The Atlantic Council published in November 2025 a study titled "China's Economic Slowdown and Spillovers to Africa" by Matthew Mingey, Jeremy Smith, and Laura Gormley.
This report investigates how different projections of China's economic growth and structure over the next five years will affect trade and financial engagement with the African continent and what outcomes will mean for decision-makers.
The best long-term outcome for Africa is likely one in which China accepts the cost of reform to implement slower, but more stable growth. While countries could previously envision the net benefits of close trading relationships with China in 2030, trade now presents both opportunity and threat: opportunity in the form of cheap imports but complication in the form of persistent trade imbalances and overcapacity in manufacturing. Under any growth scenario, finance from China's banks and investors will continue to decline as China's domestic financial system evolves.
