Background on January 2019 Al-Shabaab Attack in Nairobi

The CTC Sentinel published in July 2019 an article titled "East Africa's Terrorist Triple Helix: The Dusit Hotel Attack and the Historical Evolution of the Jihadi Threat" by Matt Bryden and Premdeep Bahra, both with the Sahan think tank in Nairobi.

The authors point out that the attack on 15 January 2019 of an office complex in Nairobi, Kenya, by al-Shabaab that killed 21 people and injured at least 28 involved Kenyan nationals of non-Somali descent. They conclude that al-Shabaab's longstanding ambition to transcend its Somali origins and become a truly regional organization is becoming a reality, representing a new and dangerous phase in the group's evolution and the threat that it poses to the region.

Background of Al-Shabaab

The Council on Foreign Relations posted on 16 January 2019 a background piece on al-Shabaab by Claire Felter, Jonathan Masters, and Mohammed Aly Sergie.

Somalia: Al-Shabaab -- It Will Be a Long War

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 26 June 2014 a solid and detailed analysis titled "Somalia: Al-Shabaab -- It Will Be a Long War."

ICG concluded that al-Shabaab represents a culmination of the long-term shift toward social conservatism in Somalia that is difficult to reverse.  As an insurgent group, al-Shabaab retains core constituencies in many parts of south-central Somalia that are not currently addressed by locally-acceptable governance alternatives.  As an organization, al-Shabaab has demonstrated an aptitude for strategic planning that should not be underestimated.  It remains rooted in its Somali context, is willing to learn and benefit from external influence--notably al-Qaeda--while retaining a strong inclination toward local autonomy.