An Analysis of the Business Model of Russia's Wagner Group

 The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies published on 6 February 2025 a study titled "Wagner's Business Model in Syria and Africa: Profit and Patronage" by Olivia Allison, Nick Connon, Antonio Giustozzi, and James Pascall.  

The paper examines whether the Wagner Group was profitable under its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, what its business model meant for Russia and Russia's geopolitical rivals in the recent past, and what the model could mean for the future.  It draws primarily on three case studies: Syria, the Central African Republic, and Mali.  

It concludes that Wagner Group ventures in Africa and the Middle East did not contribute significantly to Russia's coffers, but that does not appear to have been the purpose.  Rather, they were intended to sustain Russia's foreign policy initiatives.

Prigozhin's death raised serious questions about the sustainability of the Wagner business model.  With Prigozhin gone and given the lack of appetite for his neocolonial approach among governments that might make use of Wagner's style of operations, a more feasible approach for achieving substantial profits in the future would be a focus on smuggling. 

How Will China Protect Its Interests in Africa?

 War on the Rocks published on 25 October 2024 a commentary titled "Will China Intervene Directly to Protect Its Investments in Africa?" by Jonathan Ping, Bond University Australia, and Joel Odota, researcher on China-Africa.

China's increased focus on security raises questions about its longstanding policy of non-interference in African states' internal affairs.  In areas of localized instability that threaten Chinese interests, China may have to resort to direct military involvement.  The authors suggest China is pursuing an "increasingly neocolonial approach" that "may ultimately undermine its non-interference policy."

Russia Tries to Reset Relations with Africa

 Opinion Nigeria posted on 17 July 2023 a commentary titled "Russia Shaping Its Future Partnership with Africa" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.  

The author reviews Russia-Africa relations in the runup to the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg later this month.  He concludes that "Russia's influence in Africa, despite efforts towards resuscitation remains marginal."

China-Angola Relations

 Modern Diplomacy published on 30 July 2022 a commentary titled "The Angola Factor in China's Relations with Africa" by Shivangi Basu, intern at the Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement.

The focus of the commentary is on China's interest in Angola's natural resources, especially oil and diamonds.  

An African Calls Out Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

 Premium Times published on 25 May 2022 a commentary titled "Why Africa Must Not Celebrate Russian Bombing of Ukraine" by Muleya Mwananyanda, Amnesty International deputy director for research in southern Africa.  

This is a hard-hitting condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine by a Zambian who stated that "Africans need to understand that Russian aggression is as immoral and harmful as Western colonialism or imperialism."  She added that "Africa risks going down a rabbit hole if it ignores the impact this invasion is likely to have on our continent's freedoms and development."

Russia Looks to Africa, But Challenges Increase

 Pan African Visions published on 16 May 2022 a commentary titled "What Could Take Russia Forward in Africa" by Kester Kenn Klomegah.

Russia is stepping up its efforts to seek influence in Africa as Western sanctions increasingly impact Moscow.  But Russia has limited economic interaction with Africa and needs to face new practical realities if its efforts are to succeed.  Russia's invasion of Ukraine has only increased the obstacles.

Podcast on Africa and the Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Podcast ran on 25 October 2018 a program titled "Hannah Ryder: Africa Needs Belt and Road. On Its Own Terms." Hannah Ryder is a former Kenyan and British diplomat who is now running a company in Beijing.

Ryder pointed out that 37 African countries have now signed Belt and Road Initiative memoranda of understanding with China. She argues that what is needed in the China-Africa relationship is more African agency.

African Countries Push Back against Chinese Aid?

The Washington Post Monkey Cage published on 16 October 2018 a commentary titled "African Countries Have Started To Push Back against Chinese Development Aid. Here's Why" by Richard Aidoo, Coastal Carolina University.

The author suggests there are four reasons why anti-Chinese rhetoric has some appeal in Africa.

China, the US, and Ethiopia

The Diplomat posted on 20 March 2018 a commentary titled "Why the West Needs to Stop Complaining and Start Engaging China in Africa" by Pippa Morgan, a PhD candidate at Fudan University in Shanghai.

Using Ethiopia as the example, the author suggests that much more could be achieved in Africa if China and the West proactively worked together across the continent. Much of the political discourse seems unable to accept that China's role is equaling--or even surpassing--that of the West.

While the author's suggestion is well taken, there are many reasons why there has not been more cooperation between China and the West in Africa and some of the reasons are found in China and with African governments. If African governments do not want China and the West to cooperate, it probably will not happen.

China's Maritime Silk Road and Africa

The Asia-Pacific Journal published on 16 March 2015 an analysis titled "Africa and China's 21st Century Maritime Silk Road" by Alvin Cheng-Hin Lim, a research fellow with the Longus Institute for Development and Strategy.

The author argues the Maritime Silk Road promises an intensification of Chinese investment in African infrastructure and should be seen as one of China's new engines of growth.  He concludes that China's presence in Africa is that of a partner in economic development rather than that of an aspiring neocolonial hegemon. 

China and the Coast of East Africa

The Journal of the Indian Ocean Region published in 2013 an analysis titled "Infrastructure and Influence: China's Presence on the Coast of East Africa" by Ross Anthony, Centre for Chinese Studies, Stellenbosch University.

The paper argues, through a comparison with 19th century German and British colonialism in the region, that while there are certain affinities, the Chinese presence today is significantly different. 

Interview on China-Africa Issues

Andrea Williams with IRIE FM in Jamaica interviewed me for 50 minutes on 10 November 2013 on China's relations with Africa and lessons for the Caribbean.  Click here for the audio transcript.

Because of the size of the audio file, it might take a couple of minutes to download. 

Shinn Interview with Awramba Times

The Awramba Times interviewed me on 5 July 2013. The hour long program moderated by Dawit Kebede and Yared Tibebu aired on 21 July 2013. Issues covered included Ethiopia-US relations, Meles Zenawi, Hailemariam Desalegn, President Obama's trip to Africa, Susan Rice, China-Africa relations, Nile water, Renaissance Dam, Egypt, human rights, neocolonialism and ethnic politics.

Comment on China-Africa Relations

Babette Zoumara and Abdul-Rauf Ibrahim, both at Xiamen University in China, wrote a piece titled "China-Africa Relations: Looking Beyond the Critics" published by Pambazuka News on 6 June 2013.

The commentary argues that Africa lacks a clear and unified policy in its relations with China and that African leaders must develop a coherent and structured plan to promote the interests of Africans.

China in Africa Discussion

Radio France 24 hosted on 26 March 2013 a frank and balanced discussion on China in Africa.  The participants were Solange Guo Chatelard, associate at the Max Planck Institute for Social Anthropoligy, CERI Sciences Po; Alexandre Kateb, managing director, Competence Finance Consulting in Paris; and Adama Gaye, author of China-Africa: the Dragon and the Ostrich.  Francois Picard hosted the discussion. 

The program can be accessed as two podcasts, the first of 18 minutes and the second of 19 minutes. The discussants covered a wide range of topics including loans, investments, trade, political conditionality, neocolonialism, security, Africans in China, BRICS, Taiwan, Zambia, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania. 

China-Africa Podcast

The Voice of Russia American Edition asked me to comment on China-Africa relations on 26 March 2013. The twelve minute podcast with Voice of Russia's Kim Brown covered China's historical ties with Africa, oil imports, African ivory and rhino horn, the BRICS' summit in South Africa, Xi Jinping's visits to Tanzania and Republic of Congo, development banking, neocolonialism and mercantilism.