Analysis of situation in Somalia

The Institute for Security Studies published an analysis of the situation in Somalia in October 2010 by Solomon A. Dersso titled "Somalia Dilemmas: Changing Security Dynamics, but Limited Policy Choices" (PDF).

The study examines the current state of the Somali crisis. It provides a descriptive analysis of the armed opposition, especially al-Shabaab. It looks at the pitfalls of the international focus on the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and highlights the weaknesses of the African Union force in Mogadishu.

The study argues that with the TFG failing to achieve a cohesive leadership or functioning governance structure, and lacking a well organized and motivated military capability, there is little chance that al-Shabaab's insurgency and the resultant misery, death and dislocation of ordinary Somalis can be curbed, despite the emerging division in al-Shabaab.

The study also suggests that the African Union force is increasingly emerging as inadequate and thus risks failure to achieve its mandate.