Water Wars and the Nile Basin

 US Arab Radio hosted a one hour podcast on 6 August 2021 titled "Water Wars: Death by Thirst or Death by Bullets?" hosted by Atef Abdel Gawad.

The panelists were Omer R. Ahmed, Ethiopian journalist and commentator on Africa; Mohamed Nasr Allam, Cairo University professor and Egypt's former minister of water resources and irrigation; Adel Darwish, British journalist and co-author of a book on water wars in the Middle East; and myself.

Most of the program focused on the Nile Basin and differences between Egypt and Ethiopia on the use of Nile water.  

Egypt Acknowledges Ethiopian Filling of Blue Nile Dam Not a Problem This Year

 Agence France Press published on 19 May 2021 an article titled "Egypt Foreign Minister Says Water Safe Despite Ethiopian Dam Threat."

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry is quoted as saying "We are confident the second filling of the dam [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile] by Ethiopia won't affect Egyptian water interests adversely.  We can deal with it through strict management of our water resources."

The Egypt Independent published on 19 May 2021 a similar account titled "The Second Filling of the GERD Will Not Impact Our Interests, Assures Egypt's FM."

Comment:  I have been making this argument for the past two years.  

Authoritative Study on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

 Nature Communications published on 16 October 2020 an excellent study titled "Understanding and Managing New Risks on the Nile with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam" by Kevin G. Wheeler, University of Oxford, Marc Jeuland, Sanford and Duke, Jim W. Hall, University of Oxford, Edith Zagona, University of Colorado, and Dale Whittington, University of North Carolina and University of Manchester.  

The authors looked at the potential risks and opportunities for Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia by simulating the filling period of the reservoir of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, a new normal after the reservoir fills, and a severe multi-year drought after the filling.  Their analysis illustrates how during filling the Aswan High Dam reservoir in Egypt could fall to levels not seen in recent decades, although the risk of water shortage in Egypt is relatively low.  The new normal (the period after the initial filling of the GERD reservoir) will benefit Ethiopia and Sudan without significantly affecting water users in Egypt.  Management of multi-year droughts will require careful coordination if risks of harmful impacts are to be minimized. 

Anyone suggesting the solution to this disagreement may be the bombing of the GERD should read this analysis.  But alas! 

US Should Remain Neutral on Nile Dam Dispute

Foreign Policy posted on 14 March 2020 an article titled "The United States Must Not Pick Sides in the Nile River Dispute" by Addisu Lashitew, Brookings Institution.

The author reviews the background of the dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. He argues that Washington should help the parties compromise, rather than do Cairo's bidding.

Nile River Faces Environmental Challenges

World Politics Review published on 4 February 2020 an analysis titled "As the Risk of a 'Water War' Fades, Is It Too Late to Save the Nile?" by Peter Schwartzstein, an environmental journalist.

Decades of mismanagement have left the Nile River polluted and drained. Climate change adds new uncertainty to the region. Erratic rainfall in the larger Nile Basin and especially in the Blue Nile basin near the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is the greatest threat to downstream states' water share in the long term. Nile Basin states need to work fast on tackling the river's pollution, its agricultural problems, and the shrinking per capita water shares as populations in the region increase.

MIT Study on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology recently published a study titled "The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: An Opportunity for Collaboration and Shared Benefits in the Eastern Nile Basin" by 17 scientists known as the International, Non-partisan Eastern Nile Working Group.

The study supported Ethiopia's right to develop its water resources for the well-being of the Ethiopian people, and argued that water storage facilities on the Blue Nile are economically and financially attractive investments.  However, in order to maximize mutual gains of the GERD and other future reservoir developments, four principal issues must be addressed:

1.  Need for an agreement on the coordinated operation of the GERD with the Aswan High Dam.
2.  Technical issues regarding design of the GERD.
3.  Need for an agreement on the sale of hydropower from the GERD.
4.  Potential downstream impacts on Egyptian and Sudanese agriculture. 

Experts Report on Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam

International Rivers Network, an environmental advocacy group in California, just published the May 2013 International Panel of Experts 48-page report on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project.  There were two experts each from Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan and four international experts on the panel.  While the highly technical report contains no shocking surprises, it does raise a number of concerns.

The findings and recommendations begin on page 20.  The concerns center around the spillway for the main dam, several issues dealing with the saddle dam, evaporation in the reservoir behind the dam, and the impact of climate change.  Page 41 contains the key adverse and positive impacts for Egypt.  There are a number of recommendations for more study.

You can find further comment on the document on the blog of Jennifer Veilleux, an Oregon State University PhD student who is studying the Renaissance Dam.  

On 3 April 2014, International Rivers Network commented on the report by the experts. On 11 April 2014, the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs then issued a rebuttal to the analysis offered by International Rivers.

Nile Water Discussion

Press TV in the United Kingdom asked me to join a discussion on Nile water issues.  The program titled "Is the Water War between Egypt and Ethiopia Getting Out of Control?" aired on 3 July 2013.  The moderator of the Africa Today program was Henry Bonsu.  The other panelists on the 25 minute program were Assefa Seifu, former commander in the Ethiopian army, and Wafik Mustapha, president of the Egyptian community association in the UK.

Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam, Blue Nile Water Flow and Impact on Egypt

Writing for the Christian Science Monitor on 25 June 2013, William Davison produced an excellent analysis on the impact of filling the reservoir behind Ethiopia's Renaissance Dam, which is now under construction.

Rendition of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam/Wikipedia

Titled "Will Ethiopia's 'Grand' New Dam Steal Nile Waters from Egypt?" the article addresses the critical issue that impacts Egypt:  how long will it take to fill the reservoir behind the Renaissance Dam and how much water will this process siphon off annually until the reservoir is filled.

Once the reservoir is filled, the Blue Nile flows as before with only an adjustment for evaporation from the reservoir.  But this could be an advantage because the rate of evaporation will be lower than if the water is stored in the much hotter area behind the Aswan High Dam.

For those of you interested in the technical aspects of this hugely important issue, I recommend a 2008 study titled "Sediment in the Nile River System" by Abdalla Abdelsalam Ahmed and Usama Hamid A.E. Ismail and a 2010 article in the Nile Basin Water Science and Engineering Journal titled "Investigation of Step Trends of the Nile River Flow Time Series" by Ageel I. Bushara and Tagreed Abdelrahim.  All of these authors are Sudanese.  They explain the importance of the variable flow of all Nile tributaries from one year to another and the timing of the high and low flows of the rivers.