The Emirates Policy Center published on 2 October 2026 an analysis titled "Iran and the 'Straits Game' in Hormuz and Bab El-Mandeb: Calculating the Impact and Consequences" by Mohammad Alzghool.
The author concluded that Iran's strategy relies on the assumption that rising energy prices, market uncertainty and public pressure will increase the political costs borne by its adversaries. In contrast, the United States and the Gulf countries are investing in alternative oil-export routes while preparing for countermeasures, including a potential counter blockade and military action aimed at neutralizing threats.
