Confronting Crises in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Region

 The International Crisis Group posted on 14 December 2023 a 53-minute podcast titled "No More Rules? Discussing the Crisis in Regional Diplomacy" with Alexander Rondos, senior advisor at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Kholood Khair, founding director of a Sudan-focused think tank, and Abdul Mohammed, who has held senior positions with the UN and African Union.  

The conversation focused on the conflict in Sudan and the impact of relations on both sides of the Red Sea.  Sudan in particular has changed the situation in the Horn of Africa.  There is now a crisis of legitimacy of the state.  Gulf States are looking for proxies in the Horn and there seems to be a belief that the old rules no longer apply, and the new rules are not yet well understood.  

Only a combined effort by outside parties working together can solve or ameliorate a challenge as difficult to solve as the conflict in Sudan.  In the meantime, attacks on commercial shipping through the Red Sea are turning the Horn of Africa crises into a global crisis.

Ethiopia: Understanding Medemer

The U.S. Institute of Peace conducted a podcast of almost two hours on 13 February 2020 titled "A Changing Ethiopia: Understanding Medemer." The panelists were Fitsum Arega Gebrekidan, Ethiopian ambassador to the U.S., Lencho Bati and Mamo Mihretu, both in the prime minister's office in Addis Ababa, and Etana Dinka, Oberlin College. USIP's Aly Verjee moderated the session.

The panelists covered a wide range of issues but focused on medemer, an Amharic concept which means coming together or national mobilization.

China's Maritime Silk Road and East Africa

China Brief published on 10 November 2017 an article titled "One Belt One Road and East Africa: Beyond Chinese Influence" by Cobus van Staden, South African academic and journalist.

The author comments that One Belt One Road was articulated as a series of interlinked regional integrations that ultimately translate into a link with Beijing. He added that while Africa has enthusiastically done business with China over the last two decades, misgivings about the power imbalance between China and Africa remain.

South Africa Pushes China to Support Regional Integration

The Institute for Security Studies in South Africa published on 18 December 2014 a commentary titled "SA Tries to Change China's Relations with Pretoria and Africa" by Peter Fabricius, foreign editor of Independent Newspapers.

While questioning whether South Africa will benefit equally from its current bilateral relationship with China, Fabricius argues that Jacob Zuma is encouraging China to build fewer national stadiums and more highways and bridges connecting African countries in an effort to enhance African regional integration.

Eritrea and Ethiopia: Beyond the Impasse

London's Chatham House published in April 2014 an analysis titled "Eritrea and Ethiopia: Beyond the Impasse" by Jason Mosley.  The analysis argues that opportunities exist for external efforts to foster improved relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia.  A fresh approach should involve engagement with each country individually, rather than immediate attempts to promote dialogue between them.

While any movement that helps normalize relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea would be a positive development, my own reading is that neither Ethiopia nor Eritrea is interested in taking those steps which might result in improved relations. 

Ending Conflict and Building Peace in Africa

The High-Level Panel on Fragile States in Africa released its report on 15 January 2014 titled "Ending Conflict and Building Peace in Africa: A Call to Action." 

The report identified the following as major challenges facing Africa: youth employment, urbanization, governance of natural resources, climate change, poverty and inequality.  It recommended that African countries increase their focus on the following issues: develop new strategies for youth employment, create new instruments for supporting private investment, empower women, fund infrastructure that improves justice and security, and promote resilience through regional economic cooperation.

Why There Won't Be a Nile Water War

Harry Verhoeven, who teaches African politics at the University of Oxford, wrote a piece on 13 June 2013 for Aljazeera titled "Why a 'Water War' Over the Nile River Won't Happen."  It is a balanced piece that emphasizes the need for regional integration. 

In June 2011, he wrote a detailed report for Chatham House titled "Black Gold for Blue Gold? Sudan's Oil, Ethiopia's Water and Regional Integration."  I ran it on the blog in 2011; it is worth revisiting.   The focus is on the Ethiopia-Sudan relationship, but it is relevant to Ethiopia's relations with Egypt.  It contains a complete listing of actual and proposed hydropower projects in Sudan and Ethiopia.