Talks End on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Without Significant Progress

 Aljazeera published on 25 September 2023 an article titled "Second Round of Negotiations on Ethiopia's Mega-dam Wrap Up."

Two days of talks in Addis Ababa involving representatives from Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan ended without making significant progress according to Egypt and with Ethiopia pledging to continue talks "in good faith."  

Comment:  After four seasonal  annual fillings, Ethiopia completed filling the reservoir behind the dam this year.  During this period, there was no apparent harm done to downstream Sudan and Egypt as a result of withholding Blue Nile water in the reservoir.  The river is now flowing normally again through and over the hydropower dam, which is not diverting water for irrigation purposes.   

Demystifying the Nile: Podcast on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

 Dereje Tessema, author of Demystifying the Nile, organized on 29 April 2023 a conference at Georgetown University that focused on the Nile Basin and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).  It included a panel session lasting one hour and 15 minutes moderated by Won Kidane, Seattle University School of Law, and the following speakers: Seleshi Bekele, Ethiopian ambassador to the United States, Seifeselassie Lemma, Washington-based attorney, and me.  

The panel session provided an update on the status of the GERD (now 90 percent complete), the regional and international geopolitics of the dam, and a discussion of international water law.  

Charges that Water Infrastructure Deliberately Destroyed in Tigray Region

 Ethiopia Insight published on 28 March 2023 a commentary titled "The Ethiopian and Eritrean Armies Deliberately Destroyed Tigray's Water Sector" by Gebremedhin Gebremeskel, Girmay Darcha, and Mitiku Haile, all residents in Mekelle, capital of Tigray Region.  

Following the outbreak of civil war in Ethiopia, the authors assert that forces from the central government and Eritrea destroyed 50 percent of the water supply schemes in Tigray Region.  In addition, 57 percent of irrigated farms on the banks of the Tekeze River and 89 percent of the Welkait sugarcane farms were destroyed.  

Egypt and Ethiopia Compete for Ugandan Support

 Al-Monitor published on 9 September 2022 an article titled "Egypt Determined to Disrupt Ethiopia's Ties with Uganda" by George Mikhail.

Because of differences over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Egypt is trying to undermine relations between Ethiopia and Uganda, an important member of the Nile Basin Council of Ministers and source of water for the White Nile.  

Egyptian Fears of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

 The Globe and Mail published on 3 December 2021 a major article titled "Fear along the Nile: Why Egypt Sees a Massive Dam in Ethiopia as a Matter of Life and Death" by Eric Reguly.

This is an up to date look at the impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam from the Egyptian perspective.  It is richly illustrated with photographs and maps.  

Egypt's Other Water Problem

 The Atlantic Council posted on 2 June 2021 a commentary titled "Egypt Has a Water Problem--And No, It's Not Only the GERD" by Yaniv Cohen.  

Although Egypt's population growth rate is now a moderate 2 percent annually, between 1960 and 2020, its population increased from 27 million to over 100 million.  Population growth and climate change are impacting Egypt's future of water sufficiency in ways unrelated to the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.  The water needs of Egypt's growing population threaten to outstrip the Nile River's capacity.  Egypt needs to look at water conservation measures.  

Are Environmental Concerns Holding Back China's Dam Building in Africa?

 China Dialogue published on 7 April 2021 an analysis titled "Is China Edging Away from a Massive Dam on the River Niger?" by Fred Pearce.

The government of Guinea announced more than three years ago that the Fomi dam project was ready to begin construction, built by China and funded by China's Export-Import Bank.  Since then, ground operations have ceased and there has been political silence.  A number of environmental concerns have surfaced that appear to be giving China pause.  

Authoritative Study on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

 Nature Communications published on 16 October 2020 an excellent study titled "Understanding and Managing New Risks on the Nile with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam" by Kevin G. Wheeler, University of Oxford, Marc Jeuland, Sanford and Duke, Jim W. Hall, University of Oxford, Edith Zagona, University of Colorado, and Dale Whittington, University of North Carolina and University of Manchester.  

The authors looked at the potential risks and opportunities for Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia by simulating the filling period of the reservoir of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, a new normal after the reservoir fills, and a severe multi-year drought after the filling.  Their analysis illustrates how during filling the Aswan High Dam reservoir in Egypt could fall to levels not seen in recent decades, although the risk of water shortage in Egypt is relatively low.  The new normal (the period after the initial filling of the GERD reservoir) will benefit Ethiopia and Sudan without significantly affecting water users in Egypt.  Management of multi-year droughts will require careful coordination if risks of harmful impacts are to be minimized. 

Anyone suggesting the solution to this disagreement may be the bombing of the GERD should read this analysis.  But alas! 

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Regional Cooperation

 Ethiopia Insight posted on 11 August 2020 a commentary titled "Ethiopian Power Play Can Electrify Regional Cooperation" by Tsedeke Yihunie Woldu, Ethiopian economic policy activist.  

The author concluded the residents of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt need to appreciate each other's legitimate concerns and wisely expand the promise of the GERD Declaration of Principals towards regional economic integration.  

Podcast on Nile Water and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The New Africa Daily recently posted a podcast of more than one hour on issues relating to Nile waters and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.  Talar Belrhiti was the moderator.  The panelists were Hafsa Halawa, Middle East Institute, Addisu Lashitew, Brookings Institution, and myself. 

Egypt and Ethiopia: The Curse of the Nile

The Wilson Center published on 7 July 2020 an analysis titled "Egypt and Ethiopia: The Curse of the Nile" by Marina Ottaway.

The author suggests the best short-term scenario is a stop-gap agreement that will allow Ethiopia to start filling the reservoir behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on a compromise timetable acceptable to Egypt, which would walk back its military threats.  Egypt could also take steps to improve the efficiency of water management for agriculture and domestic consumption. 

Former Sudan Nile Waters Negotiating Team Member Opposes Ethiopia's Dam

The Guardian published on 23 April 2020 an article titled "'It'll Cause a Water War': Divisions Run Dep as Filling of Nile Dam Nears" by Ruth Michaelson.

Ahmed al-Mufti, a Sudanese human rights lawyer and water expert, ten years ago quit the Sudanese delegation that is negotiating Nile water issues with Egypt and Ethiopia. He argued and continues to argue that construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile will lead to regional instability and eventually a water war.

Why Ethiopia Rejected US Blue Nile Dam Deal

Ethiopia Insight posted on 2 April 2020 a news analysis titled "Why Ethiopia Rejected the U.S.-drafted GERD Deal."

Ethiopia rejected the draft U.S.-Egypt agreement concerning the fill rate and subsequent water release from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) because it was designed to help ensure implementation of the 1959 agreement, which allocated 55.5 billion cubic meters of Nile water to Egypt even during periods of severe drought in the region. During these periods the Nile might not be able to provide that amount of water, which would require Ethiopia to drain the reservoir behind the GERD to meet a treaty commitment that Ethiopia was never part of and, without the existence of the GERD, has occurred in the past.

Nile River Faces Environmental Challenges

World Politics Review published on 4 February 2020 an analysis titled "As the Risk of a 'Water War' Fades, Is It Too Late to Save the Nile?" by Peter Schwartzstein, an environmental journalist.

Decades of mismanagement have left the Nile River polluted and drained. Climate change adds new uncertainty to the region. Erratic rainfall in the larger Nile Basin and especially in the Blue Nile basin near the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is the greatest threat to downstream states' water share in the long term. Nile Basin states need to work fast on tackling the river's pollution, its agricultural problems, and the shrinking per capita water shares as populations in the region increase.

New Ethiopian-Egyptian Talks on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The International Crisis Group published on 23 October 2019 a commentary titled "Calming the Choppy Nile Dam Talks" by William Davison.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will meet on the margins of the Russia-Africa summit 24-25 October in Sochi in an effort to reach an agreement on the fill rate for the reservoir behind Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. This has been a contentious issue for years as it impacts the amount of Nile water that reaches Egypt while the reservoir for the hydropower dam is being filled.

Sudanese Land Grabs Contribute to Unrest

The Pulitzer Center posted on 30 May 2019 an article titled "Land Grabbing and Its Implications for Sudanese--Views from a Scholar" by Fredrick Mugira and Annika McGinnis. The article is based on an interview with Stefano Turrini, a scholar studying Sudanese dry lands agriculture as a PhD candidate at Padova University in Italy.

Since the beginning of this century, Sudan has significantly increased the number of long term leases it has granted to foreign companies for the purpose of growing and exporting food crops, animal feed such as alfalfa, and biofuels. These are often seen by Sudanese as land grabs and resulting in growing concerns. Most of the leases are obtained by companies from Qatar, Egypt, Lebanon, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Syria.

Ethiopia, Egypt, and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy published on 28 August 2018 an article titled "Breaking the Stalemate in the Egypt-Ethiopia Dam Dispute" by Barak Barfi, research fellow at New America.

The author rightly notes that the critical issue is the water fill rate behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia because of the impact the decreased water flow will have on downstream Egypt. While Egypt and Ethiopia have a good relationship and are trying to find a solution amicably, he argues they have not made much headway.

China-Nigeria Water Conservation Cooperation

The Journal of Current Chinese Affairs recently published an academic study titled "Repository Africa in the Evolving 'Chinese Century':The Uneven Sino-Nigerian Water Conservation Partnership" by Adebusuyi Isaac Adeniran, Obafemi Awolowo University in Nigeria.

The study assesses specific outcomes of China's water conservation project in Kano, Nigeria, and argues that it has facilitated technology and skill transfer but might eventually lead to neo-dependency.

Agriculture Powering Africa's Economic Transformation

The Accra-based African Center for Economic Transformation (ACET) posted on 10 October 2017 a massive study titled "Africa Transformation Report 2017: Agriculture Powering Africa's Economic Transformation." The lead author was Yaw Ansu, chief economist at ACET. You can download the entire report or an overview in English and French.

The premise of the study is that Africa is blessed with many natural advantages and rising market opportunities that could be leveraged for agricultural transformation. It also grapples with the current focus in Africa on industrialization by arguing that African countries have the opportunity to pursue two tracks to industrialization--one that leverages their relative labor-abundance for labor-intensive and export-oriented light manufacturing, and another track that leverages their advantages in agriculture for globally competitive manufacturing based on agriculture.

Ethiopia's Post-Grand Renaissance Dam Policy

Cooperative Waters Magazine recently published an article titled "Time to Think about Ethiopia's Post-GERD Nile Policy" by Fasil Amdetsion, Harvard Law graduate and former member of a New York law firm and former international legal adviser in Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The author argues that the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile is now a foregone conclusion. Consequently, the focus of Ethiopia's Nile waters policy should shift away from the GERD and towards successful completion of projects that will ensure the future integrated development of the Nile basin.