The Sentry published in June 2025 an extensive report titled "Power and Plunder: The Eritrean Defense Forces Intervention in Tigray."
This account documents Eritrean Defense Force support for the Ethiopian National Defense Force in their joint war to topple the Tigrayan Defense Force in Tigray Region from late 2020 until the signing of the Pretoria Agreement in 2022. The study concludes that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has emerged as the clear winner of the post-conflict status quo.
The Reporter published on 28 June 2025 a commentary titled "Tigray Between Two Fires: Ethiopia's Red Sea Ambitions, Eritrea's Proxy Games and the TPLF's Last Stand" by Mulat Gebreslassie, independent consultant and attorney.
The continued presence of Eritrean troops in Tigrayan border areas has become a flashpoint with Ethiopia. The Eritrean troops have been there since Asmara supported the Ethiopian federal government in its war with Tigray Region that ended in 2022. Now there are concerns that Eritrea is engaging with a faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front and the Tigray Defense Forces, using them as proxies to counter the Ethiopian federal government, which seeks an outlet through Eritrea to the Red Sea. Consequently, tension is rising between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The Emirates Policy Center published on 15 May 2025 an analysis titled "Reorganizing Power in Tigray Region: Likely Implications for Peace and Conflict Dynamics in Ethiopia."
The analysis concludes that the toughest challenge for Tigray's interim administration is its ability to develop a unified and coherent strategy to advance an ideological assessment and internal reform of the Tigray People's Liberation Front. Successfully aligning political objectives with the central priorities of the Ethiopian state and the urgent needs of the Tigrayan people will be critical for long-term stability.
Ethiopia Insight published on 14 May 2025 a commentary titled "Tigray's Hijacked Transition" by Weldeslassie Hailai Abera, University of KwaZulu-Natal.
The author argues that a faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael led an "illegitimate power grab" of the Tigray People's Liberation Front. He concludes that Tigray's future depends on a fundamental shift: bringing the Tigray Defense Forces under civilian control, dismantling ethnic-based patronage, and empowering youth and the diaspora.
Ethiopia Insight published on 10 April 2025 a commentary titled "The Battle for Tigray" by Ella Atsbeha, a Tigrayan writer based outside the region.
The author revisits the war in Tigray, the Pretoria Agreement, and recent political developments in Tigray Region and within the TPLF. He argues that the TPLF's resurgence in Tigray reduces the prospect of war with Eritrea.
The Economist published on 20 March 2025 an article titled "A Coup Attempt in Tigray Raises Tensions in the Horn."
A coup attempt by Debretsion Gebremichael and elements of the Tigray Defense Forces in early March triggered a political crisis in Tigray Region. Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki is reportedly arming the Ethiopian opposition and aligning with the Tigray coup plotters.
Ethiopia Insight published on 21 March 2025 a commentary titled "Abiy and Isaias Fight over Tigray" by Ermias Gebregziabher, who now resides in the United States.
Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki hoped the war in Tigray would weaken the Tigray People's Liberation Front and neutralize the Ethiopian National Defense Forces. The end of the conflict in Tigray has divided the previous unity of Tigrayans and reportedly resulted in both Eritrea and the government in Addis Ababa aligning with one of the Tigrayan factions. It also raises the possibility of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Population Health Metrics published on 14 March 2025 a study titled "Civilian Death and Injury from Airstrikes: Evidence from the War in Tigray, Ethiopia" by Mulugeta Gebregziabher et al.
The study assessed the impact of airstrikes on civilians from June 2021 until November 2022 during the war between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front. A total of 1,143 casualties from airstrikes were reported from six zones and 24 districts of Tigray Region. Almost a third of the victims were children under the age of 18 and 45 percent of the casualties were female.
The International Crisis Group posted on 14 March 2025 a 37-minute podcast titled "Ethiopia and Eritrea, On a Collision Course" with Alan Boswell and Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland.
They discuss the rising tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the political crisis in Tigray Region, and whether another war can be averted. A split in the once united Tigray People's Liberation Front with one faction potentially willing to side with Eritrea and the other with Abiy Ahmed's central government is the proximate cause of the current crisis.
What happens in Tigray Region, which has a long border with Eritrea, will likely determine whether conflict breaks out between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The best way to deescalate the crisis is to encourage Tigrayan reconciliation.
AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 13 March 2025 an analysis titled "Looming Civil War in Africa."
A battle for legitimacy between the Tigray People's Liberation Movement (TPLF) and the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) threatens to ignite a war in Tigray Region that could escalate into a proxy or regional war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Foreign Policy published on 12 March 2025 an analysis titled "Stop the Next Ethiopia-Eritrea War Before It Begins" by Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos.
The deterioration of the political and security situation in Ethiopia's Tigray Region is dry tinder waiting for a match that could ignite a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of undermining the Pretoria Agreement that ended the war in Tigray Region and of supporting insurgent groups elsewhere in Ethiopia. Asmara perceives landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the Red Sea as a casus belli and forerunner for efforts to return Eritrea to Ethiopian sovereignty.
Ethiopia Insight published on 12 March 2025 a commentary titled "Peace through Diplomacy Desperately Needed in the Horn" by Mulugeta Gebregziabher, Medical University of South Carolina.
The author argues that the Horn of Africa is on the verge of another conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The European Union and the United States must act decisively to discourage incendiary rhetoric from all sides before the region sinks further into crisis.
Reuters published on 18 October 2024 an investigative report titled "UN Food Agency Failed to Act as U.S. Aid Was Looted in Ethiopia" by Giulia Paravicini, Steve Stecklow, and Tiksa Negeri.
Thousands of tons of food aid provided by USAID to the World Food Program (WFP) were diverted from hungry Ethiopian civilians in Tigray Region in 2023 to the Ethiopian military, Eritrean soldiers, and Tigrayan forces. The authors allege that WFP staff chose to ignore the illegal diversions. As a result, USAID temporarily shut down the assistance program.
The Washington-based New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy published in June 2024 a 120-page report titled "Genocide in Tigray: Serious Breaches of International Law in the Tigray Conflict, Ethiopia, and Paths to Accountability." The Washington Institute for Education and Research funds the New Lines Institute whose president and founder is Ahmed Alwani, a businessman based in northern Virginia.
The document concludes there are multiple, widespread and credible independent reports that the conduct throughout Ethiopia of the federal Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) on behalf of Ethiopia, Amhara regional armed forces and/or Fano militia and loyal groups, the Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF), as well as the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), Tigray Defence Forces (TPLF) and those loyal to them, violated international humanitarian law and international human rights law.
There is reasonable basis to believe that such violations amount to the commission of war crimes and/or crimes against humanity. The report also concludes there is a reasonable basis to believe that members of the ENDF, the Amhara Special Forces, and the EDF committed genocide against Tigrayans.
Ethiopia Insight published on 30 January 2024 a commentary titled "Four Years Later, Tigray Is Unrecognizable" by an anonymous author.
This report is based on a visit by an Ethiopian to his/her home in Tigray Region during October 2023. The civil service barely functions. Ethnic relations are complicated and often tense. Grieving remains widespread and unemployment is high.
Ethiopia Insight published on 6 March 2023 a commentary titled "TPLF Cannot Be Allowed to Monopolize Tigray's Interim Government" by Emnet Negash, Getachew Gebrekiros Temare, and Gebrehiwot Hadush Abera.
Tigray Region is now confronted with many internal challenges including power sharing with non-TPLF groups. The authors urge that the TPLF be more willing to create an inclusive interim government.
African Arguments posted on 8 February 2023 a commentary titled "Is the Pretoria Peace Deal the Beginning of the End of the TPLF?" by Mohamed Kheir Omer, former member of the Eritrean Liberation Front based in Norway.
The author argues that as Tigray engages in collective soul searching, there are calls for an all-inclusive interim administration not dominated by the TPLF. Some Tigrayans are asking hard questions about how Tigray got in the difficult situation that it now finds itself.
The International Peace Institute's Global Observatory published on 7 February 2023 an analysis titled "After Agreement in Ethiopia's Tigray Region, What Stands in the Way of Lasting Peace?" by Hilary Matfes and Anne Lauder, University of Denver.
The authors suggest there is much that stands in the way of lasting peace in the region, including a multitude of armed actors, the continuing presence of Eritrean forces, divisions within the TPLF, accountability for atrocities, rising tension in Oromia, and the need to deal with a severe drought in parts of Ethiopia.
Ethiopia Insight published on 26 January 2023 a commentary titled "With Tigray At a Crossroads, Tigrayans Need to Talk" by an anonymous author.
The author urges that the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and all Tigray stakeholders engage in open and genuine dialogue to prepare a roadmap that charts Tigray Region's political, social, and economic future. While the TPLF has a central role in this effort, it must end the practice of "my way or the highway" and accept pluralistic politics.
Reuters published on 10 January 2023 an article titled "Tigray Forces Begin Handing over Heavy Weapons to Ethiopian Army" by Dawit Endeshaw.
Tigray Defense Forces have begun the disarmament process in accordance with the peace agreement and are turning over heavy weapons to central government forces.
