AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 12 February 2026 an analysis titled "Ethiopia" by Michael DeAngelo, Liam Karr, and Anahita Asudani.
The Ethiopian government in Addis Ababa is increasing its troop strength near Tigray Region indicating this may be a prelude to a military campaign. Eritrea is backing the Tigray People's Liberation Front and has troops inside Tigray Region. In the event of a government attack, Eritrea is expected to side with the Tigray Defense Forces,
