Monday, December 15, 2025

Myths and Modern Ethiopia

 Ethiopia Insight published on 15 December 2025 a commentary titled "Medieval Myths to Modern Ethiopia" by Muktar Ismail.

The author disputes the myth of the Solomonic dynasty.  He concludes that Ethiopia faces a critical challenge in creating a shared narrative that embraces its diverse population.  This requires moving away from its Solomonic mythology towards a more inclusive fact-based dialogue.  

China Likely to Adapt to Latest West African Coup in Guinea-Bissau

 The South China Morning Post published on 15 December 2025 an article titled "Latest Coup Raises Stakes for Beijing's Economic Interests in West Africa" by Jevans Nyabiage.

Just days after the Chinese ambassador met Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo to donate airport security inspection equipment, a military coup overturned the government.  Political instability in West Africa has raised the stakes for China's vast economic interests in the region.  Nevertheless, China is likely to remain active in West Africa and adapt to the most recent coup in Guinea-Bissau.  

Trump Administration Opposes South African G-20 Membership; China Supports It

 The Citizen published on 5 December 2025 an article titled "China Stands with South Africa as Trump Threatens G-20 Exclusion" by Zaghrah.  

President Trump has threatened to exclude South Africa from next year's G-20 Summit in Miami.  China has stepped in to support South Africa's inclusion.  China's backing of South Africa, the only African member of the G-20, is both strategic and symbolic.  

Ethiopia Loses Temporary Protected Status in US

 The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services published on 12 December 2025 an announcement titled "DHS Announces the Termination of Temporary Protected Status for Ethiopia."

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security concluded that conditions in Ethiopia no longer pose a serious threat to the personal safety of Ethiopian nationals.  Consequently, Secretary Kristi Noem terminated the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) designation of Ethiopia.  Ethiopian nationals with no other lawful basis for remaining in the United States have 60 days to voluntarily self deport.

VisaHQ.com posted on 13 December 2025 an announcement titled "U.S. Terminates Temporary Protected Status for Ethiopians, Affecting 30,700 Residents."

Comment:  This is part of the Trump administration's policy to remove from the country as many non-Americans as possible.  Reporting on the number of Ethiopians affected varies.  Some accounts place the number holding TPS as low as 5,000.

Sunday, December 14, 2025

Eritrea Withdraws from Regional Organization

 The BBC posted on 12 December 2025 an article titled "Eritrea Quits Regional Bloc as Tensions Rise with Ethiopia" by Tesfalem Araia.

Eritrea has withdrawn from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), accusing the organization of "becoming a tool against" countries like itself.  The withdrawal from the Horn of Africa organization follows a fierce war of words between Ethiopia, current chair of IGAD, and Eritrea.

Implications of China's Weapons Transfer to Burkina Faso

 China-Africa Security Radar posted on 14 December 2025 a commentary titled "China's Weapons for Burkina Faso" by Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah.

The author argued that China's large military equipment transfer to Burkina Faso last August raises the question as to what kind of order is Beijing constructing in the Sahel and at what cost to the region's long-term stability.  China is exploiting the withdrawal of Western security partners from the Sahel and becoming the security provider of first resort.  This is a transactional relationship: you need weapons, we sell weapons, and what you do with them is your business.  

But the transaction creates a dependency on China, including providing ammunition and spare parts.  In this transactional relationship, China gains influence, market access, diplomatic alignment, and a testing ground for its military equipment.  Beijing offers states in the Sahel not liberation from Western paternalism but membership in a different form of asymmetric relationship.

Saturday, December 13, 2025

China Gifts Headquarters of Economic Community of West African States

 The South China Morning Post published on 13 December 2025 an article titled "How China-built ECOWAS Headquarters Is Latest 'Concrete Symbol' of Africa Ties" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China gifted the $32 million headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, of the Economic Community of West African States.  It is the latest example of building diplomacy and China's program to build influence with African countries.

Sudan: Rapid Support Forces Atrocities in Darfur

 The Washington Post published on 12 December 2025 an article titled "In Sudan, Thousands Held Hostage for Ransom -- And Killed if They Can't Pay" by Katharine Houreld and Hafiz Haroun.  

Following the capture of the capital of North Darfur, El Fasher, by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from the Sudan Armed Forces, the RSF has engaged in horrific atrocities as documented in this account. 

China's Involvement in Guinea's Huge Iron Ore Project Has Global Implications

Think China published on 2 December 2025 an analysis titled "Simandou: The African Mine that Could Shake Australia and Reshape China's Rise" by Genevieve Donnellon-May. 

Guinea's Simandou complex is the world's largest untapped high-grade iron ore deposit and Africa's largest greenfield integrated mine and infrastructure project.  Chinese firms control 75 percent of the project.  The first iron ore shipment departed for China in November.  China consumes about 75 percent of global iron ore imports.  Beijing's growing control over African critical minerals is drawing scrutiny from the United States.

China Exits Sudan/South Sudan Oil Sector

 The Sudan Tribune posted on 9 December 2025 an article titled "China's Exit from Sudan Oil Fields Deepens Crisis for War-ravaged Economy."

Following the Rapid Support Forces' seizure of the strategic Heglig oil field in South Sudan, the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) declared force majeure and dissolved ahead of schedule its production-sharing and pipeline partnership in Sudan's oil sector.  This may end a vital revenue lifeline for both the Khartoum government and the government in South Sudan.  The early exit of CNPC also sends a chilling signal to future investors.

Friday, December 12, 2025

China-US Space Competition in Kenya

 The Star published on 11 December 2025 an article titled "China Rolls Out Space Expansion in Kenya amid Intensifying Rivalry with US in Africa" by Eliud Kibii.

The Kenya Space Agency recently hosted a high-level delegation from the Oriental Space Port Research Institute of China.  Beijing is competing with Washington for Kenya's collaboration in space and facilities on the ground.  This could place Kenya at the center of great power rivalry.   

China-US Investment Competition in Africa

 Deutsche Welle published on 12 December 2025 an article titled "Africa at the Center of US-China Resource Race" by David Ehi.  

In 2023, American companies invested more in Africa than did Chinese companies.  But figures for one year are misleading.  In recent years, Chinese companies have invested more in the continent than American companies.  

The author argues that US foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa is focused on making a profit for the investing company.  Chinese FDI, ultimately backed by the government of China, pursues long-term strategic goals, especially in the critical minerals sector.  

Cameroon-China Tariff-free Discussions

 Business in Cameroon published on 12 December 2025 an article titled "Cameroon-China Trade Pact Opens Door to Tarriff-Free Push for Cameroon Exports."

Cameroon and China have begun negotiations aimed at securing full, duty-free access for Cameroonian products to the Chinese market.  China is Cameroon's largest trading partner and has a significant trade surplus with the country.

China's Critical Minerals Strategy in Africa

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 9 December 2025 a paper titled "China's Critical Minerals Strategy in Africa" by Paul Nantulya.

China controls over half of global critical minerals production and an estimated 87 percent of its processing and refining capacity.  It also produces nearly 70 percent of rare earth minerals.

China's strategy for dominance in critical minerals includes a tolerance for high-risk projects, generous government support to Chinese companies, diversified access to minerals, financial support of African infrastructure linked to mineral extraction, financing the development of African mineral projects, and strategic stockpiling of critical minerals in China.  

Somali Fraud in Minnesota: Prosecute Bad Actors but Don't Demonize Entire Community

 The Wall Street Journal published on 4 December 2025 an article titled "A Sprawling Fraud Scandal Puts Minnesota's Somali Community in the Spotlight" by Scott Calvert and Jeanne Whalen.  

About 80,000 people of Somali descent live in Minnesota. About 60 persons have been convicted of massive fraud from child nutrition, housing, and autism service programs funded by taxpayers.  President Trump has used the situation to refer to the Somali community in Minnesota as "garbage" and urged them to return to Somalia.

Comment:  This episode is clearly a major blot on the reputation of the Somali community in Minnesota.  But the answer is to prosecute to the full extent of the law all of those persons who are guilty and not to vilify the entire Somali community.  

Thursday, December 11, 2025

Nigeria and China Deepen Strategic Ties

 Radio Nigeria posted on 8 December 2025 an article titled "Nigeria, China Deepen Strategic Ties, Pledge Stronger Economic, Security Cooperation" by Sandra Chukwugekwu.

China's ambassador to Nigeria and Nigeria's minister of foreign affairs met to reaffirm Beijing's political support for Abuja.  The ambassador aligned China with the minister's "concerns over the mischaracterisation of regional crises by external actors."

Comment:  This is a lightly veiled reference to the inaccurate allegations by the United States of anti-Christian policies by the Nigerian government.  China is taking advantage of the situation by reinforcing its ties with Abuja.  It is following a similar strategy in South Africa where US ties have also reached a low point.   


Sudan: Implications of Heglig Capture by RSF

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File posted on 11 December 2025 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.  

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces' capture of the Heglig oil field in South Sudan has intensified the Sudan crisis and brought South Sudan to the brink of war.

Another Journalist Arrested in Ethiopia

 The Committee to Protect Journalists published on 10 December 2025 a press release titled "Ethiopian TikTok Journalist Eyob Shimelis Detained after Corruption Reporting."

Ethiopian authorities arrested on December 1 the founder and reporter of TikTok-based Sidama News, which reports on corruption in Ethiopia's southern Sidama state.  

Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Sudan: RSF Takes Control of South Sudan's Strategic Heglig Oil Field

 Bloomberg published on 10 December 2025 an article titled "South Sudan Oil Exports at Risk" by Simon Marks and Salma El Wardany.  

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized the strategic Heglig oil field in South Sudan near the border with Sudan.  The crude from Heglig is transported by pipeline through Sudan to Port Sudan on the Red Sea.  South Sudan obtains nearly all of its state revenue from oil exports.  The seizure of the oil field by the RSF raises the prospect of a halt in South Sudanese oil exports and the loss of pipeline revenue for the Sudan Armed Forces.   

Madagascar-China Relations

 The People's Map of Global China published on 25 November 2025 a paper titled "Madagascar" by Xuefei Shi, a development researcher based in Bergen, Norway.

This is a nice summary of the relationship between Madagascar and China.  It covers historical ties as well as the current relationship.  

Worsening African Trade Deficit with China

 B & FT Online posted on 10 December 2025 an article titled "Africa's Huge Trade Deficit: A Case of Lagging Processing Power" by Brian Muloni.  

In 2024, Africa's trade deficit with China, its largest trade partner, was $61 billion and it is on track to worsen significantly in 2025.  There are several reasons for this long-standing trade deficit with China, but the most important factor is that African exports to China are mainly raw materials while imports from China are mainly finished or manufactured goods.

South Africa and China Expand Exchanges for Young Scientists

 South Africa's Department of Science, Technology and Innovation issued on 8 December 2025 a press release titled "South Africa and China Strengthen Cooperation among Young Scientists."

A visiting Chinese delegation signed with South Africa's deputy minister of science, technology and innovation a memorandum of understanding to expand technical opportunities for young scientists from South Africa and China.  

Comment:  As US-South Africa relations continue to deteriorate, they are expanding at all levels with China.  

Kenya and China Hold Security Talks on Bilateral Projects

 Capital FM published on 9 December 2025 an article titled "Kenya, China Hold High-Level Security Review on Bilateral Projects" by Bruhan Makong.

Reflecting Chinese concerns about security for its personnel working on infrastructure projects in Kenya, its deputy director general for security cooperation led a delegation to Nairobi to discuss the safety of Chinese nationals, project sites, and equipment undertaken through Kenya-China cooperation.  

Ethiopia: Risking War by Seeking Access to the Sea

 The Associated Press published on 9 December 2025 an article titled "Ethiopia Embraces Big Projects but Risks Another War by Seeking Access to the Sea" by Fred Harter.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is determined to obtain access to the Red Sea for landlocked Ethiopia.  But this goal risks a miscalculation and the possibility of war with neighboring Eritrea.  

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Communist Party of China and Xinhua News Agency Host Forum in Kenya

 Kenya's The Star published on 9 December 2025 an article titled "Experts Share Insights on Advancing China-Africa Modernization at Hong Ting Forum in Kenya."

The Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Xinhua News Agency hosted in Nairobi on 4 December the Hong Ting Forum to discuss innovative ways of advancing China-Africa modernization.  It brought together government officials, think tank representatives, and media practitioners.  One of the African participants said the China-Africa relationship is being redefined to focus more on software, including skills and technology transfer, cultural exchanges, and green development.

Comment:  On April 2, 2025, Xinhua News Agency but not the CPC hosted the Hong Ting Forum in Nairobi.  It is not clear why these sessions took place so close together.