Sudan Is Unraveling and May Divide Again

 Foreign Affairs published on 29 April 2025 an analysis titled "Sudan Is Unraveling: Why War Is Likely to Once Again Tear the Country Apart" by Mai Hassan and Ahmed Kodouda.  

Sudan divided into two countries in 2011 when South Sudan became independent.  The country's second de facto partition is already beginning along east/west lines.  But any split is unlikely to bring durable peace.

Because the conflict is driven by a struggle over regional power and resources, rather than any larger political vision for the country, it remains likely that alliances will keep shifting, local militias will keep defecting, and breakaway groups will keep forming.  

The Complexities of Conflict in South Sudan

 The International Crisis Group posted on 28 March 2025 a 44-minute podcast titled "South Sudan on the Brink of Another War" hosted by Richard Atwood with Alan Boswell and Daniel Akesh.  

They examine what's behind recent clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile State before spreading to other parts of the country.  They also look at President Salva Kiir's government shakeup and how the war in neighboring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan.

Sudan's Nuba Mountains Offer Relative Security but Growing Humanitarian Needs

 Refugees International published in August 2024 a report titled "The Nuba Mountains: A Window into the Sudan Crisis" by Daniel P. Sullivan.

Amid the turmoil in Sudan, the Nuba mountains bordering South Sudan, and long controlled by the Sudan People's Liberation Movement North, has become a haven of relative security, but far from untouched.  An estimated 700,000 internally displaced people from other parts of Sudan have arrived in the Nuba mountains.  As a result, it is both necessary and possible to scale up the humanitarian response.  

Conversation with Former US Special Envoy for Sudan

The U.S. Institute for Peace published a three part interview with Princeton Lyman, former U.S. special envoy for Sudan.  Part I dated 28 April 2014 is titled "Sudan National Dialogue."  Part II dated 30 April 2014 is titled "Sudan and the West."  Part III dated 2 May 2014 is titled "Sudan Looking Ahead."  The series offers useful insights on U.S. policy and the challenges for finding solutions to the problems in Sudan and South Sudan.

U.S. Policy toward Sudan and South Sudan

The House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health, Global Human Rights and International Organizations held a hearing on 26 February 2014 titled "U.S. Policy toward Sudan and South Sudan."  The hearing, chaired by Chairman Smith, examined the need for a more unified, wider- ranging and proactive policy that can advance long-term U.S. goals in Sudan and South Sudan. 

The full text of the opening statements of each witness is available by clicking the name of the witness.  The witnesses included Donald Booth, special envoy to Sudan and South Sudan, U.S. Department of State; John Prendergast, co-founder, Enough Project; Walid Phares, co-secretary general, Transatlantic Group on Counter Terrorism; and Adotei Akwei, managing director for government relations, Amnesty International US. 

Dialogue in Sudan

The US Institute of Peace (USIP) in Washington published on 13 August 2013 a brief paper titled "Pathway to National Dialogue in Sudan" by Princeton Lyman and Jon Temin.  It analyzes the prospects for genuine national dialogue and reform in Sudan, concluding that any meaningful process will be lengthy.  If a genuine, inclusive process is underway, elections in 2015 may need to be delayed.

Lyman is a special adviser to the president of USIP and the former US special envoy for Sudan and South Sudan.  Temin is the director of the Horn of Africa program at USIP.

Conflict in Sudan's Blue Nile State

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 18 June 2013 an extensive report titled "Sudan's Spreading Conflict (II): War in Blue Nile."  It covers all aspects of the ongoing conflict in Sudan's Blue Nile State.

The ICG concludes that Blue Nile State has become a major battleground for the ideological competition between two opposed models: Khartoum's attempts at unifying and centralizing the country with a dominant Arab-Islamic identity, which South Sudan's separation is paradoxically reviving, versus the rebel SPLM/A's and now Sudan Revolutionary Front's agenda for a more inclusive and devolved Sudan.  Attempts to resolve Blue Nile's past and current conflicts reflect Sudan's existential dilemma as to how best it should define itself.