Ethiopia Insight published on 20 August 2025 a commentary titled "Strategic Reversals: Abiy's Miscalculation and the Tigray-Eritrea Realignment" by Yonas Nigussie, political economist.
The author argues that Tigray Region, sidelined by the collapse of the Pretoria Agreement, is fighting for survival. Eritrea, haunted by fears of Ethiopian expansionism, seeks a strategic buffer. Internal power struggles have fractured the Tigray People's Liberation Front. One Tigrayan faction has signaled its willingness to align with Eritrea in an unholy alliance against the federal government of Ethiopia. This could spark another bloody civil war.
