Global Trends 2030

The U.S. National Intelligence Council released its Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds in December 2012. The intelligence study looks at the likely state of the planet in 2030. There is a brief section devoted to Sub-Saharan Africa; several of its conclusions follow.

Report cover.

The megatrends of population growth without aging, rapid urbanization, and, to some extent, middle class expansion will significantly shape the trajectories of most African countries and at least a few--particularly in the climate change-threatened Sahel and Sahara regions--will be sharply challenged by resource scarcities.

Education will be a game-changer for those African countries that not only offer nominally widespread schooling but ensure that qualified teachers are in classrooms--currently lacking across the continent.

Commodity-exporting countries need to be wary that increased volatility in global markets is probably ahead and will challenge their fiscal viability and stability if they do not work to diversify their economies.

Africa will be at risk of conflict and increased violence as development proceeds unevenly among and within African countries. The Sahel region, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Somalia will be the most vulnerable and challenged to improve governance and resource management.

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