The International Crisis Group posted on 19 September 2024 a 39-minute podcast titled "Somalia Amid a Swirl of Regional Tensions" with Alan Boswell and Omar Mahmood.
Somalia is insisting that Ethiopia renounce the memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, which Ethiopia refuses to do. Somalia signed a new security agreement with Turkey and followed this with some kind of secret agreement with Egypt, which may include training of Somali soldiers. Turkey and Egypt seem to be working to cooperate in Somalia.
If Ethiopia does not renounce the MOU, Somalia said Ethiopian troops will no longer be permitted to participate in the ATMIS stabilization mission. There is speculation that Egyptian troops will replace them, which would be challenging for Egypt to do. It could also result in a short-term security vacuum.
Both Ethiopia and Somalia are engaged in brinkmanship. This situation leaves openings for al-Shabaab to expand its influence in Somalia. The Islamic State remains operationally insignificant inside Somalia but is playing a larger external role.
