Peaceful Somaliland Elections but Serious Neighborhood Strains

 The International Crisis Group published on 11 December 2024 an analysis titled "Somaliland's Peaceful Handover Withstands Neighbourhood Strains" by Omar Mahmood.  

Somaliland held presidential elections in mid-November, ending in victory for the opposition and a swift concession by the incumbent.  While the peaceful transfer of power marked a welcome outcome, the run-up to the vote was far from smooth.  Serious issues also remain involving neighboring Somalia, Ethiopia, and Djibouti.  

Impact on Somalia and Somaliland of Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal

 War on the Rocks published on 24 January 2024 an analysis titled "A Port Deal Puts the Horn of Africa on the Brink" by Caleb Weiss, Bridgeway Foundation, and James Barnett, Hudson Institute.

This analysis focuses on the implications of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on the internal situation in Somalia and Somaliland.  It acknowledges that neither Somalia nor Somaliland has the ability to wage a conventional war against any potential opponent.  The al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab terrorist movement in Somalia and the Somali government oppose the MOU.  Al-Shabaab sees the MOU as a way to mobilize additional support for its goals from the wider Somali population.  The MOU has also upended politics in Somaliland.  

Ethiopia Allegedly Sends Troops into Somaliland

 Ethiopia Insight published on 20 March 2023 a commentary titled "Somaliland and Ethiopia Faceoff over Las Anod Jeopardizes Regional Cooperation."

Somaliland accused Ethiopia of sending troops to the disputed area around Los Anod.  Leaders of Ethiopia's neighboring Somali Region have denied the charge.  

Somaliland: Beyond Clannism

African Arguments posted on 27 February 2023 a commentary titled "Conflict in Somaliland: Beyond the Clannism Convention" by Jamal Abdi, Keele University.

The author argues that clannism does not explain the root causes of the current conflict in Somaliland.  Rather it is best understood through the intersection of economic marginalization and limited state capacity, leading to the erosion of state legitimacy.  

Somaliland and Puntland: Claims to Sool and Sanaag

The Institute for Security Studies published on 4 December 2019 a study titled "Overlapping Claims by Somaliland and Puntland: The Case of Sool and Sanaag" by Omar S. Mahmood.

Over the past two years, tensions over competing claims to Sool and Sanaag regions by self-declared independent Somaliland and the autonomous Puntland State of Somalia have escalated. Local, regional, and national contestations, combined with a failure to make progress at each level, hinder resolution of the dispute. This report assesses the situation in Sool and Sanaag, focusing on the dynamics driving recent developments and options for the future.

Somalia: Puntland's Postponed Elections

The International Crisis Group (ICG) published on 19 December 2013 a policy brief titled "Somalia: Puntland's Punted Polls." It analyzes the decision to cancel local elections last July, arguing this underscores the challenges of reconciling competing clan interests with a democratic constitution. The ICG concluded that the Puntland experience shows that donors and other international actors need to be heedful of local political realities, including support of elites, robustness of institutions and viability of electoral districts.

New report on Somaliland

The Brenthurst Foundation in South Africa just released a good report on “The Consequences of Somaliland’s International (Non) Recognition” (PDF)

While generally sympathetic to recognition, it is a balanced analysis that looks at the pros and cons.

I believe it understates the problem surrounding Puntland’s claims to Sool and the eastern part of Sanaag regions in Somaliland. It concludes that “recognition would illustrate that African borders, far from being sources of insecurity, CAN [my emphasis] be a source of stability and enhanced state capacity.”

It CAN also have the opposite impact.