Experts Report on Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam

International Rivers Network, an environmental advocacy group in California, just published the May 2013 International Panel of Experts 48-page report on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project.  There were two experts each from Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan and four international experts on the panel.  While the highly technical report contains no shocking surprises, it does raise a number of concerns.

The findings and recommendations begin on page 20.  The concerns center around the spillway for the main dam, several issues dealing with the saddle dam, evaporation in the reservoir behind the dam, and the impact of climate change.  Page 41 contains the key adverse and positive impacts for Egypt.  There are a number of recommendations for more study.

You can find further comment on the document on the blog of Jennifer Veilleux, an Oregon State University PhD student who is studying the Renaissance Dam.  

On 3 April 2014, International Rivers Network commented on the report by the experts. On 11 April 2014, the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs then issued a rebuttal to the analysis offered by International Rivers.

Egypt, Ethiopia and the Grand Renaissance Dam

The Inter Press Service published on 21 March 2014 an article titled "Egypt Gets Muscular over Nile Dam" by Cam McGrath.  While the article is mostly a rehash of information that has been widely reported, it suggests that Egyptian security sources say Egypt's military leadership is prepared to use force to protect its stake in Nile water.

Globalizing Nile Water Issues

The Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA) published a commentary that first appeared in Al-Ahram Weekly on 13 February 2014 titled "Globalizing Water Projects" by Helmi Sharawy, former director of the Arab and African Research Centre in Cairo. 

The author argues for a global approach to African water issues, including differences among countries in the Nile Basin. 

Egypt Loses Momentum on Nile Issues

The Voice of America ran a useful update on 15 July 2013 by David Arnold on the Nile water issue titled "Nile Power Shifts Away from Egypt."  The thrust of the article is that Egypt has been losing influence over Nile water issues while upstream countries have been gaining influence.

Shinn Interview with Awramba Times

The Awramba Times interviewed me on 5 July 2013. The hour long program moderated by Dawit Kebede and Yared Tibebu aired on 21 July 2013. Issues covered included Ethiopia-US relations, Meles Zenawi, Hailemariam Desalegn, President Obama's trip to Africa, Susan Rice, China-Africa relations, Nile water, Renaissance Dam, Egypt, human rights, neocolonialism and ethnic politics.

Turkish View of Nile Water Issues

Traditional reed boat on Blue Nile river. Flickr/Marta Semu

Turkey's Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies published on 7 June 2013 a brief analysis titled "Egypt, Ethiopia and Blue Nile." The author is Seyfi Kilic, a research specialist in the Water Research Program.  Although some of the English is a bit odd, it offers a useful analysis from a Turkish perspective.

AP Story on Nile Water and Renaissance Dam

AP published on 2 July 2013 an article by Kirubel Tadesse titled "The Big Story: Ethiopia's Big Nile Dam Is Compared to Hoover Dam."  The article notes that Ethiopia will start filling the reservoir behind the dam in 2014, a process that will take five to six years.  This is the most sensitive issue as concerns Egypt because it will hold back some water from reaching the Aswan Dam until the reservoir is full and the Blue Nile flows normally again.  The volume of water flowing down the Blue Nile varies from year to year.  Consequently, it seems to me this factor will have to be taken into account during the filling of the reservoir so as not to cause unnecessary harm to downstream Sudanese and Egyptian interests.  High water volume in the Blue Nile could speed up the filling process; low water volume could slow it down. 

The article quotes my views on the prospect of future conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt over construction of the Renaissance Day. 

Nile Water Discussion

Press TV in the United Kingdom asked me to join a discussion on Nile water issues.  The program titled "Is the Water War between Egypt and Ethiopia Getting Out of Control?" aired on 3 July 2013.  The moderator of the Africa Today program was Henry Bonsu.  The other panelists on the 25 minute program were Assefa Seifu, former commander in the Ethiopian army, and Wafik Mustapha, president of the Egyptian community association in the UK.

Whose Nile Is It?

Writing for Frontline on 26 June 2013, John Cherian offers a useful and generally accurate summary of the Nile water issue titled "Whose Nile is It?"

Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam, Blue Nile Water Flow and Impact on Egypt

Writing for the Christian Science Monitor on 25 June 2013, William Davison produced an excellent analysis on the impact of filling the reservoir behind Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam, which is now under construction.

Rendition of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam/Wikipedia

Titled "Will Ethiopia's 'Grand' New Dam Steal Nile Waters from Egypt?" the article addresses the critical issue that impacts Egypt:  how long will it take to fill the reservoir behind the Renaissance Dam and how much water will this process siphon off annually until the reservoir is filled.

Once the reservoir is filled, the Blue Nile flows as before with only an adjustment for evaporation from the reservoir.  But this could be an advantage because the rate of evaporation will be lower than if the water is stored in the much hotter area behind the Aswan High Dam.

For those of you interested in the technical aspects of this hugely important issue, I recommend a 2008 study titled "Sediment in the Nile River System" by Abdalla Abdelsalam Ahmed and Usama Hamid A.E. Ismail and a 2010 article in the Nile Basin Water Science and Engineering Journal titled "Investigation of Step Trends of the Nile River Flow Time Series" by Ageel I. Bushara and Tagreed Abdelrahim.  All of these authors are Sudanese.  They explain the importance of the variable flow of all Nile tributaries from one year to another and the timing of the high and low flows of the rivers.  

Heat Over the Nile

Solomon Ayele Dersso, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa, provided on 18 June 2013 a balanced commentary titled "Heat over the Nile" on the issues surrounding the Renaissance Dam.

Engineering and Environmental Aspects of the Renaissance Dam

Asfaw Beyene, professor of mechanical engineering and director of the Center for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency at San Diego State University, published on 14 June 2013 an informative commentary titled "Reflections on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam."  The focus is on the engineering and environmental aspects of the dam. 

Bloomberg Article on Nile Water

Bloomberg published on 17 June 2013 an extensive article titled "Egypt's Nile Threats Weaken to Secure Water Case: Shinn."  The authors are William Davison and Salma El Wardany. 

William Davison did a followup article on 18 June 2013 titled "Ethiopia Agrees with Egypt, Sudan to Study Nile-Dam Impact."

Interview on Nile Water

EthiopiaFirst.com asked me to respond to several questions concerning the Nile water issue.  The website published the interview on 14 June 2013 titled "Discussion with Amb. David H. Shinn on the Issue of Nile Water."

Why There Won't Be a Nile Water War

Harry Verhoeven, who teaches African politics at the University of Oxford, wrote a piece on 13 June 2013 for Aljazeera titled "Why a 'Water War' Over the Nile River Won't Happen."  It is a balanced piece that emphasizes the need for regional integration. 

In June 2011, he wrote a detailed report for Chatham House titled "Black Gold for Blue Gold? Sudan's Oil, Ethiopia's Water and Regional Integration."  I ran it on the blog in 2011; it is worth revisiting.   The focus is on the Ethiopia-Sudan relationship, but it is relevant to Ethiopia's relations with Egypt.  It contains a complete listing of actual and proposed hydropower projects in Sudan and Ethiopia. 

Egyptian and Ethiopian Views on Renaissance Dam and Nile Waters

There seems to be no end to the war of words over construction of the Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia and related Nile water issues.  I have selected three recent articles that represent the Egyptian position, Ethiopian position and one that looks at both sides.

1. The first is a Bloomberg article published on 10 June 2013 titled "Egypt Urges Cooperation on Ethiopia's Nile River Hydropower Dam" that quotes Egyptian Prime Minister Hisham Qandil.  The headline is misleading in that the article opens by noting that Qandil said his government opposes Ethiopia's construction of a dam on the [Blue] Nile River.
2. The second is a piece that appeared on 12 June 2013 in Pambazuka News titled "Reasonable Discussion of Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam" by Fasil Amdetsion, senior policy and international legal advisor in Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  Although measured, it looks at the issue from the perspective of Ethiopian interests.
3. The third is an article titled "Ethiopia 'Frustrated' by Egyptian Statements on GERD" in the 12 June 2013 Daily News, Egypt's only daily independent newspaper in English.  It tries to look at both the Egyptian and Ethiopian arguments. 

More Fiction Than Fact Being Reported on Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam

Much of the reporting in the past week on Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam, under construction on the Blue Nile, has been inflammatory and misinformed.  The following two items struck me as balanced  reporting: Ziad Khalifeh's 6 June 2013 piece in the Arabian Gazette titled "Nile Dams--Egypt, Ethiopia, Look for Safe Ground" and an Associated Press piece dated 3 June 2013 titled "Panel Report: Nile Dam Won't Affect Egypt."

Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan and Nile Water

The Egyptian private daily newspaper, Youm 7, asked me to respond to a series of questions concerning Egypt's relations with Ethiopia and the impact of Ethiopia's new Renaissance Dam on Egypt.  I submitted my responses on 1 June 2013, before the Egyptian public relations debacle on this issue noted in a posting below dated 5 June 2013.  Youm 7 published the interview translated into Arabic on 6 June 2013.  You can also read the original English version titled "Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan and Nile Water."

Egyptian Politicians Publicly Call for Sabotaging Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam

In what has to rank as one of the major public relations disasters in 2013, Egyptian politicians during a meeting with President Mohammed Mursi were caught on live television calling for the sabotage and even destruction of the Renaissance Dam now under construction by Ethiopia on the Blue Nile some 13 kilometers from the Sudanese border. 

The head of the Islamist Nour Party, Younis Makhyoun, said Egypt should back rebel groups in Ethiopia or, as a last resort, use the Egyptian intelligence service to destroy the dam.  The Nour party holds about 25 percent of the seats in Egypt's parliament. 

Ayman Nour, head of the liberal Ghad Party, suggested spreading rumors that Egypt was buying advanced military planes that could be understood in Ethiopia as a plan to strike the dam.  Abu al-Ila Madi, leader of the pro-Mursi Wasat Party, argued that this might scare the Ethiopians into cooperating with Egypt.

Some of the politicians responsibly warned that spreading rumors or military action was dangerous and could turn Ethiopia into an enemy of Egypt; they suggested a diplomatic response. 

Following the embarrassing live broadcast, Egyptian presidential aide for political affairs, Pakinam el-Sharakawi, wrote on twitter "Due to the importance of the topic it was decided at the last minute to air the meeting live.  I forgot to inform the participants about the changes.  I apologize for any embarrassment caused to the political leaders."  This one qualifies for understatement of the year!!!

So far, the Ethiopian response has been restrained.  The Associated Press in a brief report on 5 June 2013 titled "Ethiopia: Egypt Attack Proposals 'Day Dreaming'" quotes Getachew Reda, a spokesman for Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn that Egyptian leaders in the past have unsuccessfully tried to destabilize Ethiopia.  He called the suggestions of attack or sabotage an "old failed concept" and labeled it "day dreaming."

Solid reporting on this debacle is contained in the following:  al-Akhbar "Egypt Politicians Discuss Sabotaging Ethiopian Dam on Live TV"; ABC News "Egyptian Politicians Caught Discussing Plan to Sabotage Ethiopian Dam"; Sudan Tribune "Egypt TV Airs Live Discussion of Ethiopia Dam Sabotage Plans"; and Associated Press "In Meeting with President, Egyptian Politicians Propose Sabotaging Ethiopia's New Dam."

Ethiopia's Controversial Renaissance Dam: Egyptian and Sudanese Reaction

Recent events have led to an outpouring of commentary on Ethiopia's controversial Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile about 13 kilometers from the Sudanese border.  When completed in 2016, it will be one of the largest dams in the world and have an electrical generating capacity of about 5,250 MW.   The Ethiopian government provided a description of the project in a summary titled "Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam."

Recent criticism of the project in Egypt followed President Mohammed Morsi's discussions with Ethiopian officials in Addis Ababa at the end of May, a slight diversion of the Blue Nile at the location of the dam in order to move forward with construction and the delivery of a report on the Renaissance Dam to the governments of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt by a Tripartite Commission of Experts from the three countries.  The complete report has not yet been made available publicly.  Egypt published a brief summary of the report, which may highlight only the negative conclusions.  See "Egypt Presidency Issues Summary of Tripartite Report on Ethiopia Dam" in Ahram Online dated 3 June 2013.

While most senior Egyptian officials have been fairly restrained so far in their response to construction of the Renaissance Dam, some opposition political leaders and elements of the Egyptian press have unleashed harsh criticism of Ethiopia for going forward with the project.  This flavor is conveyed in al-Hayat's report titled "Ethiopian Dam Project Raises Fears of Water Deficit in Egypt" and the Associated Press report titled "Egyptians Up in Arms as Ethiopia Builds Giant Dam on Nile River; Minister Rules Out War."

Interestingly, Sudan, the other downstream country from the Renaissance Dam, has been generally supportive of the project.  President Omer al-Bashir announced in March 2012 his support, saying his government understands the mutual benefits the project could offer in the form of electricity and flood control.  The Sudanese reaction is contained in a 30 May 2013 report in the Sudan Tribune titled "Sudan Downplays Negative Impact of Ethiopian Dam Project."  On the other hand, Haider Yusuf Bakheit, an expert in Sudan's Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources expressed concerns about the project in an article in the Sudan Vision titled "Millennium Dam: A Report on the Ethiopian Dam, Its Impact on Sudan."

Left out of this discussion is the use of science in making more effective use of Nile water resources and even the use of desalinization, which is expensive, in those countries that have access to the sea.  A 30 May 2013 article titled "Israel Cuts Water Shortages with Huge Leaps in Desalination" notes that Israel now obtains about 40 percent of its water needs by desalinization.

What the current situation requires is the public release of the entire report of the Tripartite Commission of experts, a more informed public discussion, and a dialing down of the rhetoric.