Thursday, March 28, 2024

Jobs for Poor and Vulnerable Households in Ethiopia

 The World Bank has posted online a study published in 2023 titled "Working Today for a Better Tomorrow in Ethiopia: Jobs for Poor and Vulnerable Households" edited by Emily Weedon Chapman and Margaux Vinez.  

The study outlines how Ethiopia can leverage its social safety net programs to help poor and vulnerable workers earn more in today's labor market.  

Houthi Red Sea Attacks Linked to Control Over Yemen

 Vox published on 27 March 2024 an article titled "What the Red Sea Ship Attacks Are Really About" by Rajaa Elidrissi.  

The Iran-backed Houthis claim their attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea are about avenging Gaza.  The author argues that increasingly the attacks are an effort by the Houthis to control all of Yemen.  

Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Attack on Chinese-owned Ship in Red Sea Likely a Houthi Mistake

 Breaking Defense published on 25 March 2024 an article titled "Purported Houthi Strike on Chinese Vessel in Red Sea Likely a 'Mistake': Experts" by Agnes Helou.  

The Houthi missile attack on the Chinese-owned M/V Huang Pu is generally believed to have been an intelligence failure by the Houthi rebels rather than an attempt to target Chinese interests.  Russia and China had earlier been informed by the Houthis that their ships would be exempt from attacks.

Comment:  While this is probably the case, the incident still underscores for all shipping interests, including those with Chinese and Russian connections, the danger the Houthis pose for everyone in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden..  

Chinese Naval Task Force Visits Tanzania on Occasion of 60 Years of Diplomatic Relations

 South Africa's The Citizen published on 27 March 2024 an article titled "China, Tanzania Set to Mark 60 Years of Naval Cooperation" by Jacob Mosenda.

Tanzania and China are marking the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations with the visit of the 45th Chinese naval task group (guided-missile destroyer Urumqi, guided-missile frigate Linyi, and supply ship Dongpinghu), which recently completed its anti-piracy rotation in the Gulf of Aden.  Describing the China-Africa relationship, the article noted that China is Tanzania's largest trade partner and source of foreign direct investment.  

Comment:  It is true that China is Tanzania's largest trade partner and in 2022 was its largest source of foreign direct investment.  The Chinese ambassador to Tanzania pointed out that in 2023 China-Tanzania trade reached $8.8 billion.  What was left unsaid is the fact that this trade consists overwhelmingly of Chinese exports to Tanzania, leaving Dar es Salaam with a huge trade deficit.  In 2022, for example, Tanzania's exports to China totaled only $535 million.  Until 2021, the United Kingdom was the largest source of Tanzania's FDI; China passed the UK in 2022.

Before arriving at the port of Dar es Salaam, China's 45th naval task force participated with the Russian and Iranian navies in the 5th iteration of the trilateral naval exercise in the Gulf of Oman.  Military Africa reported the engagement on 18 March 2024 in an article titled "South Africa Observes as Russia, China, and Iran Hold Naval Drill" by Sarah Lesedi.   

Disruption of South Sudan's Oil Threatens Regime

 Aljazeera published on 26 March 2024 an article titled "South Sudan on the Brink after Oil Exports Derailed by Sudan's Civil War" by Mat Nashed.

All oil produced in South Sudan passes through war torn Sudan where it is exported from the Red Sea at Port Sudan. The oil pipeline was damaged last month in an area controlled by Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  It has not been possible to repair the pipeline because of ongoing fighting, raising fears that South Sudan's economy could collapse.

The pipeline accounts for as much as three-quarters of South Sudan's oil revenue, which, in turn, accounts for 90 percent of the country's revenue.  Most of the oil revenue supports the ruling leadership in Juba, which faces elections in December.  

Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Is China Pursuing a Second Military Base in Africa?

 Chatham House published on 25 March 2024 a commentary titled "Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa as the US Struggles to Maintain One in Niger?" by Alex Vines, Armida van Rij, and Henry Tugendhat.

China opened its first and only military base outside the country in Djibouti in 2017.  Rumors persist that Beijing is seeking another base in Africa.  But the mood across Africa about establishing more foreign bases is increasingly ambivalent.  As the United States is being pushed out of its base in Niger, China may be wary of the impermanent nature of these agreements with African governments.  

The authors suggest that rather than establish another full-fledged military base somewhere in Africa, China will seek to expand its civilian port infrastructure efforts and build dual-use facilities in African ports that it has invested in.  

Chinese Maritime Interests in the Indian Ocean

 Sea Control posted on 24 March 2024 a 27-minute podcast titled "Chinese Maritime Interests in the Indian Ocean with Commodore Venugopal Vengalil" hosted by Nathan Miller.  

This conversation with retired Indian Commodore Vengalil, a member of the Chennai Centre for China Studies, took place on 5 February.  He reviews the history during the 21st century of the PLA Navy's shift from an exclusive near sea focus to a significant interest in the far seas and the need to protect China's interests throughout the Belt and Road Initiative region.

Commodore Vengalil discusses the challenges, especially the long line of communications, for the PLAN in the Indian Ocean to exercise sea control with questionable ability to access ports during hostilities.  He analyzes the capability of the Chinese fleet, which is large but with significant handicaps that limit its ability to project power.  

His remarks are based on a paper published by the Chennai Centre for China Studies on 2 December 2023 and titled "Assessment of Chinese Maritime Interests in Indian Ocean Region."

Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping Increase Food Insecurity

 The Australian Strategic Policy Institute published on 14 March 2024 a commentary titled "The Red Sea Crisis, Food Security and Conflict" by Saba Sinai, CQUniversity, Australia.

Houthi attacks on commercial shipping through the Red Sea are disrupting supply chains and contributing to global food insecurity and conflict, including the situation in Yemen itself.

Monday, March 25, 2024

India Begins Prosecution of Somali Pirates

 The Maritime Executive published on 25 March 2024 an article titled "India Begins Its First Prosecution of Somali Pirates in More Than a Decade."

Indian authorities in Mumbai are now prosecuting 35 Somali pirates captured on the hijacked Bulgarian ship, the Ruen, which is being returned to Bulgaria.  The cases against the Somalis are being brought under India's Maritime Anti-Piracy laws.  

Algeria Acquires State-of-the-Art Chinese UAVs

 Military Africa published on 22 March 2024 an article titled "Algeria Enhances Aerial Capabilities with Advanced WJ-700 Falcon UAVs" by Darek Liam.  

Algeria is acquiring 4 state-of-the-art WJ-700 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp.  These large UAVs can carry substantial payloads, including anti-ship missiles.  The procurement occurs during ongoing regional tensions with Morocco, which has also been upgrading its military hardware.

Sunday, March 24, 2024

Indian Navy Captures Somali Pirates and Rescues Crew from Hijacked Ship

 Reuters published on 23 March 2024 an article titled "India Brings Back 35 Somali Pirates as Part of Operations Near Red Sea" by Krisha Kaushik.

The Indian navy captured 35 Somali pirates from the cargo ship Ruen and rescued all 17 crew members from the ship, which was hijacked 3 months ago off the Somali coast.  The navy delivered the Somali pirates to the police in Mumbai.  

Iran-backed Houthis Strike Chinese-owned Ship in Red Sea

 The Hindustan Times published on 24 March 2024 an article titled "Houthi Rebels Burn Chinese Ship in Rare Strike on 'Friendly' Nation's Vessel in Red Sea."

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen fired 6 ballistic missiles at the M/V Huang Pu, a Panamanian-flagged, Chinese-owned, and Chinese-operated oil tanker in the Red Sea.  US naval forces shot down 5 of the incoming missiles but one hit the ship, causing a small fire.  

Hong Kong's The Standard published on 24 March 2024 an article titled "Chinese-owned Tanker Hit by Houthi Missile in Red Sea: CENTCOM," which contains additional information on the attack.  

Comment:  The Houthis have said repeatedly that they will not attack ships of their friends--Russia and China--in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.  It is not surprising, however, that the Houthis finally attacked a Chinese-owned ship.  The Houthis cannot possibly properly identify all of the ships in the Red Sea that fly flags of numerous countries and are owned and operated by other countries.  But with "friends" like the Houthis, who needs enemies.  

Saturday, March 23, 2024

China Turns to Tanzania to Grow Soybeans for Chinese Market

 Belgium-based Comite pour l'annulation de la dette du Tiers Monde (CADTM) published on 10 February 2024 an analysis titled "A New Wave of Land Grabs Strikes Tanzania" by French-based La Via Campesina and Spanish-based GRAIN.

The focus of the analysis is an effort by a Chinese state-owned company, Yuan Longping High-tech Agriculture, to invest in a major soybean production project in Tanzania and possibly other African countries.  Reportedly, the Tanzanian farmers must sell the soybeans exclusively to Longping Tanzania, which will then export them to China.  The Chinese government has offered a guarantee to purchase all of the soybeans that are produced.  Tanzanians retain ownership of the land on which the soybeans are grown while the Chinese company controls destination of the soybeans.

Comment:  To refer to this project as a land grab appears to be a misnomer.  On the other hand, it does demonstrate that China is looking to Africa, a net food importer, to increase agricultural exports to China of critical products such as soybeans.  

Friday, March 22, 2024

China and India Compete in Indian Ocean

 The Diplomat published on 14 March 2024 a commentary titled "China and India's Intense Contest for Influence" by Jabin T. Jacob, Shiv Nadar University.

India has been closely watching Chinese actions in the Indian Ocean in island countries such as Maldives and Mauritius and has responded strongly in cases where its security was directly affected.  

Has Sudan's Armed Forces Turned Tide of Battle in Country?

 The Middle East News Agency published on 21 March 2024 an article titled "Sudan's Army Aims to Build on Khartoum Victories but Risks Overextending" by Hamza Hendawi.

Following a series of early military victories in the Khartoum capital region, Darfur in the west, and to the south of Khartoum by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) has recently had some limited military success in retaking ground from the RSF in Omdurman, across the Nile River from Khartoum.  SAF generals now say they plan to retake territory across Sudan, although some observers argue that the Army may overextend its capability.

The Plusses and Minuses of the Chinese-built Railway in Kenya

 Public Seminar posted on 18 March 2024 a commentary titled "The New Silk Road: China's Belt and Road Initiative Provokes Divided Narratives in Kenya" by Keren Zhu, The New School.

The Chinese-funded and built standard gauge railway in Kenya has provoked a heated debate between proponents of the project's economic benefits and those concerned with its socio-environmental risks.  The author concludes that while the railway was a success for many stakeholders, its long-term effect on Kenya is highly uncertain.

Comment:  The article indicates that the railway is an example of China's investment abroad.  In fact, it is an example of Kenya's investment in itself because Nairobi must pay the Chinese companies for building the project.  

New Chinese Industrial City in Egypt?

 Egypt's Zawya published on 12 March 2024 an article titled "Egypt, China Discuss Prospects for New Chinese Industrial City."

China is in discussion with Egypt to establish a Chinese industrial zone along the Mediterranean Sea to serve the local market and exports to Europe and the United States.

Comment:  The proposal appears to be at an early stage of negotiation.  

Thursday, March 21, 2024

Niger: Russia and Iran Set to Replace France and US

 Critical Threats Africa File published on 21 March 2024 an analysis titled "Niger Cuts the United States for Russia and Iran" by Liam Karr.

Niger is unlikely to compromise on its efforts to expand ties with Russia and Iran to maintain its military partnership with the United States.  The military regime in Niger has apparently concluded that Russia and Iran are better positioned to help ensure regime security than the United States and France, which was pushed out earlier. 

Increasingly, it appears Russian troops or mercenaries with the Africa Corps, previously known as the Wagner Group, are headed to Niger like they recently deployed to Burkina Faso to protect the regime.  

Upcoming: Panel on China-Global South Relations

 The Columbia China Forum at Columbia University is hosting a day long program on 23 March on the theme "Ebbing with Changes, Flowing with Tandem." The program includes a panel discussion titled "China-Global South Relations" from 3:45 to 4:45 PM.  

The panelists include David Y. Chen, Asia Society Policy Institute, Maria Adele Carrai, New York University Shanghai, Lydia Liu, Columbia University, Cobus van Staden, co-founder of the China-Global South Project, and me.  

Zimbabwe Receives Senior Delegation from Communist Party of China

 Zimbabwe's Chronicle published on 20 March 2024 an article titled "China Supports Total Sanctions Removal on Zimbabwe" by Gibson Nyikadzino.  

A senior delegation from the Communist Party of China visited Zimbabwe and met with President Emmerson Mnangagwa among other officials.  The two sides praised each other highly although they did not announce any new projects or initiatives.  

Sudan: Fears of Genocide in Darfur

 The Wall Street Journal published on 21 March 2024 an article titled "'We Will Shoot You.' War in Darfur Raises New Fears of Genocide" by Gabriele Steinhauser and photos by Diana Zeyneb Alhindawi. 

The article documents "abuses against civilians on an industrial scale" in Sudan's Darfur region.  The photography is especially poignant and reflective of the horrific situation facing civilians in Darfur.   

Is Somali Piracy Returning as a Major Problem?

 Reuters published on 21 March 2024 an article titled "Somali Pirates' Return Adds to Crisis for Global Shipping Companies" by Giulia Paravicini, Jonathan Saul, and Abdiqani Hassan.

For a variety of reasons, Somali piracy nearly disappeared ten years ago from the Gulf of Aden, Red Sea, and wider Indian Ocean.  Since November 2023, Somali pirates have attempted more than 20 hijackings, resulting in the return of armed security guards on ships and higher shipping insurance rates.  Although the number of attacks remains well below the peak in 2011, there is concern that piracy is returning as a serious threat.

Comment:  The ability and willingness of the central government in Mogadishu and the regional government of Puntland to control the Somali coastline will largely determine whether Somali piracy returns as a major issue.  More aggressive preventive measures by shipowners will also play a significant role.  

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

The Forgotten War: BBC Coverage Inside Sudan

 BBC TV ran a 6-minute clip on 19 March 2024 titled "Millions Face Starvation in Sudan as Warring Factions Block Aid Delivery."

This coverage is one of the few occasions when a Western media organization has reported recently from inside Sudan, including Khartoum and Omdurman.  The clip makes the point that media coverage of the situation in Ukraine, Gaza, and now Haiti has drowned out the horrific situation in Sudan.  

Sudan Is One of Worst Humanitarian Disasters in Recent Memory

 Aljazeera published on 20 March 2024 an article titled "Sudan One of the 'Worst Humanitarian Disasters in Recent Memory,' UN Warns."

More than 18 million Sudanese are facing acute food insecurity and more than 8 million are internally displaced or refugees in neighboring countries because of the continued fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces.  Efforts to arrange a ceasefire have failed.  Sudan may slip into the world's largest hunger crisis.  

Upcoming Webinar: China-Africa Cooperation

 The US-Asia Institute in Washington is hosting on 28 March at 1:00 PM a webinar via Zoom titled "Exploring China-Africa Cooperation through the Lens of the 2035 Vision." You can register at this link. The panelists are Lina Benabdallah, Wake Forest University, and me.  The moderator is Ding Fei, Cornell University.  The discussion will be wide ranging.