Deutsche Welle posted on 1 August 2025 an article titled "Sudan: Is a Rival Government Splitting the Country in Two?" by Jennifer Holleis.
Rapid Support Force (RSF) General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo claims to have jurisdiction over all of Sudan following formation in Darfur of his Transitional Peace Government. Sudan Armed Forces General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan quickly rejected the RSF government as an illegitimate entity. The African Union said it will not recognize the RSF regime.
The Insurance Business Magazine published on 1 August 2025 an article titled "Escalating Houthi Attacks in Red Sea Trigger New Global Supply Chain and Insurance Challenges" by Gia Snape.
The renewed Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have the potential to raise energy costs and disrupt supply chains. Many shipping companies are once again diverting cargo around the Cape of Good Hope. Insurers have increased their marine risk premiums.
Focus Taiwan published on 24 July 2025 an article titled "Taiwan, Somaliland Sign Coast Guard Cooperation Deal."
Somaliland's foreign minister met with Taiwan's president in Taipei last week when they signed a coast guard cooperation agreement involving training and exercises.
The Nanyang Technological University posted on 29 July 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Wraps Up Construction of Africa's Largest Hydro Project."
Ethiopia has completed construction on the Blue Nile of the $4.2 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Africa's largest hydroelectric project. In addition to meeting domestic demand for electricity, Ethiopia is now selling it to Kenya, Sudan, Djibouti, and Tanzania. The article comes with an excellent picture of the completed dam.
Comment: This article makes the same mistake that most reporting makes on this topic by stating that the Blue Nile provides 85 percent of the Nile River's total flow. The Blue Nile contributes closer to 55 percent of the Nile River's flow. A combination of the Blue Nile, the Tekeze that feeds directly into the Nile, and the Sobat that feeds into the White Nile contribute about 85 percent of the Nile River's flow. The Blue Nile is the single most important source of water for the Nile. All three of these rivers originate in Ethiopia. Their names change as they cross international borders.
The Bulletin in Bend, Oregon reprinted on 29 July 2025 a commentary originally published in the Chicago Tribune titled "Burning Down America's Best Tool for Peace and Prosperity" by Elisabeth Shakelford, Dartmouth.
The author makes the case against the recent major cuts in State Department staffing instituted by DOGE. She argues that diplomacy is the least expensive way to resolve or mitigate global crises.
Ethiopia Insight published on 29 July 2025 a commentary titled "Abiy's War Script: Deja Vu for Tigray, Ominous for Ethiopia" by Mulugeta Gebregziabher, Medical University of South Carolina.
The author fears that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is laying the ground for renewed conflict in Tigray Region. He calls for the restoration of the Tigray People's Liberation Movement's legal status as a political party and the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement to avoid new conflict.
The China Global South Project published on 26 July 2025 an article titled "Chinese, Iranian and Turkish Drones Fuel Africa's New Era of Low-cost Warfare" by Celia Lebur and Mathieu Rabechault.
Some 30 African governments have acquired drones, giving them access to more affordable air power. China, Turkey, and Iran sell them without any political conditionality. They are often used to defeat internal dissident movements.
World Politics Review published on 28 July 2025 an analysis titled "Egypt's Regional Strategy Is Coming Undone in Libya and Sudan" by Elfadil Ibrahim.
In late June, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi hosted General Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the Libyan National Army, and General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the Sudan Armed Forces, in an attempt to mediate the growing tension between the two leaders.
The meeting reportedly was a disaster. Burhan accused Haftar of arming his enemy in Sudan's civil war, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Haftar denied the allegations and Burhan then presented proof of his complicity. Egypt's attempt at brokering peace between two of Cairo's major clients only laid bare the growing precariousness of Sisi's regional policy.
The Economist published on 24 July 2025 an article titled "Somalia's State-building Project Is in Tatters."
For the past 8 months local forces from the federal state of Puntland, backed with airstrikes by the US and UAE, have been waging an all-out and successful war against the Islamic State. On the other hand, the central government has been losing ground in its battle with al-Shabaab and relations between Mogadishu and the federal states have deteriorated.
Swarajya, an Indian right-wing monthly magazine, published on 23 July 2025 an article titled "Xi Jinping's Starlink Challenge Stalls as China's Satellite Constellation Projects Face Launch Bottlenecks; India's Private Sector Advances."
Elon Musk's Starlink, the pioneering satellite internet service, faces competition from China's state-led Guowang and the Shanghai-backed Qianfan. Musk's Starlink has launched more than 7,000 satellites providing connectivity to over five million customers in more than 100 countries.
Both of the Chinese projects face delays caused by rocket shortages, sluggish deployment rates, and internal competition. As of July 2025, Guowang had launched only about 40 satellites in a program that envisages a network of over 13,000 that will provide high-speed internet for civilian and military use.
Qianfan, also known as SpaceSail and G60 Starlink, is backed by the Shanghai municipal government and plans to have 15,000 satellites by 2030. To date, it has launched about 90 satellites and at least 17 of them have failed to reach their intended orbits. State-backed Guowang receives launch priority, repeatedly pushing Qianfan to the sidelines.
These problems in China's satellite programs may be alleviated, however, as Xi Jinping has reportedly instructed the People's Liberation Army to accelerate space-based communication systems in order to build a Chinese alternative to Starlink.
Comment: All of this has important implications for the Global South, and especially Africa, where Starlink has been slow to take hold and Chinese competition could challenge it.
The Daily Maverick published on 23 July 2025 an article titled "SA Government Officially Withdraws Recognition of Taiwan's Office in Pretoria" by Peter Fabricius.
The South African government officially withdrew its recognition of Taipei's representative office in the capital of Pretoria. South Africa, under pressure from Beijing, insists that the office be renamed the Taipei Commercial Office and moved to the commercial center of Johannesburg. The government in Taipei is refusing to accept the decision.
South Africa's Daily Maverick published on 28 July 2025 an article titled "Fragmented Governance in Somalia a Breeding Ground for Al-Shabaab's Growing Influence and Power" by Selam Tadesse Demissie.
Rivalries among the federal government, states, and political opposition are undermining the country's earlier counterterrorism successes. Al-Shabaab is regaining areas in central Somalia and threatens the capital as the government struggles to implement its counterterrorism strategy.
HuffPost published on 26 July 2025 an article titled "Trump Is Gutting the State Department and Dragging Diplomats 'Through the Mud'" by Akbar Shahid Ahmed.
The State Department recently fired more than 1,300 personnel and provided incentives for another 1,500 to quit. It also has a hiring freeze in effect so that new staff cannot be added.
The article suggests that the firings are party ideologically motivated. The demonizing of civil service and foreign service staff has sunk morale. The author concludes that the State Department will likely be left "to wither" for the remainder of Trump's term.
Federal News Network posted on 25 July 2025 an article titled "These Are the State Department Offices Hit Hardest by Widespread Layoffs" by Jory Heckman.
The State Department fired 1,350 employees earlier this month. This is a detailed account of the number of fired employees in 31 bureaus and offices according to civil service or foreign service status.
Deutsche Welle posted on 27 July 2025 an article titled "Sudan: RSF Forms Rival Government, Deepening Fissure" by Shakeel Sobhan.
The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced on 26 July the formation of a rival civilian-led government in the RSF-controlled city of Nyala in South Darfur. RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo is the president. The head of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North is the vice president.
This splits Sudan with the Sudan Armed Forces controlling the north, east, and center of the country and the RSF controlling most of Darfur and parts of Kordofan in the west.
The China-Africa Security Radar posted on 27 July 2025 an article titled "China's Rebuttal of AFRICOM: Finding the Middle Ground."
A recent article in the Communist Party of China's Global Times responded to AFRICOM's commander, General Michael Langley's 10 June testimony before the House Armed Services Committee that framed China as a growing strategic competitor in Africa. The Global Times article dismissed US claims of China's military expansion in Africa.
The blog of Lawrence Freeman posted on 24 July 2025 an article titled "The Legacy & Vision of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam."
The article examines the historical context of Nile water usage, the roles played by four Ethiopian leaders in advancing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and the dam's prospects for aiding Ethiopia's sovereignty and prosperity.
The CTC Sentinel published in its July 2025 edition an analysis titled "The Escalation of U.S. Airstrikes in Somalia and the Role of Perceived Threats to the U.S. Homeland" by David Sterman.
In 2025, the United States significantly increased the pace of airstrikes against the Islamic State and al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabaab in Somalia. The rationale was a perceived heightened threat of jihadi activity in the homeland by one or both of these groups.
The China Global South Project posted on 23 July 2025 a Q & A titled "China's 'Feeling the Stones' Approach to African Security Takes Shape" with Lungani Hlongwa, China-Africa Security Radar, and Paul Nantulya, Africa Center for Security Studies in Washington.
China sees Africa as central to the future of the international order. Because of increasing threats to Chinese nationals and interests in Africa, the security element of China's engagement has become more important. But China is not following a single strategy for dealing with the security challenges that it faces. Chinese policy is usually aligned at the strategic level but often encounters fragmentation at the level of execution.
The International Crisis Group posted on 24 July 2025 a 32-minute podcast titled "What Does Sudan's RSF Want?" with Alan Boswell and Sarra Majdoub, Sudan analyst.
Khartoum became a liability for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) where it lacked local support. Supply chains and recruiting became difficult and the RSF decided to pull out of the capital. Fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and RSF has shifted to Kordofan and northern Darfur where the RSF is still a threat but does not have full control. The RSF is fighting to stay politically relevant.
The RSF is comprised of many different ethnic groups, which creates the possibility for internal divisions. It recently aligned with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North and may be preparing to establish a separate government in Western Sudan. This could lead to a permanent state or only serve as a way to bargain with the SAF.
The RSF conducted drone strikes on the SAF in Port Sudan and elsewhere because it lost Khartoum and wants to send the message that it can reach the SAF anywhere. The RSF's supply chain in Darfur is challenging but it receives requirements through Chad, southern Libya, and by air bridge to Nyala. The RSF connection with the UAE is well known but Abu Dhabi is probably not in a position to dictate the RSF's future. The RSF wants to be treated as an equal partner in Sudan.
Ethiopia Insight published on 24 July 2025 an article titled "Under Two Flags: Life in Dembi Dollo" by Ermias Tasfaye, an Ethiopia Insight reporter based in Oromia.
The town of Dembi Dollo in western Oromia is at the center of the region's long conflict between the Ethiopian state and Oromo nationalism. The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is waging an insurgency against the federal government. Dembi Dollo town remains under government control because of heavy security while the OLA dominates the countryside. Dembi Dollo is griped with fear.
The U.S. Department of Defense posted on 22 July 2025 a press release titled "China, Russia, Terrorist Networks Destabilizing Africa" by David Vergun.
Air Force Lt. General Dagvin R.M. Anderson, who is being considered as the new commander of U.S. Africa Command, appeared before the Senate Committe on Armed Services. He expressed concerns that Chinese and Russian efforts to increase influence in Africa could threaten U,S. national security.
The New York Times published on 23 July 2025 an article titled "U.S. Quietly Drafts Plan to End Program That Saved Millions from AIDS" by Stephanie Nolen.
Planning documents for the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) obtained by The New York Times call for changes that would effectively end the program. The planning documents, which have not yet been approved by the senior level of the State Department, would replace PEPFAR by "bilateral relationships" with low-income countries focused on the detection of outbreaks that could threaten the United States and the creation of new markets for American drugs and technologies.
The BBC posted on 23 July 2025 an article titled "Ethiopian Official Denies Donald Trump's Claim that US Funded River Nile Dam" by Wedaeli Chibelushi.
President Trump asserted in a meeting last week that "US money largely" funded the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. An Ethiopian official responded that Ethiopia built the dam "without any foreign aid." The money came from Ethiopian bonds sold to companies, pledges from Ethiopian government civil service salaries, and donations from the Ethiopian diaspora.
Comment: I am not aware of any US government funding for the dam. The Ethiopian diaspora in the United States made a modest but not precisely known contribution to GERD funding.
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy published on 16 July 2025 an analysis titled "Lethal Attacks Show Strengthened Houthi Control over Red Sea Transit" by Noam Raydan and Farzin Nadimi.
The latest Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping that resulted in the sinking of two commercial ships constituted an escalation of their tactics. The scale and boldness of the attacks was unprecedented. Moving forward, Houthis have the will and the ability to sink more ships.
