Sudan and US Sanctions

World Politics Review posted on 26 November 2018 a commentary titled "Is the Trump Administration Offering to End Sudan's Isolation for the Wrong Reasons?" by Richard Downie, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Sudan has been on the US state sponsors of terrorism list since 1993. Discussions are taking place between Sudan and the US to remove Khartoum from this list, which both sides agree has not been justified for a number of years. The problem is that Washington has other concerns about Sudan dealing primarily with human rights that it is trying to improve before it removes Sudan from the state sponsors of terrorism list.

Situation in Eastern Sudan

The Sudan Democracy First Group released on 10 October 2017 the English-language translation of its extensive report initially released in Arabic titled "The Forgotten Territory: The Strategic Thinking for Change and Stability in Eastern Sudan."

The report begins with the assumption that since Sudan's independence, Eastern Sudan has continued to be a victim of the same development marginalization from which all of Sudan's peripheries are suffering. Despite the relative peace in Eastern Sudan, the ruling National Congress Party has aggravated the security, political and economic problems of the region, placing Eastern Sudan in a state of precarious stability and conflict.

Sudan over the Past Year

The Rift Valley Institute published on 25 May 2016 an overview titled "This Year in Sudan" by Douglas Johnson and Guma Kunda Komey. It summarizes key political and economic developments in Sudan over the past year.

Sudan: Survival of the National Congress Party

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 21 March 2016 a study titled "Sudan's Islamists: From Salvation to Survival."  It offers an analysis of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in the wake of the death of Sudan's leading Islamist, Hassan al-Turabi.

The ICG argues that in the absence of younger, credible Islamists to replace al-Turabi, the movement has been in terminal decline since he left the government in the late 1990s.  President Omar al-Bashir's strengthening of power around a small number of senior politicians, the military and security services has accompanied development of a more pragmatic government focused on regime survival.  At the same time, the NCP's shift from radical Islamism in its early days to more pragmatic politics has not been matched by normalization of relations with the West and it has looked to alternatives in the Gulf States, China, and India. 

This report is also available in Arabic.

Sudan's Elections

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published  on 21 April 2015 commentary titled "The Real Stakes in Sudan's Elections" by Berouk Mesfin, ISS in Addis Ababa.  Although the results of Sudan's recent elections will not be announced until 27 April, the outcome is a foregone conclusion.  Because major political parties boycotted the elections, Omar al-Bashir will be reelected by a wide margin.  The author suggests that al-Bashir may not be ready to step down when the next elections take place in 2020 and he will be 76 years old. 

Election in Sudan

The Institute for Security Studies published on 16 April 2015 a commentary titled "Now the Election Is Over, Will Sudanese Get Back to the Real Business?" by Peter Fabricius, Independent Newspapers, South Africa.

President Omar al-Bashir, leader of Sudan since 1989, was reelected in a low turnout election boycotted by most major opposition parties and candidates.  Now the question is whether Sudan can return to the interrupted process of national dialogue. 

Upcoming Sudan Elections Lack Credibility

Chatham House published on 10 April 2015 a commentary titled "Sudan Elections Undermined by Boycotts and Lacking Credibility" by Dame Rosalind Marsden. 

The author comments that it is a certainty President Omar al-Bashir will win the 13-15 April election.  Opposition political parties are boycotting the election.  Most other presidential candidates are virtually unknown and the process is overseen by the ruling National Congress Party national security apparatus. 

Will Sudan's Elections Derail National Dialogue?

The Institute for Security Studies in South Africa published on 26 March 2015 a commentary titled "Navigating a Bump in the Road: Will Sudan's Elections Derail National Dialogue?" by Peter Fabricius, foreign editor of South Africa's Independent Newspapers.  Fabricius offers a fairly negative account for Sudan's political prospects.

National Dialogue Process in Sudan

Enough published in December 2014 an analysis of the national dialogue process in Sudan titled "Starving War, Feeding Peace, and Setting the Table for National Dialogue in Sudan" by Akshaya Kumar and John Prendergast.   They conclude that the process at the moment is imbalanced, exclusive, and restrictive.  They suggest this could change if the Sudanese government decides to engage meaningfully and demonstrates its commitment by meeting six preconditions laid out by Enough. 

The six preconditions aimed at the National Congress Party (NCP) and the government of Sudan do beg the question:  are there no preconditions for those groups that oppose the NCP and the government?

Economic Problems in Sudan

Good Governance Africa published on 1 November 2014 a brief commentary titled "Slipping Away" by James Copnall.  Following the sharp reduction in Sudan's oil revenue, it describes a deteriorating economic situation, growing income inequality, and the disappearance of the middle class.  

Sudan over Last 25 Years: Success or Failed State?

The Pan Arab English-language edition of Asharq al-Awsat, which is printed simultaneously in 14 cities, published on 17 June 2014 two views of Sudan over the last 25 years.  The first by Amin Hassan Omar, a journalist, Sudanese presidential adviser and former minister enumerated Sudan's successes over the last 25 years.  The second by Shafie al-Khedr, a leftist leader, concluded that Sudan is a failed state.

Conflict in Sudan's Blue Nile State

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 18 June 2013 an extensive report titled "Sudan's Spreading Conflict (II): War in Blue Nile."  It covers all aspects of the ongoing conflict in Sudan's Blue Nile State.

The ICG concludes that Blue Nile State has become a major battleground for the ideological competition between two opposed models: Khartoum's attempts at unifying and centralizing the country with a dominant Arab-Islamic identity, which South Sudan's separation is paradoxically reviving, versus the rebel SPLM/A's and now Sudan Revolutionary Front's agenda for a more inclusive and devolved Sudan.  Attempts to resolve Blue Nile's past and current conflicts reflect Sudan's existential dilemma as to how best it should define itself.

Analysis of Power Structure in Sudan

Ahmed Kodouda, a senior program associate for East and the Horn of Africa Program at Freedom House, posted 22 July 2012 on Aljazeera a useful analysis of the current structure of power in Sudan. Kodouda divides the power base into three parts: the Sudanese Armed Forces, the Islamic Movement or Sudan's counterpart to the Muslim Brotherhood, and the leadership of the National Congress Party. He looks at this structure in light on the ongoing street protests in Sudan.

Click here to read the commentary.