Immediate Outlook for Filling Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Reservoir

The Ad Hoc Blue Nile Forecast Group posted on Katie O'Brien's blog a study titled "Average To Above Average Blue Nile River Flow Expected in 2018." The ad hoc group consists of scholars at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, and the University of California Santa Barbara.

Ethiopia will soon begin filling the reservoir of the largest hydropower dam in Africa, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This is of special concern to Egypt, which receives about 60 percent of its Nile water from the Blue Nile where the GERD is located. The scholars predict there is a strong likelihood of average to above average rainfall in the Blue Nile basin in the 2018 summer rainy season. This is generally good news as lower rainfall totals would require more years to fill the reservoir without harming downstream Sudan and Egypt. This prediction only deals with 2018.