The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in South Africa published in October 2013 a paper titled "Prospects for Africa's 26 Fragile Countries" by Jakkie Cilliers, ISS executive director, and Timothy Sisk, professor of international and comparative politics at the University of Denver.
The paper provides a long-term forecast of 26 fragile African countries. They are chosen on the basis of comparative lists of fragile countries from indicators that reflect the fragility syndrome. The forecasts suggest that, in the long-term, ten countries in Africa will continue to remain fragile into the mid-21st century.
All of the countries in the Horn of Africa are among the 26 fragile countries except for Djibouti. Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia are included among the ten that are projected to remain fragile until 2050.