The Voice of America ran during the first half of April 2013 three Chinese-language video clips of nine to ten minutes each about China-Africa-US relations. Each one contains some of my comments with a voice over in Chinese.
Click here, here and here to access each video program.
Showing posts with label Voice of America. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Voice of America. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
Monday, October 1, 2012
Political Transition in Ethiopia and Somalia
Carol Castiel of the Voice of America's Encounter program asked Jennifer Cooke, head of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, and I to participate in a half-hour discussion of the political transition underway in Ethiopia and Somalia.
Click here to access the program, then click Encounter for 28 September 2012.
Click here to access the program, then click Encounter for 28 September 2012.
Saturday, September 29, 2012
VOA Interviews Ethiopia's Prime Minister
The Voice of America's Peter Heinlein interviewed Ethiopia's new Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, in New York on 27 September 2012. This was Hailemariam's first interview since taking office.
The 39-minute interview covers Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea, United States, China and European social democratic political parties. Hailemariam comments on the Nile water issue, the role of the EPRDF, his approach towards press freedom and opposition political parties, Sudan and South Sudan, and whether he will be a candidate for prime minister in 2015. He said he is willing to work with the Amharic service of the Voice of America so long as it ends its partisan approach to Ethiopia.
Click here to listen to the audio of the interview.
Click here to read Peter Heinlein's summary of the interview.
The 39-minute interview covers Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea, United States, China and European social democratic political parties. Hailemariam comments on the Nile water issue, the role of the EPRDF, his approach towards press freedom and opposition political parties, Sudan and South Sudan, and whether he will be a candidate for prime minister in 2015. He said he is willing to work with the Amharic service of the Voice of America so long as it ends its partisan approach to Ethiopia.
Click here to listen to the audio of the interview.
Click here to read Peter Heinlein's summary of the interview.
Friday, June 22, 2012
VOA Somali Survey
The Voice of America Somali Service conducted a survey over a three month period that polled more than 3,000 Somalis in Somalia, Somaliland, and at the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya. The results were fascinating.
Eighty-seven percent of the Somalis agreed strongly that Sharia law should be applied as a civil and criminal code throughout Somalia. Support for Sharia was strong among men, women and across age groups and geographic regions.
Most Somalis believed that women should be involved in the political process; 77 percent of the women agreed and 58 percent of the men agreed. Surprisingly, however, more than a third of the Somalis surveyed opposed ANY role for women in politics.
On 10 July 2012, 825 members selected from traditional elders, intellectual and civil society groups plan to adopt a provisional constitution. A majority of Somalis surveyed--61 percent--said it should be approved through a national referendum, although they acknowledged security conditions and lack of logistical capacity make that impossible now.
Eighty-three percent of those polled supported a strong central government as opposed to 13 percent who wanted a weak central government. In Mogadishu 92 percent favored a strong central government compared to 77 percent in Puntland and 83 percent in Somaliland.
Click here to read the article.
Eighty-seven percent of the Somalis agreed strongly that Sharia law should be applied as a civil and criminal code throughout Somalia. Support for Sharia was strong among men, women and across age groups and geographic regions.
Most Somalis believed that women should be involved in the political process; 77 percent of the women agreed and 58 percent of the men agreed. Surprisingly, however, more than a third of the Somalis surveyed opposed ANY role for women in politics.
On 10 July 2012, 825 members selected from traditional elders, intellectual and civil society groups plan to adopt a provisional constitution. A majority of Somalis surveyed--61 percent--said it should be approved through a national referendum, although they acknowledged security conditions and lack of logistical capacity make that impossible now.
Eighty-three percent of those polled supported a strong central government as opposed to 13 percent who wanted a weak central government. In Mogadishu 92 percent favored a strong central government compared to 77 percent in Puntland and 83 percent in Somaliland.
Click here to read the article.
Friday, January 20, 2012
VOA Interview on Al-Shabaab
VOA's Encounter program interviewed Peter Pham, Director of the Ansari Africa Center at the Atlantic Council in Washington, and me on Boko Haram in Nigeria and al-Shabaab in Somalia. The program aired on January 21. Dr. Pham covered Boko Haram while I discussed al-Shabaab. You can listen to the program here.
In response to questions from Carol Castiel, who moderates Encounter, I suggested that while al-Shabaab has been weakened, it still remains strong enough to withstand the combined opposition of African Union forces (AMISOM) in Mogadishu, Kenyan forces in the southern most part of Somalia, Ethiopian troops who recently returned to the area around Beletweyne in central Somalia near the Ethiopian border and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces. Al-Shabaab is its own worst enemy and will eventually fail but has the capacity to hold substantial parts of south and central Somalia for several years. The TFG has not yet become a viable alternative.
The Kenyans have not articulated a coherent plan for countering al-Shabaab. Judging by public statements, their goals change from week to week. In any event, Kenyan forces cannot afford to remain indefinitely in Somalia. I doubt that Ethiopia plans to repeat its mistake of late 2006 by moving deeply into Somalia. It probably will secure the area around Beletweyne, turn it over to friendly Somali forces and then leave. AMISOM can hold Mogadishu but does not have and will not obtain the capacity to move much beyond Mogadishu. If this analysis is correct, the result is a stalemate although I believe al-Shabaab will continue to make serious tactical mistakes and become even weaker over time.
When asked about the role of American drones in the conflict, I noted that the United States operates drones from Arba Minch in Ethiopia, from the Seychelles where drones were established initially to counter Somali piracy and probably from Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa in Djibouti. Nearly all of the drone flights are used to collect intelligence, which is a perfectly legitimate use for them. They should not, however, become the default option for "removing people." While they are more precise than Cruise missiles, they also come with downsides and should only be used judiciously in Somalia.
I suggested there may be some lessons from Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco for those parts of Sub-Saharan Africa that are predominantly Muslim or have large Muslim minorities. While I do not believe organizations like Boko Haram, al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb are the wave of the future, political Islam (for lack of a better term) has reasserted itself in North Africa in free and fair elections and, if given the chance, would probably obtain a major following in certain other areas of Africa such as Somalia.
In response to questions from Carol Castiel, who moderates Encounter, I suggested that while al-Shabaab has been weakened, it still remains strong enough to withstand the combined opposition of African Union forces (AMISOM) in Mogadishu, Kenyan forces in the southern most part of Somalia, Ethiopian troops who recently returned to the area around Beletweyne in central Somalia near the Ethiopian border and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces. Al-Shabaab is its own worst enemy and will eventually fail but has the capacity to hold substantial parts of south and central Somalia for several years. The TFG has not yet become a viable alternative.
The Kenyans have not articulated a coherent plan for countering al-Shabaab. Judging by public statements, their goals change from week to week. In any event, Kenyan forces cannot afford to remain indefinitely in Somalia. I doubt that Ethiopia plans to repeat its mistake of late 2006 by moving deeply into Somalia. It probably will secure the area around Beletweyne, turn it over to friendly Somali forces and then leave. AMISOM can hold Mogadishu but does not have and will not obtain the capacity to move much beyond Mogadishu. If this analysis is correct, the result is a stalemate although I believe al-Shabaab will continue to make serious tactical mistakes and become even weaker over time.
When asked about the role of American drones in the conflict, I noted that the United States operates drones from Arba Minch in Ethiopia, from the Seychelles where drones were established initially to counter Somali piracy and probably from Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa in Djibouti. Nearly all of the drone flights are used to collect intelligence, which is a perfectly legitimate use for them. They should not, however, become the default option for "removing people." While they are more precise than Cruise missiles, they also come with downsides and should only be used judiciously in Somalia.
I suggested there may be some lessons from Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco for those parts of Sub-Saharan Africa that are predominantly Muslim or have large Muslim minorities. While I do not believe organizations like Boko Haram, al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb are the wave of the future, political Islam (for lack of a better term) has reasserted itself in North Africa in free and fair elections and, if given the chance, would probably obtain a major following in certain other areas of Africa such as Somalia.
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