Foreign Affairs published on 20 September 2023 an article titled "Why the New Cold War Will Split Africa" by Brett L. Carter.
The second cold war is intensifying Africa's democratic recession. Beijing and its junior partner Russia are strengthening Africa's dictatorships and facilitating backsliding in democracies. Although the short-term dynamics favor China and Russia as partners for African countries, the long-term dynamics favor the United States.
Network 20/20, an independent nonprofit organization, ran on 19 September 2023 a one hour discussion titled "Great Power Rivalry in Africa: Who Is Winning?" with Catrina Doxsee, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Joseph Sany, US Institute of Peace, and me.
This is a wide ranging discussion on the competing engagement and policies of the United States, China, Russia, and France in Africa with a focus on recent developments.
The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 22 February 2023 a book review titled "Intervening to Undermine Democracy in Africa: Russia's Playbook for Influence" by Joseph Siegle.
This is a review of Samuel Ramani's timely book titled Russia in Africa: Resurgent Great Power or Bellicose Pretender. Russia's strategy in Africa is to protect repressive actors so they can deploy coercion without hindrance and so retain power.
The South African Journal of International Affairs latest issue published "Russia in Africa: Who Is Courting Whom?" by Steven Gruzd, Samuel Ramani, and Cayley Clifford.
This is an introductory essay to an excellent special issue of the journal, which focuses on Russia's relations with Africa. The authors argue that Russia is resurgent in Africa, but Moscow is more like a "virtual great power" than a genuine challenger to European, American, and Chinese influence.
The authors conclude that Russia is a neo-colonial power dressed in anti-colonial clothes. They do not definitively answer the question raised in the title of the issue except to say that "Moscow is wooing African elites to serve its interests; African states are trying to play off Moscow, Washington, Brussels and Beijing for maximum advantage."
Foreign Policy published on 10 August 2022 a commentary titled "A Little Great-Power Competition Is Healthy for Africa" by Howard W. French.
Most African states still prefer a democratic form of government. In its competition with China and others for influence in Africa, the United States needs to focus on improving governance and building capacity on the continent.
Foreign Policy published on 30 May 2022 a commentary titled "Putin's World Order Would Be Devastating for Africa" by Joseph Siegle and Jeffrey Smith.
Putin is taking a sledgehammer to the foundation of the once stable post-World War II order by normalizing geographic expansionism. Would be tsars in Africa are watching to see if Putin gets away with this brazen overreach and violation of established borders.
The Guardian published on 28 March 2022 an article titled "Cold War Echoes as African Leaders Resist Criticising Putin's War" by Jason Burke.
This article focuses on African leaders--about half of the total--who have refrained from criticizing Putin's war against Ukraine. It concludes that most of the African countries that voted in the UN General Assembly to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine are democracies and Western allies while most that abstained are authoritarian or hybrid regimes.
Stanford University's conservative Hoover Institution published on 21 March 2022 a paper titled "China's Sharp Power in Africa: A Handbook for Building National Resilience" by Glenn Tiffert and Oliver McPherson-Smith.
The handbook aims to raise awareness of how China is exercising sharp power in sub-Saharan Africa and to encourage governments and civil society across the region to unite in a posture of vigilance. It documents the unequal and asymmetric character of China's relationship with Africa and how it is empowering illiberal forces on the continent, mortgaging Africa's future and making the world more congenial for autocracy. The authors conclude that the policy goal is not to exclude China from Africa, but rather to shift its engagements there onto a more equitable footing and to equip Africans to make wiser, more informed choices among all the global partners available to them.
The Conversation posted on 8 March 2022 a commentary titled "Russia-Ukraine War: Decoding How African Countries Voted at the UN" by Mahama Tawat, Universite of Montpelier.
The author concluded the 27 African countries that voted for the UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia's war against Ukraine were mostly Western-aligned democracies with a few important exceptions. Most of the 17 countries that abstained are authoritarian or hybrid regimes and some have close military ties with Russia. Functional democracies of Namibia, South Africa, and Senegal were outliers.
