The Conversation published on 21 November 2021 a commentary titled "Ethiopia's Civil War: Five Reasons Why History Won't Repeat Itself" by Tobias Hagmann, Roskilde University.
The author says there are 5 reasons why the Abiy Ahmed government will not come to the same end as the Derg regime did in 1991:
--Abiy Ahmed's leadership is not deeply unpopular.
--The federal army is weaker and regional security forces are stronger.
--Political alliances are fragile.
--Eritrean forces backed the TPLF in 1991; now they back the central government.
--Tigrayan leaders are divided on the long-term future of their region.
