The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies released in August 2013 a study titled "Somalia Redux? Assessing the New Somali Federal Government" by Matt Bryden, director of the Nairobi-based think tank, Sahan Research.
Bryden offers a cautionary tale. He argues the Somali Federal Government (SFG) remains frail and embattled, dependent upon African Union troops to protect its leaders and defend its sovereignty. The stream of returnees, investors, aid workers, and diplomats to Mogadishu has not been replicated elsewhere in the country, creating an artificial bubble of optimism around the capital. Bryden adds that most of Somalia's territory is governed or controlled by other authorities whose relations with the SFG range from pragmatic to openly hostile.