International Crisis Group Report on Uganda

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published a report on 5 April 2012 titled Uganda: No Resolution to Growing Tensions. It acknowledged that most Ugandans are better off now than they were when Yoweri Museveni became president. Nevertheless, many are deeply dissatisfied with his administration. This is largely the consequence of a slow shift from a broad-based constitutional government to patronage-based, personal rule. The ICG argued that Museveni has failed to overcome regional and religious cleavages that make Uganda difficult to govern and that he has relied increasingly on centralization, patronage and coercion to maintain control.

The discovery of significant oil reserves (estimated at 2.5 billion barrels) is unlikely to reduce social and political tensions. The oil may ensure Museveni's control by enabling him to consolidate his system of patronage but also will increase corruption and disrupt the steady growth produced by economic diversification.

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