Racism Is Universal; China Is No Exception

 Panda Paw Dragon Claw published on 21 June 2022 a commentary titled "BRI Notebook: 'Racism for Sale'" by T. J. Ma.  

This commentary discusses a BBC investigative report "Racism for Sale" of a Chinese online industry that has set off a storm in the China-Africa space.  The particular online video exposed by the BBC is a clear case of racism, but it is part of an industry that is much less clear and poses challenges for ending. 

Ethiopia: International Coverage of Situation in Tigray Off to Rocky Start

 The Committee to Protect Journalists posted on 1 March 2021 a statement titled "Ethiopian Military Detains BBC Reporter, Translators for AFP and FT."

The Ethiopian prime minister's office announced on 24 February that it had invited journalists from seven international media outlets, including the Agence France Presse (AFP), Financial Times (FT), and BBC to report on the conflict in Tigray Region.  On 27 February, the military arrested in Mekelle, the capital of Tigray Region, two Ethiopian translators with AFP and a member of the FT news crew.  On 1 March, they arrested an Ethiopian reporter with the BBC's Tigrinya-language service.  

Kenya seeks help of Arab League

BBC World Service asked me to comment 17 November, 2011, on Kenya’s request to the Arab League, which is meeting in Morocco, to support its intervention in Somalia.

I responded that Kenya is not a member of the Arab League but Somalia, represented by the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), is a member. I made the assumption that the TFG is in agreement with Kenya’s demarche to the Arab League. This is important, because the TFG president not long ago expressed concern about Kenya’s role in Somalia, while the TFG prime minister strongly supported it. If there is still disagreement within the TFG on the Kenyan intervention, I doubted that anything positive would come out of the Arab League meeting.

On the other hand, if the TFG and Kenya have coordinated their positions, it is possible the Arab League, which has been supportive of the TFG in the past, might issue a positive statement on Kenya’s involvement in Somalia. That said, the Arab League is not likely to offer any tangible support. A positive statement might, however, encourage one or more Arab League members on their own to offer tangible support.

Kenya has also offered, if asked, to provide a few battalions to the African Union force in Mogadishu (AMISOM). Djibouti and Sierra Leone have promised troops in the coming months to join the 9,700 Ugandan and Burundi troops already there. Even if Kenyan troops were to join this growing force, AMISOM is confined to Mogadishu and does not appear to have any intention of going any significant distance outside the capital.

Should Kenya succeed in removing al-Shabaab from a corridor along its border, including the key port town of Kismayu, and contribute troops to AMISOM in Mogadishu, this still leaves a huge piece of territory under the control of al-Shabaab between Mogadishu and whatever buffer zone the Kenyans are able to create along its border in southern Somalia.

Kenya may have a coherent long-term plan for countering al-Shabaab in Somalia. If that is the case, it is not apparent to me.

Kenyan troops enter Somalia

BBC radio and television asked me to comment 17 October on Kenya’s military intervention in Somalia. While acknowledging that Kenya had other options to pursue, including taking the matter to the United Nations, I suggested that the frustration of recent attacks inside Kenya against tourists and non-governmental organization personnel pushed the Kenyans to the limit. They decided they had to respond militarily. Obtaining some kind of UN sanction for the operation would have taken considerable time.

It is not clear whether al-Shabaab carried out the attacks inside Kenya, but it is clear that the perpetrators took the hostages to territory inside Somalia controlled by al-Shabaab, thus making al-Shabaab complicit in the attacks.

The objective of the Kenyan military operation and the length of time the Kenyan forces intend to remain inside Somalia remain unclear. The longer they remain, however, the greater will be the animosity of the average Somali against Kenya.

The Kenyan forces may intend to clear a buffer zone along the Kenya-Somali border and then install Somali forces who oppose al-Shabaab and are friendly with Kenya. Kenya may go as far as the important al-Shabaab port city of Kismayu and try to put friendly Somali forces in charge of the port so that al-Shabaab can no longer use it as a major source of revenue, including the transit of products that are smuggled into Kenya.

This action does raise the possibility of al-Shabaab terrorist attacks inside Kenya such as occurred in Kampala, Uganda, in July 2010. So far, al-Shabaab has avoided terrorist attacks in Kenya because, I believe, it benefits from the illegal trade into Kenya and receives financial support from sympathizers in the large Somali community in Nairobi. Al-Shabaab did not want to jeopardize this cozy relationship by attacking Kenya. It may now conclude that retaliation is more important than continuing the economic advantages that it had in Kenya.

Kenya almost certainly consulted key allies such as Ethiopia, the United States and United Kingdom on this operation but the decision to send troops into Somalia was, I believe, Kenya’s alone. The United States has in the past provided counterterrorism training and shared intelligence with key allies in the region, including Kenya. Although I doubt that the United States had a direct role in the intervention, there is no reason to believe that it objected to the operation.

Ethiopian peacekeeping troops going to Abyei in Sudan

UN Peacekeepers on Patrol in Abyei. May 24, 2011. Flickr/UN.

The BBC World Service asked me to comment June 20 on the decision earlier in the day by Sudan to accept Ethiopian troops under United Nations mandate to keep the peace in troubled Abyei region along the north-south Sudanese border.

I responded that Ethiopia has had experience in providing peacekeeping troops in the past and is probably one of the few African countries that could make available a brigade (about 4,000 troops) on short notice. Ethiopia troops are acceptable to both North and South Sudan and do not have to come from a long distance, although they may need transport assistance in getting to Abyei.

The BBC announcer suggested that Ethiopian troops might get into the same kinds of problems in Abyei that they encountered in Somalia from 2007 to 2009. While I agreed that they had significant problems in Somalia, this situation is different.

Ethiopia, with the approval of the Somali Transitional Federal Government, made the decision unilaterally to enter Somalia. It was not a UN peacekeeping operation. Abyei is sanctioned and paid for by the UN. The circumstances are entirely different.

It is unlikely the Ethiopian force will encounter the same kinds of problems in Abyei that they faced in Somalia.

African Union asks UN to impose air and naval blockade on Somalia

The BBC World Service asked me on Oct. 21 to comment on remarks made by the African Union (AU) Commissioner for Peace and Security Ramtane Lamamra to back a naval and air blockade of Somalia and to increase the number of troops in Somalia to 20,000 from the current number of less than 8,000.

I responded that I am sympathetic with the request by the AU to have this peacekeeping operation funded and even operated by the UN. Peacekeeping operations should be organized by the UN, not the AU. The UN has the funding; the AU does not.

On the other hand, the AU request for supporting an air and naval blockade of Somalia is not realistic. Somalia has the longest sea coast of any African country and its land borders, especially with Kenya, are extremely porous.

The international naval flotilla that has tried to end piracy off the coast of Somalia has been able to reduce the amount of successful seizures but has been unable to stop it even in the confined waters of the Gulf of Aden. It is too easy for small vessels transporting arms and illicit material to find a port of call along the Somali coast.

On the other hand, it might be possible to focus naval resources at the southern Somali port of Kismayu, which the al-Shabaab organization controls and uses to great advantage. If ships entering that port could be inspected before arrival, it would diminish al-Shabaab’s capacity.


A Kismayu beach. Flickr creative commons licensed content by user erikschmidt.

The BBC correspondent asked if the time has not come to talk with al-Shabaab. I responded that if Somalis want to talk with al-Shabaab that is their business. The international community, on the other hand, has nothing to talk about with al-Shabaab, which is dedicated to the creation of an Islamic caliphate, opposes the West, wants to overthrow the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia, plans to reincorporate the Somali-inhabited areas of neighboring countries and will only be happy if it has total power in Somalia. What is there to talk about?

New U.S. policy on Somalia

BBC English language radio and Arabic language TV asked me to comment today on the new U.S. approach towards Somalia spelled out at the United Nations in New York on September 23 by Deputy Secretary of State Jim Steinberg and on September 24 by Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson.

I explained to the BBC English-language radio program that the new policy consists of two tracks.

1. The first one is a continuation of the status quo, whereby the United States will support the Djibouti peace proces and the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and will work to strengthen the African Union peacekeeping force in Mogadishu.
2. The second track is new and consists of more active engagement with and support for the government of Somaliland, which has unilaterally declared independence, and the semi-autonomous government in Puntland. This will consist of more frequent contact and increased development assistance. Most important, this track will reach out to clans, sub-clans and elders in south and central Somalia who live in areas now controlled by al-Shabaab but would like to see an end to the al-Shabaab presence. The goal is to support development initiatives that they would like to have implemented. This will be a difficult task in view of strong opposition by al-Shabaab, but it holds out more hope than just continuing to pursue the status quo.

The Arabic-language program, which included a spokesperson for the TFG, focused on the possibility that the new U.S. approach would undermine the TFG and result in al-Shabaab attacks in Puntland and Somaliland.

I responded that the TFG should not be concerned. The United States will continue to support it, but it clearly is not succeeding in establishing authority in Somalia. As a result, it is important to reach out to other centers of power and this could eventually work to the benefit of the TFG.

As for encouraging al-Shabaab attacks on Puntland and Somaliland, al-Shabaab has already carried out attacks in Puntland and conducted terrorist activity in Somaliland. This policy change will not make such attacks any easier for al-Shabaab.

Interview with BBC World Today

BBC radio World Today asked for my comments yesterday on the significance of Ethiopia’s national elections.

The interview took place before the results were known, although the assumption was that the EPRDF had won. I responded that the elections were important, because they would serve as an indicator whether Ethiopia was advancing towards a more open political system or reverting to the closed pattern of the 1995 and 2000 elections when the opposition was weak and, in any event, had little opportunity to play a meaningful role.

The elections were also important because Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa, is critical to stability in East Africa and the Horn. Instability in neighboring countries impacts Ethiopia, and problems in Ethiopia have a negative effect on the region. It is essential that Ethiopia remain stable and make progress towards democratization.

BBC Focus on Africa asks for analysis of Western relations with Ethiopia

As the election approaches in Ethiopia on 23 May, the BBC Focus on Africa program asked on May 17 for my views on why the United States and Western countries generally consider Ethiopia to be the "darling" of Africa.

While I acknowledged that Ethiopia has cordial relations with most Western countries and has a privileged relationship with the United States, I would not describe it as the "darling." U.S. officials, in their dialogue with Ethiopian officials, regularly express their concern over Ethiopian human rights practices, the slow pace of democratization and even a few economic policies that it finds wanting.

At the same time, the United States must balance these concerns with Ethiopia's success in achieving a respectable GDP growth rate, significantly improving infrastructure and support for United Nations peacekeeping operations in Africa and cooperation with the United States on counter-terrorism.

Ethiopia is the world’s 12th largest supplier of troops for UN peacekeeping operations. Its policy in Somalia in late 2006 and 2007 generally coincided with U.S. policy towards Somalia at the time. In my view, this policy was misguided, but the fact remains that the United States and Ethiopia worked together in Somalia.

The BBC asked why the United States does not pressure Ethiopia to improve its human rights practices. While it is true that the United States provides a considerable amount of aid to Ethiopia, about 90 percent of it is designed to counter HIV/AIDS or provide emergency food aid. This does not provide political leverage. The United States would make this kind of assistance available irrespective of the government in Addis Ababa.

The interviewer suggested there is a double standard when it comes to assistance to Ethiopia as compared to Kenya. But the United States has not eliminated aid to Kenya. While it may be less on a proportional basis, it still continues. If you move one country further south to Tanzania, you have an aid relationship that underscores U.S. support for a country that is in some ways more positive than the U.S. aid relationship with Ethiopia. Tanzania qualified for a half billion dollar grant from the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). Ethiopia does not even qualify for funding from the MCC.

Another al-Shabaab announcement that probably doesn't represent any significant change in Somalia

The BBC Focus on Africa program asked me to comment yesterday on the announcement by the Somali extremist organization, al-Shabaab, that it must join officially with al Qaeda to confront "international crusaders and their aggression against Muslim people." I responded that al-Shabaab has claimed to have a link with al Qaeda for more than a year. This announcement is an effort to formalize something that already existed in principle. It remains to be seen if this will result in more support, for example more foreign fighters, and direction from al Qaeda. There might be a situation where al-Shabaab begins to look like a group primarily active in Algeria known as al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The al-Shabaab announcement could even result eventually in a name change to something like al Qaeda in Somalia. The announcement probably does not portend any significant change of activity in Somalia, where al-Shabaab strongly opposes the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the African Union troops in Mogadishu from Uganda and Burundi that support the TFG. On the other hand, it may have an impact on countries in the region. Al-Shabaab might try to carry out attacks in neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia and against Uganda and Burundi, which provides troops for the African Union in Mogadishu. Once al-Shabaab establishes a formal link with al Qaeda, there almost certainly will be a greater effort by the West in general and the United States in particular to counter al-Shabaab. African countries in the region may also step up their activity against al-Shabaab.

Pre-recorded interview with BBC World Service on al Qaeda situation in Somalia and Yemen

In an interview with the BBC World Service yesterday, I commented on the al Qaeda links between Somalia and Yemen. While noting that the al Qaeda threat in Yemen is far more serious than the one in Somalia, there is considerable contact between Somalis and Yemenis. More than 200,000 Somalis have taken refuge in Yemen. Although the vast majority is economic refugees, a tiny percentage has almost certainly been attracted to terrorist training camps in Yemen. In addition, a small number of Yemeni jihadis has joined al-Shabaab in Somalia, an organization that flaunts its connection with al Qaeda. Yemen is clearly the focus of U.S. interest as evidenced by recent announcements of increases in funding for Yemeni security forces and development assistance to the country. While the United States is primarily interested in Yemen because of its connection with the Nigerian suicide bomber who tried to blow up a Northwest flight to Detroit, there will probably be some spillover attention given to the situation in Somalia. Al Qaeda links with Yemen are long-standing, date back to the early 1990s and include the attack on the USS Cole off the coast of Yemen in 2000. Image: USS Cole by Flickr user mashleymorgan, licensed by Creative Commons.

Sec. Clinton on U.S. policy on Sudan

BBC TV asked for my reaction yesterday to the new U.S. policy on Sudan announced by Secretary Clinton earlier in the day. I replied that it reflected a new reality on the ground in both Darfur and southern Sudan. The situation in Darfur has improved and the death rate has dropped dramatically. The situation concerning implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the war between northern and southern Sudan has become more worrisome. Although the policy proscribes the Obama administration from dealing directly with Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir, who is under indictment by the International Criminal Court for war crimes in Darfur, I did not believe this would hinder Washington's ability to engage with Sudan, which has designated senior officials to oversee negotiations concerning both Darfur and implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. When asked about the probable reaction of human rights groups to the new policy, I responded that some of them would be displeased but hoped they too would recognize the new reality on the ground.

The longer Eritrea supports al-Shabaab, the more isolated it will be in the international community

I interviewed with BBC radio's "Focus on Africa" program yesterday. The questions dealt with the expulsion of an Eritrean diplomat by the Kenyan government for "security" reasons the day after Secretary Clinton departed Kenya. The key concern of the United States is Eritrea's continuing support for the extremist al-Shabaab organization that it trying to overthrow the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG). The United Nations, African Union, Arab League, and the United States all support the TFG. I believe that Eritrea is the only government that supports al-Shabaab, although it does get assistance from jihadis in South Asia and the Middle East. Eritrea has long denied that it supports al-Shabaab, but the Intergovernmental Authority for Development and African Union have declared that it is supporting the extremist organization. The longer Eritrea supports al-Shabaab, the more isolated it will become in the international community.

Interview with World Have Your Say (BBC radio)

I participated in a BBC radio panel discussion "World Have Your Say" on July 28, 2009, on the subject of Islamic extremism in Africa. Much of the program focused on northern Nigeria, which was the location recently of extremist Islamic attacks against police stations and government buildings. I focused primarily on East Africa and the Horn, noting that the situation is especially worrisome in Somalia. There was much discussion about the relationship between poverty and Islamic extremism. I emphasized that poverty, social and economic inequality, political marginalization of ethnic and religious minorities, and corruption are not direct causes of extremism. The establishment of extremist Islamic groups requires persons with an extremist ideology and a commitment, often from outside Africa, to mobilize local people with grievances to join the cause. This is where poverty and the other factors play a role. They create a negative, local environment which extremists can manipulate for their own reasons. And we are not just talking about Islamic extremists. The Lord's Resistance Army in northern Uganda is a non-Muslim group, for example, that is as extreme as any Islamic group in East Africa and the Horn. Salafi and Wahhabi influence from Egypt, the Gulf States, and South Asia have reached East Africa and the Horn and, in the case of al-Shabaab in Somalia, become radicalized and politicized. Only a tiny percentage of Muslims in the region, however, agree with these extremist ideologies. To listen to the interview, click below (though the BBC producer has said that the clip will only be up for a few days).

Pres. Obama lays out general Africa themes, but we still need the details.

I participated in the BBC radio "Focus on Africa" program today concerning the visit to Ghana by President Obama. Most of the participants focused on the president's call to Africans to take control of their own future and the need for good governance. I noted that he also emphasized a willingness by the United States to support development that offers real benefits to more people, especially the improvement of agriculture and food security. Although he did not use the term in his speech in Ghana, he has called elsewhere for a green revolution in Africa. He also stated that the United States would continue the effort of President Bush to fight HIV/AIDS, malaria, and TB in Africa. He added to this list the eradication of polio and neglected tropical disease. Finally, he stated that the United States would step up its efforts to prevent and mitigate conflict in Africa, noting in particular the on-going problems in Darfur, Somalia, and the Congo. When asked what was left out of the speech, I suggested that I missed more emphasis on private American investment in Africa, as this could provide the most positive impact on improving African economies.

BBC interview on Somalia

I had a phone interview today with the BBC World Service "Network Africa" program on the situation in Somalia. In response to a question, I suggested the current violence in Somalia is not, as the interviewer commented, the worst ever in the country, but only a spike in violence. There have been a number of these spikes since 1991, some of which have been more serious than the current one. There is more activity by the extremist al-Shabaab organization that opposes the Transitional Federal Government. Al-Shabaab has also made increasing use of suicide bombers and political assassinations. This suggests a growing foreign jihadi element in support of al-Shabaab. While these tactics may have short-term success, I believe the vast majority of Somalis oppose them. Over the medium and long-term, these tactics will cause considerable resentment among most Somalis.

Interview with BBC Focus on Africa

BBC Focus on Africa published an interview with me as a two-page spread titled "Loaded Questions" in its January - March 2009 issue. The subheading of the article is: "What will the Obama presidency mean for Africa? Nick Ericsson finds out from an analyst and former US ambassador to the continent Professor David Shinn." BBC has not posted the article online, but there is an online forum here asking

Will Obama be a friend to Africa? Is Barack Obama likely to be a 'President for Africa'? Do you think his foreign policy will prioritise seeking the end to Africa's bloody and drawn-out conflicts? Or will the problems facing the United States prevent him from substantial commitments to his father's homeland? Could it be that President Bush and his generous aid packages have set the bar higher than Obama with his inherited tight purse strings can better?

Here's how I responded to the BBC's first question, "With strong Kenyan heritage will Barack Obama be a 'President for Africa'?"

I think initially he is going to be careful about the degree to which he engages in African issues -- because of the fact that he has this African heritage. Also there are so many other pressing issues in the United States. The economic crisis will overshadow almost everything in the initial months as well as problems aroudn the world -- Iraq and Afghanistan, North Korea, Russia, China and the Palestinian issue. It is not realistic to expect that he will focus on Africa immediately.

Al-Shabaab's entry into Baidoa following the departure of Ethiopian forces

I was interviewed yesterday by both BBC World Service TV and Radio about Somalia. Both the TV and Radio stations were primarily interested in the implications of the entry into Baidoa, the former Transitional Federal Government (TFG) headquarters in south central Somalia, of the Islamic militia known as al-Shabaab following the departure of Ethiopian forces. I argued this was no surprise, except that it happened faster than I anticipated. Baidoa has periodically witnessed fighting among different factions for many years. In one sense, this is a return to the past except one of the factions is different. Al-Shabaab is the best financed and best-armed group in Somalia today, but this does not assure that it will receive the support of most Somalis. A Shabaab spokesman took credit for the suicide bombing in Mogadishu three days ago that killed many innocent Somalis. Al-Shabaab also continues to carry out political assassinations. These radical tactics will not win over most Somalis. The problem is that the TFG and its moderate Islamist allies are in disarray. They are currently meeting in Djibouti where they agreed yesterday to double the size of parliament, primarily to add 200 moderate Islamists to the organization. The parliament has not yet elected a new president. At this point, it is not clear how much support the moderate Islamists will bring to this new government. The next several weeks in Somalia will favor Shabaab, but it is still possible for a moderate group of Somalis to assert control, especially if Shabaab continues to exercise extreme and unpopular tactics.

An opportunity for Somalia in the resignation of its president

On Dec. 30, I interviewed with BBC Radio about Somalia. I explained that the imminent departure of Ethiopian troops from Somalia and the recent resignation of the president of the Somali Transitional National Government offer an opportunity for a breakthrough in achieving a political solution. Over the short-term, the security situation could become even more difficult in the capital of Mogadishu, but in the coming weeks and months it now may be possible for Somalis to reach an understanding on a broad-based national government.