MIT Study on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology recently published a study titled "The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: An Opportunity for Collaboration and Shared Benefits in the Eastern Nile Basin" by 17 scientists known as the International, Non-partisan Eastern Nile Working Group.

The study supported Ethiopia's right to develop its water resources for the well-being of the Ethiopian people, and argued that water storage facilities on the Blue Nile are economically and financially attractive investments.  However, in order to maximize mutual gains of the GERD and other future reservoir developments, four principal issues must be addressed:

1.  Need for an agreement on the coordinated operation of the GERD with the Aswan High Dam.
2.  Technical issues regarding design of the GERD.
3.  Need for an agreement on the sale of hydropower from the GERD.
4.  Potential downstream impacts on Egyptian and Sudanese agriculture. 

Experts Report on Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam

International Rivers Network, an environmental advocacy group in California, just published the May 2013 International Panel of Experts 48-page report on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project.  There were two experts each from Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan and four international experts on the panel.  While the highly technical report contains no shocking surprises, it does raise a number of concerns.

The findings and recommendations begin on page 20.  The concerns center around the spillway for the main dam, several issues dealing with the saddle dam, evaporation in the reservoir behind the dam, and the impact of climate change.  Page 41 contains the key adverse and positive impacts for Egypt.  There are a number of recommendations for more study.

You can find further comment on the document on the blog of Jennifer Veilleux, an Oregon State University PhD student who is studying the Renaissance Dam.  

On 3 April 2014, International Rivers Network commented on the report by the experts. On 11 April 2014, the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs then issued a rebuttal to the analysis offered by International Rivers.

Nile Water Discussion

Press TV in the United Kingdom asked me to join a discussion on Nile water issues.  The program titled "Is the Water War between Egypt and Ethiopia Getting Out of Control?" aired on 3 July 2013.  The moderator of the Africa Today program was Henry Bonsu.  The other panelists on the 25 minute program were Assefa Seifu, former commander in the Ethiopian army, and Wafik Mustapha, president of the Egyptian community association in the UK.

Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam, Blue Nile Water Flow and Impact on Egypt

Writing for the Christian Science Monitor on 25 June 2013, William Davison produced an excellent analysis on the impact of filling the reservoir behind Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam, which is now under construction.

Rendition of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam/Wikipedia

Titled "Will Ethiopia's 'Grand' New Dam Steal Nile Waters from Egypt?" the article addresses the critical issue that impacts Egypt:  how long will it take to fill the reservoir behind the Renaissance Dam and how much water will this process siphon off annually until the reservoir is filled.

Once the reservoir is filled, the Blue Nile flows as before with only an adjustment for evaporation from the reservoir.  But this could be an advantage because the rate of evaporation will be lower than if the water is stored in the much hotter area behind the Aswan High Dam.

For those of you interested in the technical aspects of this hugely important issue, I recommend a 2008 study titled "Sediment in the Nile River System" by Abdalla Abdelsalam Ahmed and Usama Hamid A.E. Ismail and a 2010 article in the Nile Basin Water Science and Engineering Journal titled "Investigation of Step Trends of the Nile River Flow Time Series" by Ageel I. Bushara and Tagreed Abdelrahim.  All of these authors are Sudanese.  They explain the importance of the variable flow of all Nile tributaries from one year to another and the timing of the high and low flows of the rivers.