Ethiopia, Egypt, and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy published on 28 August 2018 an article titled "Breaking the Stalemate in the Egypt-Ethiopia Dam Dispute" by Barak Barfi, research fellow at New America.

The author rightly notes that the critical issue is the water fill rate behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia because of the impact the decreased water flow will have on downstream Egypt. While Egypt and Ethiopia have a good relationship and are trying to find a solution amicably, he argues they have not made much headway.

Water Security and the Horn of Africa

Foreign Affairs published on 9 August 2018 an article titled "Water Wars on the Nile" by Daniel Benaim and Michael Wahid Hanna.

The article looks at the increasingly complicated water issues in the Horn of Africa concerning construction of Africa's largest dam on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia and food security needs of both the Horn of Africa countries and the Gulf States. On top of this are security interests of Turkey, Egypt, and the Gulf States. The authors argue the US should be giving more high level attention to this potentially explosive mix.

Nile Water Diplomacy

The Institute for Security studies published on 2 February 2018 an analysis titled "Will Egypt-Ethiopia-Sudan Diplomacy Placate Other Nile Countries?" by Duncan E. Omondi Gumba, regional coordinator in Nairobi for the ENACT project.

The leaders of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan recently met to discuss Nile water issues after weeks of frosty ties between Egypt and Sudan. The author concluded that any talks on this issue are doomed unless a basin-wide approach involving all 11 riparian states is followed.

Sudan-Egypt Tension Complicates Ethiopian Dam Project

Foreign Policy published on 11 January 2018 an article titled "Egypt-Sudan Spat Muddies Prospects for Deal at Big Nile Dam" by Keith Johnson.

The author suggests that problems in relations between Egypt and Sudan may complicate negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia on the issue of filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, which supplies water to both Sudan and Egypt.

An Egyptian Perspective on Nile Water

Pambazuka News published on 7 September 2017 a commentary titled "Egypt and Controlling the Nile: From Mythologies to Real Politics" by Hamdy A. Hassan, Zayed University and Cairo University.

While the author analyzes the Nile water question from an Egyptian point of view, he concludes there is a dire need for a strategic dialogue between Egypt and Ethiopia where all issues of common concern are discussed. He added this may necessitate a conciliatory political and media discourse vis-a-vis Ethiopia and the Nile Basin countries as the language of escalation and threats has always proven counterproductive.

Egypt and Nile Water Issues

World Politics Review published on 7 July 2017 an article titled "How Egypt Is Slowly Losing Its Hold Over the Nile River" by Julian Hattem, a journalist based in Kampala, Uganda.

The author argues that downstream Nile Basin countries, especially Ethiopia and Sudan, are gradually seizing the initiative from Egypt when it comes to use of Nile waters.

Nightmare Scenario for the Horn of Africa

Foreign Policy published on  17 March 2016 a piece titled "Africa's $700 Billion Problem Waiting to Happen" by Alex de Waal. 

The author argues that the Horn of Africa is central to the world's maritime trade and that the region is beginning to fall apart. 

South Sudan: Neighbors Play Favorites

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published on 10 June 2015 an analysis titled "The Regionalisation of the South Sudanese Crisis" by Berouk Mesfin, a senior researcher at ISS.

He writes that Uganda and Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea, Kenya and Egypt support different proxies and their competition could plunge the region into chaos.  As South Sudan struggles with a military and political crisis, the Horn of Africa has turned into a region of growing geopolitical significance with major military, diplomatic, energy, and water issues.

Grand Renaissance Dam: Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan

Foreign Policy published on 27 March 2015 a commentary titled "A Ray of Light for Africa's Dam of Discord" by Keith Johnson.  The author suggests that recent talks among the leaders of Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan on the Grand Renaissance Dam may allow Ethiopia and Egypt to pursue a more productive relationship, at least as far as security is concerned. 

Nile Waters Dispute Heading towards Peaceful Solution?

The Washington-based Institute for Defense Analysis published on 20 November 2014 a brief analysis titled "Nile Waters Dispute Tips toward a Peaceful Solution" by George Ward, editor of Africa Watch.

Ward concludes that Egypt's negotiating stance and public posture on the Nile waters question has moderated since the inauguration of Egyptian President al-Sisi.  Negotiations are no longer about whether there will be an Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, but about the size, environmental and hydrological impact, and fill rate of the structure that will be completed.  

Egypt, Ethiopia, and the Nile

The Chicago Journal of International Law published in its Summer 2014 edition an article titled "Egypt, Ethiopia, and the Nile: The Economics of International Water Law" by Daniel Abebe, University of Chicago Law School. 

The article argues that an economics approach focusing on state preferences and incentives for compliance with international law in a world without a central enforcement mechanism will better illuminate the obstacles that Egypt and Ethiopia face and the likelihood of legal resolution of the conflict. 

Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam

The Washington Quarterly, which is now published by George Washington University, Summer 2014 edition contained an article titled "Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam: Ending Africa's Oldest Geopolitical Rivalry?" by Goitom Gebreluel, International Law and Policy Institute in Oslo.  The author argues that Ethiopian and Egyptian rivalry is centered on a dispute over Nile waters and constitutes the longest rivalry in the region. 

Egypt, Ethiopia and the Grand Renaissance Dam

The Inter Press Service published on 21 March 2014 an article titled "Egypt Gets Muscular over Nile Dam" by Cam McGrath.  While the article is mostly a rehash of information that has been widely reported, it suggests that Egyptian security sources say Egypt's military leadership is prepared to use force to protect its stake in Nile water.

Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan and Nile Water

Al Jazeera published on 6 February 2014 an article titled "Egypt and Ethiopia Face Off over Nile Water" by Hassen Hussein, assistant professor at St. Mary's University of Minnesota.  Hassen, a critic of Ethiopia's internal policies, argues that Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan should be more concerned about internal issues than conflict among each other. 

Egypt's Nile Delta Slowly Disappearing

The Inter Press Service news agency published a brief article on 29 January 2014 titled "Nile Delta Disappearing Beneath the Sea" by Cam McGrath.  It points out that the highly productive Nile Delta of Egypt is disappearing for three reasons: coastal erosion, saltwater infiltration, and rising sea levels.  Much of the problem is due to the construction of the Aswan Dam on the Nile River above the Delta, which now blocks about 120 million tons of silt annually from reaching and replenishing the Nile Delta.  Most of this silt comes from the Blue Nile and other tributaries in Ethiopia.

International Journal of Ethiopian Studies

The 2013 issue of the International Journal of Ethiopian Studies is now available.  It contains the following articles:

• The Dichotomy between Reality and Rhetoric in African Politics: Placing Ethiopia in the 'Continental' Pan-African Movement by Belete Belachew Yihun.
• Critical Reflections on an Oromo Aphorism and Emancipation by Maimire Mennasemay.
• The Politics of the Imposed and Negotiation of the Emerging Nile Basin Regime by Aaron Tesfaye.
• The Quest for Equitable Resolution of the Nile Waters Dispute: Wandering in the Wilderness? by Dereje Zeleke Mekonnen.
• Politics and Religion in Haile Selassie's Ethiopia: Apogee and Crisis of a Confessional African State (1916-1974) by Paolo Borruso.

You can order a copy for $25 by going to the Tsehai Publishers website at www.ijes.tsehaipublishers.comwww.ijes.tsehaipublishers.com.

Turkish View of Nile Water Issues

Traditional reed boat on Blue Nile river. Flickr/Marta Semu

Turkey's Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies published on 7 June 2013 a brief analysis titled "Egypt, Ethiopia and Blue Nile." The author is Seyfi Kilic, a research specialist in the Water Research Program.  Although some of the English is a bit odd, it offers a useful analysis from a Turkish perspective.

AP Story on Nile Water and Renaissance Dam

AP published on 2 July 2013 an article by Kirubel Tadesse titled "The Big Story: Ethiopia's Big Nile Dam Is Compared to Hoover Dam."  The article notes that Ethiopia will start filling the reservoir behind the dam in 2014, a process that will take five to six years.  This is the most sensitive issue as concerns Egypt because it will hold back some water from reaching the Aswan Dam until the reservoir is full and the Blue Nile flows normally again.  The volume of water flowing down the Blue Nile varies from year to year.  Consequently, it seems to me this factor will have to be taken into account during the filling of the reservoir so as not to cause unnecessary harm to downstream Sudanese and Egyptian interests.  High water volume in the Blue Nile could speed up the filling process; low water volume could slow it down. 

The article quotes my views on the prospect of future conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt over construction of the Renaissance Day. 

Nile Water Discussion

Press TV in the United Kingdom asked me to join a discussion on Nile water issues.  The program titled "Is the Water War between Egypt and Ethiopia Getting Out of Control?" aired on 3 July 2013.  The moderator of the Africa Today program was Henry Bonsu.  The other panelists on the 25 minute program were Assefa Seifu, former commander in the Ethiopian army, and Wafik Mustapha, president of the Egyptian community association in the UK.

Hydropower Politics: The Struggle for Control of the Nile

The July 2013 issue of Africa in Fact: The Journal of Good Governance Africa has a useful analysis titled "Hydropower Politics: The Struggle for Control of the World's Longest River" by Elissa Jobson, a freelance journalist based in Ethiopia.