Brookings published on 11 March 2025 a commentary titled "Can China Fill the Void in Foreign Aid?" by Yun Sun.
China's foreign aid has consistently been a fraction of America's. The highly publicized Belt and Road Initiative is mostly a commercial activity with a small percentage of development finance. China's global foreign aid budget for 2024 was $2.85 billion. Traditionally, about half the budget goes to countries in Africa. In 2023, USAID's global budget was about $42 billion, and the State Department provided another $19 billion.
Not only has the United States provided far more aid, but nearly all of it is in the form of grants while the largest percentage of China's aid is the concessionary part of loans. The dismantlement of USAID by the Trump administration will leave China with more influence in a smaller space, but it doesn't mean China can step in to fill the void. In addition, USAID's portfolio of humanitarian assistance does not overlap with China's capabilities. China will likely seek political, diplomatic, and economic returns for any increase in its assistance. Most significantly, Beijing will work to exploit the opportunity of American withdrawal to portray the US as the irresponsible great power.
