UN Dispatch posted on 27 April 2023 a 27-minute podcast titled "How International Diplomacy Failed to Stop Sudan's Slide to Civil War" by Mark Leon Goldberg speaking with Cameron Hudson, Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The podcast provides the background of relations between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, role of the international community in efforts to transition Sudan to civilian government, and the future prospects for Sudan.
Foreign Affairs posted on 27 April 2023 a commentary titled "Sudan's Descent Into Chaos" by Alex de Waal.
De Waal describes the leaders of the two contending Sudanese military organizations, the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, as "bosses of kleptocratic cartels." After summarizing the leadup to the conflict, he is then critical of the failed efforts by the international community, especially the United States, to transition Sudan to civilian government.
Comment: It is easy to criticize after the fact a policy that fails. Alas, if only the critics could provide us with the magic sauce that would have successfully solved the issue.
Responsible Statecraft published on 20 April 2023 a commentary titled "Sudan Is Tearing Itself Apart and Washington Lost Its Capacity to Help" by Alex de Waal.
The author identifies the numerous actors in the international community who were trying to prevent Sudan from reaching the terrible situation where it finds itself. He argues that these international actors failed to prevent the conflict because they were going in different directions. No one wanted this outcome, but no one was coordinating the signaling to prevent it from happening.
Comment: There are some conflicts that outsiders cannot prevent. Short of militarily occupying Sudan with a huge international force, something that no one was prepared to do and which would have resulted in a host of new problems anyway, this conflict was probably destined to happen. The international community can be accused of engaging in the fantasy that these two Sudanese military organizations were prepared to turn over power to a civilian government, but this conflict did not occur because of ineffective international coordination.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) posted on 22 April 2023 a 52 minute podcast titled "War in Sudan" with Richard Atwood speaking with ICG senior Sudan analyst Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa project director Alan Boswell.
Sudan has never seen a conflict like this where most of the fighting is occurring in Khartoum and other major cities. It will likely result in a humanitarian disaster. The longer it goes on, the more likely it will be internationalized. The conflict demonstrates how unstable the power structure has been in Sudan.
The Middle East Institute published on 17 April 2023 my brief titled "Military Power Struggle Explodes in Sudan."
My remarks offer a brief background of the conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and efforts by the Biden administration to encourage a return to civilian government in the country. This conflict would seem to doom any prospect for a return to civilian rule in the foreseeable future.
The New York Times published on 15 April 2023 an article titled "Rival Generals Unleash Fighting in Sudan, Dashing Dreams of Democracy" by Declan Walsh.
The Washington Post published on 16 April 2023 an article titled "69 Civilians Killed in Sudan as Military and Rival Group Fight for Control" by Katharine Houreld and John Hudson.
The articles in the two newspapers provide useful background on the struggle between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces to control Sudan, ending any immediate hope for a democratic transition in the country.
