also occurred recently in Guinea-Bissau, Guinea-Conakry, Madagascar and Mauritania. He was quick to point out, however, that there are also many governance success stories. He cited the cases of South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Malawi, Mali, Benin, Ghana, Tanzania and Mauritius, among others. One questioner asked what has happened to the Africa Command (AFRICOM). The United States announced it with such fanfare and suggested it would be a very different kind of military command with significant policy engagement. In the meantime, it seems to have disappeared from view. Ambassador Carson responded that until the creation of AFRICOM, Africa was the only large region of the world that did not have a separate military command. The European Command in Stuttgart had responsibility for Europe and most of Africa. The Central Command in Tampa, Florida, watched over much of the Middle East and Northeast Africa and the Pacific Command in Hawaii had responsibility for the Pacific region and several Indian Ocean Islands that are part of Africa. AFRICOM placed all of Africa except Egypt, which remains with the Central Command, under its jurisdiction. U.S. foreign policy is, however, the purview of the State Department. The military commands support U.S. policy and bring some additional resources to those parts of the world where they have responsibility. In the case of Sub-Saharan Africa, the African Bureau of the State Department has primary policy responsibility.

Report on arms flows and holdings in Sudan

In Dec. 2009, the Small Arms Survey based in Geneva, Switzerland, released a good summary of arms flows to the Sudan government, Southern Sudanese government and armed groups that oppose the governments. Titled "Supply and Demand: Arms Flows and Holdings in Sudan," it indicates that all parties are building up their supplies of arms. China and Iran account for more than 90 percent of all of the northern government's imports of small arms and ammunition. Chad, Libya and Eritrea have been arming non-state groups in Darfur. You can access the report in PDF format here. Image: A graphic from the report.

Extensive study of arms flow in Sudan

The Small Arms Survey released in September 2009 a report titled "Skirting the Law: Sudan's Post-CPA Arms Flows." It was drafted by Mike Lewis and funded by a variety of countries and organizations including the governments of Norway, Belgium, Canada, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and UK. This is the most extensive, recent study on the flow of arms to Sudan's Armed Forces, the Sudan People's Liberation Army and dissident groups in the region. For persons who follow the situation in Darfur and implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between northern and southern Sudan, it is essential reading. You can access it in PDF format here.

Interview with Defense News on China in Africa

Wendell Minnick interviewed me for his piece "China Comes to Africa" in Defense News (link to article). Here are the quotes:

Perhaps the most visible controversy over China's surging role came last April, when a Chinese ship bearing small arms for Zimbabwe was refused entry to South African ports. The cargo list included ammunition for AK-47 assault rifles, 1,500 40mm rockets, and 2,500 60mm and 81mm mortar shells.. "China received a black eye on this one," said David Shinn, former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia. "Chinese military equipment is popular in Africa because it is usually much cheaper than Western counterpart equipment."

And later on:

"China has far more peacekeepers in Africa than any other permanent member of the U.N. Security Council," said Shinn, an Africa affairs specialist with the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, Washington. "By comparison, the U.S. had 42 military personnel assigned to U.N. peacekeeping operations in Africa as of November 2008." ..."China has a long history of providing military assistance, selling arms and offering military training to African countries" going back to the 1960s, Shinn said. "In recent years, Chinese arms sales and grants have been higher than those of the U.S." to Africa.