Chatham House published on 18 October 2016 a commentary titled "Ethiopian Politics Beyond the Vanguard?" by Jason Mosley.
Mosley concluded that protests this past year in Ethiopia indicated the population--especially the youth, which has benefitted from the expansion in education--no longer accepts the EPRDF's vanguard role. The coming months will reveal whether there is a future for the EPRDF government beyond the vanguard, potentially opening the way for more genuinely participatory governance.