Evolution of China's Policy on the Western Sahara

 The ChinaMed Project published on 7 May 2026 an analysis titled "From Neutrality to Strategic Ambiguity: China and the Western Sahara Conflict" by Imane Ezzehouany, Bianca Pasquier, and Amanda Chen.  

This analysis examines the evolution of China's position on the Western Sahara and the growing tension between diplomatic neutrality, geoeconomics, and geopolitical competition in the Maghreb.  The rapid expansion of Sino-Moroccan relations in recent years raise questions whether Beijing may be adopting a calibrated ambiguity compatible with Morocco's autonomy plan, allowing China to safeguard its strategic interests without incurring meaningful political costs.  

Sudan Government Loses International Court Case Against UAE

 The Associated Press published on 5 May 2025 an article titled "The UN's Top Court Dismisses Sudan's Genocide Case Alleging the Emiratis Funded RSF Rebels" by Molly Quell.

The International Court of Justice in The Hague dismissed a case on procedural grounds brought by the government of Sudan accusing the UAE of breaching the Genocide Convention by arming and funding the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

New Lines Institute Report Alleges Genocide in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

 The Washington-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy published in June 2024 a 120-page report titled "Genocide in Tigray: Serious Breaches of International Law in the Tigray Conflict, Ethiopia, and Paths to Accountability."  The Washington Institute for Education and Research funds the New Lines Institute whose president and founder is Ahmed Alwani, a businessman based in northern Virginia.  

The document concludes there are multiple, widespread and credible independent reports that the conduct throughout Ethiopia of the federal Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) on behalf of Ethiopia, Amhara regional armed forces and/or Fano militia and loyal groups, the Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF), as well as the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), Tigray Defence Forces (TPLF) and those loyal to them, violated international humanitarian law and international human rights law.

There is reasonable basis to believe that such violations amount to the commission of war crimes and/or crimes against humanity.  The report also concludes there is a reasonable basis to believe that members of the ENDF, the Amhara Special Forces, and the EDF committed genocide against Tigrayans.  

Interview on Events in Ethiopia and Region

 Focus on Horn of Africa carried a 25 minute radio interview with me titled "Current Political Crisis in Ethiopia" hosted by Gorse Ismail.  

The discussion focused on the situation in Ethiopia but dealt with issues related to Sudan, Eritrea, Kenya, and Somalia.  

Kenya-Somalia Ties after UN Court Decision

 The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 15 October 2021 an analysis titled "UN Court Decision a Fresh Test for Kenya-Somalia Ties" by Meron Elias.

An ICG expert discusses the potential impact on Kenya-Somalia relations of the recent International Court of Justice decision that upheld Somalia's claims of a long-running maritime border dispute between the two countries.  

Somalia Prevails over Kenya in Maritime Dispute

 The Washington Post published on 12 October 2021 an article titled "U.N. Court Rules in Favor of Somalia over Kenya in Long-running Maritime Dispute" by Rael Ombuor and Rachel Chason.  

The International Court of Justice ruled this week that Somalia, not Kenya, should control most of the triangle of water in the Indian Ocean over which Kenya has maintained sovereignty since 1979.  The maritime zone is believed to contain oil and gas and is important for fishing.  

Qatar Working to Reassert Itself in Horn of Africa

 The Stimson Center posted on 19 May 2021 a commentary titled "Qatar and Somalia-Kenya Relations: Projection of Mediation Power in the Horn of Africa" by Desiree Custers.

Qatar played a key role in the recent brokering of the resumption of diplomatic relations between Kenya and Somalia.  Qatar is clearly trying to reassert itself in the Horn of Africa following setbacks at the hands of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.  

Somalia Breaks Diplomatic Ties with Kenya

 The New York Times published on 15 December 2020 an article titled "Somalia Severs Diplomatic Ties with Kenya" by Abdi Latif Dahir.

Somalia charged the government of Kenya with "blatant interference in our country's sovereignty." The break is the culmination of years of deteriorating relations.  It came a day after Kenya's president hosted the president of Somaliland, which unilaterally declared independence from Somalia in 1991.  

China-Egypt Ties Strong in Spite of Anti-China Sentiment

Al-Monitor published on 23 April 2020 an article titled "Cairo-Beijing Ties Strong Amid Surge of Anti-China Sentiment in Egypt" by Shahira Amin, Cairo-based journalist.

The author reports a surge in anti-China sentiment in Egypt since the outbreak of the coronavirus. But Chinese investment in Egypt has reached nearly $7 billion and China is Egypt's largest trading partner. President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, who has visited China six times since 2014, perceives China as a political and security superpower. Egypt is concerned about China's financial support for Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, which Egypt believes threatens its supply of water from the Nile.

Kenya-Somalia Indian Ocean Boundary Dispute

World Politics Review published on 6 April 2020 an analysis titled "Kenya and Somalia's Long-Simmering Territorial Dispute Threatens to Boil Over" by Julian Hattem.

High level diplomacy to solve the Indian Ocean boundary dispute between Somalia and Kenya has been halted by the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, the situation is ripe for small scale skirmishes and shows of force by both sides.

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and International Law

Ethiopia Insight published on 30 March 2020 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Does Not Need Egypt's Permission To Start Filling GERD" by Mahemud Tekuya, PhD candidate in international legal studies at University of Pacific.

The author looks at the filling of the reservoir behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam from the perspective of his interpretation of international law.

An Ethiopian Response to the Nile Water Dispute

Ethiopia Insight posted on 8 December 2019 a commentary titled "Sink or Swim: Unlocking the Nile Impasse" by Mahemud Tekuya, University of the Pacific.

The author, an Ethiopian, argues that if the current effort to resolve differences between Ethiopia and Egypt fails over the fill rate behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, Ethiopia should not agree to accept mediation by the United States and the World Bank as both tend to favor Egypt. He suggests that the Nile Basin Initiative or the African Union would be a more neutral mediator. Alternatively, Ethiopia could ask the International Court of Justice to rule on the validity of the 1902, 1929, and 1959 treaties that govern Nile water allocation but were never agreed to by Ethiopia.

International Court Postpones Kenya-Somalia Maritime Dispute

Ventures Africa posted on 18 October 2018 an article titled "ICJ Postpones Hearing on Kenya-Somalia Maritime Dispute" by Ajifowoke Michael Gbenga.

At the request of the government of Kenya, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) agreed to postpone the hearing concerning the maritime dispute between Kenya and Somalia until early June 2020. Kenya has also been urging that a mediator other than the ICJ be selected to resolve the issue; Somalia wants the matter to remain with the ICJ.

Kenya and Somalia Maritime Dispute

Ventures Africa posted on 8 August 2019 an article titled "Kenya Is Employing Diplomatic Strategy in Maritime Dispute with Somalia" by Ajifowoke Michael Gbenga.

Kenya and Somalia are waiting for the commencement of hearings on 19 September concerning the Indian Ocean maritime border case filed by Somalia at the International Court of Justice. In the meantime, Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta has embarked on a diplomatic charm offensive in Africa, Europe and the Middle East to drum up support for Kenya's position in the dispute.

The Kenya-Somalia Maritime Dispute

Lawfare posted on 15 May 2019 a commentary titled "The Kenya-Somalia Maritime Dispute and Its Potential National Security Costs" by Emmah Wabuke, an advocate of the High Court of Kenya.

Somalia auctioned oil and gas blocks in an Indian Ocean maritime territorial area claimed by Kenya. This led to an immediate crisis in Kenya-Somalia relations. The matter is now before the International Court of Justice.

Impact of Offshore Oil and Gas on Kenya-Somalia Relations

The Institute for Security Studies posted on 1 March 2019 a commentary titled "Is the Scent of Oil a Solution for Somalia?" by Peter Fabricius.

Somalia is in a dispute with its southern neighbor, Kenya, over claims that Somalia tried to auction off oil and gas exploration blocks in territorial waters that Kenya claims. Somalia denied the allegations, saying that while the maps presented at the auction included territory that Kenya claims, this was just a marketing exercise.

China, Philippines, Africa and Dispute Settlement

The Philippines-based Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies published in June 2016 a study titled "China Could and Should Learn a Lesson or Two from Africa in the Area of Peaceful Dispute Settlement" by Alfredo C. Robles, Jr., former professor at De La Salle University in Manila.

The author notes that China is seeking African support for its South China Sea dispute with the Philippines and suggests China would be better advised to follow the lead of many African countries that have submited their disputes for settlement to the International Court of Justice.