Magical Policy Thinking on Ending Conflict in Sudan

 Just Security published on 12 August 2024 an analysis titled "The Year(s) of Magical Thinking on Sudan" by Payton Knopf, former US deputy special envoy for Sudan.

Three fallacies have contributed to the current crisis in Sudan.  First, power-sharing between civilian and military actors or exclusively military actors is a basis for a stable political order.  Second, ceasefires end violence or are a prerequisite for doing so.  Third, political legitimacy is less important than coercive force.  Belief in these fallacies has resulted in US policy that constitutes magical thinking.

The Crisis in Sudan

 The Council on Foreign Relations posted on 22 November 2021 a commentary titled "The Crisis in Sudan: What to Know" by Michelle Gavin.

This is an update on the situation in Sudan following agreement by the generals to reinstate civilian Prime Minister Hamdok to his position.  

Sudan: The Fall of a Dictator

The Journal of Democracy published in October 2019 an article titled "Sudan's Uprising: The Fall of a Dictator" by Mai Hassan, University of Michigan, and Ahmed Kodouda, George Washington University.

The article traces the reign and downfall of Omar al-Bashir. The authors suggest that the security forces continue to threaten the nascent democratization process ushered in by the popular uprising.

UAE Behind Removal of Former Sudanese President?

Reuters published an in-depth account on 3 July 2019 titled "Abandoned by the UAE, Sudan's Bashir Was Destined To Fall" by Khalid Abdelaziz, Michael Georgy, and Maha El Dahan.

The authors argue that former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir mishandled a critical relationship with the United Arab Emirates and at the end of 2018, as Sudan's economy imploded and protesters took to the streets, Bashir found himself without this powerful and wealthy friend.

Can Sudan's Revolution Be Saved?

World Politics Review published on 17 June 2019 an analysis titled "Can Sudan's Revolution Be Saved?" by Richard Downie, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The author argues that swift action is needed to resume talks between the TMC and the protesters and pressure applied to the TMC to approach the negotiations in good faith.

Sudan's Uncertain Transition

The Institute for Security Studies published on 23 April 2019 an interview with Atta El-Battahani, University of Khartoum, titled "Sudan's Uncertain Transition."

Atta El-Battahani discusses the root causes of the overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir and the implications of this development for Sudan's future.

Sudan's Revolution: The Hard Work Begins

World Politics Review posted on 16 April 2019 an analysis titled "After Bashir's Ouster, the Hard Work of Sudan's Revolution Has Only Begun" by Richard Downie, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The author concludes that Sudan's revolution is far from over and could still be thwarted, but protesters have demonstrated their power to shape events and created an opportunity to chart a better future for their country.

Sudan's Coup and the Future

Al Jazeera posted on 11 April 2019 a 25-minute podcast titled "Sudan Coup: Will Military Council's Actions Satisfy Protesters?" with Hafiz Mohamed, Justice Africa in Khartoum, Hajooj Kuka in Nairobi, member of Girifna, a non-violent resistance movement in Sudan, and me.

Mohamed and Kuka argued that the military's two year transition plan to civilian rule is totally unacceptable. I urged immediate negotiations between the military and protesters to bring civilian members into the government now and then negotiate a faster transition to complete civilian rule.

What Can the US Do for Sudan?

Brookings posted on 10 April 2019 a commentary titled "Seizing Sudan's Moment of Change: How Congress Can Help" by Zach Vertin.

Although written before the toppling today of President Omar al-Bashir by the military, the commentary offers some useful steps the United States could take assuming there is agreement between those who are protesting and the military that now controls the government.

Is Sudan on the Verge of History?

African Arguments posted on 8 April 2019 a commentary titled "Sudan Uprising: We're on the Verge of History, Even As the World Looks Away" by S. Ahmed, a doctor in Khartoum.

While the author does not know how the drama in Khartoum will end, he argues that those outside Sudan must pay closer attention to the situation before it is too late.

Sudan: Omar Al-Bashir's Power Calculus

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 11 March 2019 an analysis titled "Sudan's Shifting Calculus of Power" by Luka Kuol.

President Omar al-Bashir's decision to declare a state of emergency and put military personnel in key governmental positions signals an intention to use greater repression to quell the popular protests that began in December 2018. It also suggests that he sees the military as providing a safer personal exit strategy should he be forced to give up power.

No End to Protests in Sudan

Chatham House posted on 15 March 2019 a commentary titled "Pressure from the People in Sudan" by Dame Rosalind Marsden.

The author concludes that the protests in Sudan have become a war of attrition, with neither side willing to give up. What is clear, however, is that pressure for change will continue to come from the Sudanese street, and that the government has not articulated answers to the root causes of the crisis.

Sudan's Crackdown Could Be End of Regime

The Washington Post published on 3 March 2019 an article titled "Omar al-Bashir Has Ruled Sudan for 30 Years. His Latest Crackdown Could Be His Last" by Muhammed Osman and Max Bearak.

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir recently reshuffled his government, replaced almost all of Sudan's 18 state governors with army officers, and declared a state of emergency in response to ongoing street protests. According to the article, many believe this may be a last, desperate and unsuccessful effort to save his failing regime.

Crisis in Sudan Grows

The International Crisis Group published on 26 February 2019 a statement titled "Bashir Moves Sudan to Dangerous New Ground."

The statement argues that President Omar al-Bashir's declaration of a state of emergency will not save his unpopular regime. It urges Bashir to step down so all sides can work to create a broadly inclusive transitional government.

Why Protests in Sudan Are Different This Time

The Washington-based Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 28 January 2018 a commentary titled "Understanding the Significance of the Protests in Sudan" by Luka Kuol, former minister of cabinet affairs for Sudan.

The author says the current protests in Sudan are a manifestation of the structural economic, political, and social fragility of the Sudanese state. Unlike previous uprisings, these protests have been engineered by the new forces of youth and middle-class professionals who are well informed, connected, and equipped with enabling technology and social media that the regime is ill-positioned to contain.

An Analysis of Protests in Sudan

The London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) published on 24 January 2019 an analysis titled "Sudan's Protests: Something New?" by Michael Jones, research analyst at RUSI.

The author concluded that whether the uprising in Sudan will achieve critical mass or President Omar al-Bashir can cling to power is still in the balance. But unless Bashir can restore order, mollify demonstrators, and satisfy his security forces, it may be a race to see which finds him disposable first.

Will Sudan's Protest Movement Bring Down the Government?

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) posted on 21 January 2019 a commentary titled "Will Sudan's Latest Protests Bring Down Bashir?" by Andrews Atta-Asamoah, ISS Addis Ababa.

The author concluded that if the loyalty of the army, the National Intelligence and Security Service, and other security apparatus starts changing, President Omar al-Bashir's days will be numbered. But until that happens, he will remain defiant and could survive this round of protests.

Can Bashir Survive Continuing Protests?

World Politics Review published on 15 January 2019 a commentary titled "Can Bashir, a Brutal Survivor, ride Out the Growing Wave of Protests in Sudan?" by Richard Downie, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The author concludes that street protests alone are unlikely to topple the regime of Omar al-Bashir. But if the protests continue, military figures close to Bashir might conclude he has become a liability and act to remove him before it becomes too late to save themselves.

A Peaceful Transition in Sudan?

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 14 January 2019 an analysis titled "Improving Prospects for a Peaceful Transition in Sudan."

The ICG concludes that President Omar al-Bashir is running out of time. Unable to reverse the economic deterioration, he must rely on repression to contain a population increasingly enraged at worsening living conditions. But the harsher his repression, the more probable his relations with the West deteriorate again and the farther the funds necessary to turn around the economy slip from his reach. Bashir may well survive this round of protests. But if he does, it will almost certainly be at the cost of further economic decline, greater popular anger, more protests and even tougher crackdowns. At some point, his departure appears inevitable. Outside powers should do everything possible to prevent violence in the meantime, work for as smooth a transition as possible and find him an exit.

Is Sudan's President Al-Bashir Nearing the End?

African Arguments published on 7 January 2019 an analysis titled "Sudan Uprising III: What 1964 and 1985 Tell Us About Today's Protests" by Willow Berridge, Newcastle University.

Sudan removed authoritarian regimes in 1964 and 1985 through popular protests. While there are many similarities with today's protests, President al-Bashir has learned from the past. In addition, the Islamists are divided, although they will likely play a key role in the outcome.