Wednesday, April 13, 2011

The Chad-Sudan rapprochement

Flickr/UN photo from April 2008 depicting fighters of the Justice and Equality Movement.

The Small Arms Survey recently published an analysis of the rapprochement between Chad and Sudan that began in late 2009 and by mid-2010 had ended the proxy conflict.

Written by Jérôme Tubiana and released in March 2011, the report is titled “Renouncing the Rebels: Local and Regional Dimensions of Chad-Sudan Rapprochement” (PDF).

The report concluded that rapprochement has increased stability in the region. One of the main achievements of the détente is the weakening of the Chadian armed opposition to approximately 1,000 fighters as of early 2011.

While Chad has expelled the Justice and Equality Movement from its territory, the group has not been disarmed and is managing to survive by expanding its areas of operations and recruitment.

Despite the increased stability, there are no political solutions in sight to either the Chadian political crisis or the Darfur rebellion. The rapprochement has left dissatisfied combatants from both countries in the most unstable areas of the region, namely the Sudan-Chad-Central African Republic tri-border area and the contested border between North and South Sudan.

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