Trump Continues Obama's Partial Lifting of Sudan Sanctions

The Washington Post published on 6 October 2017 an article titled "U.S. Lifts Sanctions on Sudan, Ending Two Decades of Embargo" by Carol Morello.

The Trump administration has extended the partial lifting of U.S. sanctions against Sudan, a decision that was first taken during the final weeks of the Obama administration. Instead of relying on punishment via sanctions, the new strategy is to use relief to encourage more change in Sudan.

Sudan over the Past Year

The Rift Valley Institute published on 25 May 2016 an overview titled "This Year in Sudan" by Douglas Johnson and Guma Kunda Komey. It summarizes key political and economic developments in Sudan over the past year.

Interview with VOA Mandarin about President Bashir

In a June 28 interview with the Mandarin service of the VOA concerning Sudanese President Omar Bashir’s visit to China, I made the following points:

• China was largely responsible for developing Sudan’s oil sector and is now a major beneficiary of its production. 
• China’s primary goal is to maintain good relations with both North Sudan, which has the infrastructure for exporting oil, and South Sudan, which holds 75 percent of the known oil reserves and will become independent on 9 July. 
• China is the most influential country in North Sudan and does not want to lose this influence while it continues to improve relations with South Sudan, whose president, Salva Kiir, first visited China in 2007. 
• There is not necessarily a direct link between the visit of President Bashir, who is under indictment by the International Criminal Court (ICC), and the upcoming independence of South Sudan. The visit underscores, however, that China, which is not signatory to the ICC, remains unconcerned about western criticism of Beijing’s receiving a visit by a leader who has been indicted by the ICC.

A critical analysis of the future of Northern Sudan

Sudanese president Omar al Bashir in the southern capital of Juba. Flickr/Al Jazeera English. 1/4/2011.

Yesterday, the International Crisis Group (ICG) released a negative analysis of the situation in northern Sudan titled “Divisions in Sudan’s ruling party and the threat to the country’s stability.”

It argues that the National Congress Party (NCP) has not addressed the root causes of Sudan’s chronic conflicts and has exacerbated ethnic and regional divisions. The country is deeply divided as it moves forward after the secession on 9 July 2011 of South Sudan.

The NCP has mobilized its security apparatus to suppress any revolts, has decided to end the debate about Sudan’s diversity and identity, remains committed to an Arab-Islamic identity for all Sudanese and is ready to sub-divide key states to accommodate political fiefdoms.

The ICG writes that power is increasingly centralized in a small clique around President Bashir. Deeply divided and more concerned with staying in power, the leadership more often reacts to events rather than implements a carefully conceived national program. The public dispute between Nafie Ali Nafie and Ali Osman Taha is representative of these divisions.

The ICG urges that the NCP accept a free and unhindered national dialogue to create a national stabilization program that includes defined principles for establishing an inclusive constitutional arrangement.

"China to send observers to Sudan as Beshir softens stance "

I'm quoted extensively in Molly Guinness's Radio France Internationale online and radio piece.

Here are the quotes:

"China is working very hard to in effect play both sides of the border," says David Shinn, the former deputy chief of mission at the US embassy in Khartoum. "It wants to maintain its very close relationship with the Beshir government and it wants to maintain as close a tie as possible to the southerners if they secede."

China has a consulate in Juba and has been providing some assistance to southerners over the last year, but Shinn says it will still have to work hard to create a good relationship with the south, should it become independent.

"They certainly will have an uphill climb in that they are well known to have been very strong military backers of the northern government and those feelings will not disappear quickly," says Shinn. "On the other hand, the Chinese have shown great propensity over the years to be able to make the switch to the new rulers in town."

...Shinn says China has enough invested in the north to want to maintain a good relationship with the north even though most of Sudan's resources come from the south. Beshir's diplomatic approach has given China a chance to work with the south without upsetting the Khartoum government.

"Who knows, behind the scenes maybe China has even been encouraging that," says Shinn.

Here's the audio:

David Shinn, George Washington University

(04:58)

Southern Sudan’s candidate for president pulls out of election

Al Jazeera asked me to comment yesterday on the announcement that Yasir Arman, the candidate for president of Sudan from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) had pulled out of the election on the grounds that it would not be free and fair. I responded that this is a setback for the democratic process but acknowledged that the election would be far from ideal in the best of circumstances. The April election will be Sudan's first real election since 1986. In addition to organizational issues, it will probably be impossible to organize balloting in Darfur and perhaps even some locations in southern Sudan. Nevertheless, abandonment of the race by the SPLM candidate virtually assures that President Bashir (pictured) will win on the first ballot. While there are several other presidential candidates, even collectively they are not likely to win more than 50 percent of the vote, which would force a second round of balloting for the top two candidates. Image: President Bashir in 2008. Credit: Ammar Abd Rabbo. Creative Commons licensed Flickr content. The SPLM and some Darfur groups called earlier for the postponement of the election. This poses a dilemma as the important vote by southerners on secession from Sudan is scheduled to take place in January 2011. If national elections do not take place in April, Bashir has said there will be no southern vote on secession in January 2011. The national elections may still go forward without an SPLM candidate. If that happens, the referendum could still take place on schedule. It is clear, however, that the SPLM is only interested in the vote for secession and not the outcome of the April national elections.

Sec. Clinton on U.S. policy on Sudan

BBC TV asked for my reaction yesterday to the new U.S. policy on Sudan announced by Secretary Clinton earlier in the day. I replied that it reflected a new reality on the ground in both Darfur and southern Sudan. The situation in Darfur has improved and the death rate has dropped dramatically. The situation concerning implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the war between northern and southern Sudan has become more worrisome. Although the policy proscribes the Obama administration from dealing directly with Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir, who is under indictment by the International Criminal Court for war crimes in Darfur, I did not believe this would hinder Washington's ability to engage with Sudan, which has designated senior officials to oversee negotiations concerning both Darfur and implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. When asked about the probable reaction of human rights groups to the new policy, I responded that some of them would be displeased but hoped they too would recognize the new reality on the ground.

Al Jazeera English interview on ICC and President Bashir

I interviewed live today with Al Jazeera English on the International Criminal Court's decision to serve an arrest warrant to President Bashir of Sudan. I made the following points:

The United States has supported the position by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to serve an arrest warrant on President Bashir of Sudan for committing crimes against humanity. At the same time, it puts the United States in a strange position since it never signed the ICC agreement. Serving of the warrant may well worsen the situation in Darfur and even impact adversely implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the war between northern and southern Sudan. Interestingly, the coalition of evangelicals, liberals, human rights activists, and others who have supported this action against Bashir recently experienced a dissenting view from one of their own. The Reverend Franklin Graham wrote an oped in the March 3 issue of The New York Times that called on the international community to put peace in Sudan ahead of justice. Graham argued that Bashir's arrest could threaten the south's elections and referendum and hurl the country back into civil war.

Hopefully, Al Jazeera will post the video clip on its YouTube channel. If and when it does so, I will embed the video here. Image: Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashirat the 20th session of The New Partnership for Africa's Development in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Jan. 31, 2009. Source: U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jesse B. Awalt/Released, via Wikipedia.