The Emirates Policy Center published on 7 November 2025 an analysis titled "Djibouti at a Crossroads: The Presidential Transition Crisis Ahead of April 2026 Elections."
President Ismail Omar Guelleh is considering amending the constitution to pursue a sixth term. Three scenarios now face Djibouti's political future: (1) a constitutional amendment allowing Guelleh to remain president for a sixth term; (2) a controlled and negotiated transfer of power; or (3) elections that result in an alternative candidate from the Issa clan assuming office.
