Sudan's Tortured Peace Process

The Enough Project published on 1 April 2014 a commentary titled "Sudan's Tortured Peace Process" by Omer Ismail and Akshaya Kumar.  They argue the current effort that continues to support fragmented negotiations for each of Sudan's regional conflicts is counterproductive.  What is needed is a holistic approach

Growing Crisis between Two Sudans

South Africa's Institute for Security Studies (ISS) published a well reasoned analysis of the worsening situation between Sudan and South Sudan. Written by Andrews Atta-Asamoah, ISS senior researcher in Pretoria, it identifies three issues that could lead to full scale war: (1) the continued existence of bitterness that has led to an atmosphere of intense mutual suspicion between the two countries; (2) a preoccupation with access to oil wealth; and (3) a lack of appreciation by the political leadership of both countries as to the degree the economic, security and cultural destinies of the two countries are inextricably linked. Atta-Asamoah stops well short of predicting a return to all out war.

Click here to read the brief commentary.

Since the independence of South Sudan, I have argued that full scale war would not resume between Sudan and South Sudan. While the conflict along the border has become more serious than I thought would be the case, I continue to believe the two countries will avoid all out war. Serious conflict between northern and southern Sudan raged sporadically from 1955 until a cease fire in 2003. Neither side won and both sides understood that they could not win a definitive military victory. Both countries appreciate that an all out war would devastate their respective economies and probably result in the removal of both of their leaderships. That is why I continue to believe the leadership in Sudan and South Sudan will stop short of all out war. Ultimately, rationality will prevail.