Nile River, Basin, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and Climate Change

Nature Climate Change published in January 2023 a study titled "Cooperative Adaptive Management of the Nile River with Climate and Socio-Economic Uncertainties" by ten experts in the United Kingdom. 

This technical study presents a planning framework for adaptive management of the Nile infrastructure system, combining climate projections; hydrological, river system and economy-wide simulators; and artificial intelligence multi-objective design and machine learning algorithms.  It concludes that if Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt compromise cooperatively and adaptively in managing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the national-level economic and resilience benefits are substantial, especially under climate projections with the most extreme streamflow changes.  

Ethiopia Invites Sudan and Egypt to Appoint Blue Nile Dam Monitors; They Refuse

 Ethiopia's minister of water, irrigation and energy in a 9 April 2021 tweet from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs invited Sudan and Egypt "to nominate focal persons/dam operators to exchange data among the three countries with regards to the second-year filling [of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam] which will take place in July and August 2021."

Reuters published on 11 April 2021 an article titled "Egypt, Sudan Reject Ethiopian Proposal for Data Sharing on Renaissance Dam."  Egypt and Sudan rejected the Ethiopian proposal, arguing they want a legally binding agreement before there is any additional filling of the reservoir behind the dam.

Comment:  The Ethiopian proposal would seem to be a reasonable confidence building measure as negotiations continue.  What are Sudan and Egypt afraid of?  

Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam and Climate Change

Ethiopia Insight posted on 25 January 2020 an analysis titled "Flexibility Must Be Foremost in GERD Treaty" by Mahemud Tekuya, University of the Pacific.

The author argues that Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt should allocate Nile water resources in accordance with the changing social, economic, or climatic conditions existing in the Nile Basin. If the volume of water increases due to heavy rains and climate change, there will be a need to hold back more water in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in order to prevent flooding. If poor rains significantly reduce the flow of water, there may be a need to release more water. Flexibility is crucial in adapting to climate change.

Tripartite Blue Nile Dam Talks

The Middle East Institute published on 21 January 2020 a brief update titled "There's Still a Long Way to Go, but Nile Dam Talks Are Finally Making Some Progress" by Mirette F. Mabrouk.

Washington hosted in mid-January officials from Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan in an effort to resolve issues surrounding the filling of the reservoir behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River. The three parties agreed that filling of the reservoir would occur over stages and take into account the hydrological conditions of the Nile, that it would take place during the rainy season, and that it would address Ethiopia's electricity generation needs while providing for mitigation avenues for Egypt and Sudan in times of prolonged dry spells or drought. The final talks are scheduled for 28-29 January in Washington. As usual, the devil is in the details.

Experts Report on Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam

International Rivers Network, an environmental advocacy group in California, just published the May 2013 International Panel of Experts 48-page report on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project.  There were two experts each from Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan and four international experts on the panel.  While the highly technical report contains no shocking surprises, it does raise a number of concerns.

The findings and recommendations begin on page 20.  The concerns center around the spillway for the main dam, several issues dealing with the saddle dam, evaporation in the reservoir behind the dam, and the impact of climate change.  Page 41 contains the key adverse and positive impacts for Egypt.  There are a number of recommendations for more study.

You can find further comment on the document on the blog of Jennifer Veilleux, an Oregon State University PhD student who is studying the Renaissance Dam.  

On 3 April 2014, International Rivers Network commented on the report by the experts. On 11 April 2014, the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs then issued a rebuttal to the analysis offered by International Rivers.