The South China Morning Post published on 10 May 2020 an article titled "Coronavirus: Africa's Debt Problems Must Not Be Used as a Political Football, Experts Say" by Jevans Nyabiage.
The article underscores that African debt is held by a variety of countries, international financial institutions and private banks, not just China.
Showing posts with label coronavirus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label coronavirus. Show all posts
Monday, May 11, 2020
Wednesday, May 6, 2020
African Leaders Call for Debt Relief
Kenya's Daily Nation published on 5 May 2020 an article titled "Debt in Africa: To Forgive and Forget Or to Keep Asking" by Aggrey Mutambo.
African leaders are calling for debt cancellation as Covid-19 damages their economies. Leaders from Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal, and South Africa are among those who have recently made such a request.
African leaders are calling for debt cancellation as Covid-19 damages their economies. Leaders from Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal, and South Africa are among those who have recently made such a request.
Friday, May 1, 2020
Has China's Bet on Africa Failed?
Nikkei Asian Review published on 1 May 2020 a commentary titled "China's Expensive Bet on Africa Has Failed" by Minxin Pei, Claremont McKenna College.
The author concludes that because of pressure to cancel debt and investments that will fail, China must realize that it is unlikely to recover most of its sunken investments or loans because of the economic impact of coronavirus on Africa.
Comment: While the coronavirus is challenging economies globally, Minxin Pei's analysis strikes me as excessively negative.
The author concludes that because of pressure to cancel debt and investments that will fail, China must realize that it is unlikely to recover most of its sunken investments or loans because of the economic impact of coronavirus on Africa.
Comment: While the coronavirus is challenging economies globally, Minxin Pei's analysis strikes me as excessively negative.
Thursday, April 30, 2020
Ethiopian Prime Minister Calls for Cancellation of Poor Country Debt
The New York Times published on 30 April 2020 a commentary titled "Why the Global Debt of Poor Nations Must Be Canceled" by Abiy Ahmed.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said the offer by the Group of 20 countries to suspend debt repayments by the world's lowest income countries is a step in the right direction, but it needs to be more ambitious. He called on creditor nations to extend the debt repayment moratorium until the coronavirus is over or to cancel the debt altogether.
Comment: While Prime Minister Abiy is correct that creditor nations need to be as flexible as possible in dealing with the debt crisis facing the poorest nations, seventeen countries in Africa, including Ethiopia, were identified by the International Monetary Fund as in debt distress or at high risk of debt distress BEFORE COVID-19 was even known to exist. To some degree, Prime Minister Abiy's request sounds like a get out of jail free card.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said the offer by the Group of 20 countries to suspend debt repayments by the world's lowest income countries is a step in the right direction, but it needs to be more ambitious. He called on creditor nations to extend the debt repayment moratorium until the coronavirus is over or to cancel the debt altogether.
Comment: While Prime Minister Abiy is correct that creditor nations need to be as flexible as possible in dealing with the debt crisis facing the poorest nations, seventeen countries in Africa, including Ethiopia, were identified by the International Monetary Fund as in debt distress or at high risk of debt distress BEFORE COVID-19 was even known to exist. To some degree, Prime Minister Abiy's request sounds like a get out of jail free card.
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
Is the Coronavirus a Political Opportunity for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed?
Ethiopia Insight posted on 28 April 2020 a commentary titled "Yes, the Pandemic Does Present a Political Opportunity--for Abiy" by Rene Lefort.
The author argues that the major political forces in Ethiopia today are anti-democratic because they see democracy as their exclusive domain rather than a process that involves all of society. The coronavirus has sidelined political debate, which Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party should be able to take advantage of for political purposes.
The author argues that the major political forces in Ethiopia today are anti-democratic because they see democracy as their exclusive domain rather than a process that involves all of society. The coronavirus has sidelined political debate, which Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party should be able to take advantage of for political purposes.
Podcast on China and the Red Sea Region
The US Institute of Peace (USIP) ran a one hour podcast on 28 April 2020 titled "China's Impact on Conflict Dynamics in the Red Sea Arena."
Several persons who helped produce the report, which is available on the USIP website and referred to below on this blog, spoke briefly during the podcast and responded to questions from the on-line audience at the end.
Several persons who helped produce the report, which is available on the USIP website and referred to below on this blog, spoke briefly during the podcast and responded to questions from the on-line audience at the end.
Friday, April 24, 2020
China-Egypt Ties Strong in Spite of Anti-China Sentiment
Al-Monitor published on 23 April 2020 an article titled "Cairo-Beijing Ties Strong Amid Surge of Anti-China Sentiment in Egypt" by Shahira Amin, Cairo-based journalist.
The author reports a surge in anti-China sentiment in Egypt since the outbreak of the coronavirus. But Chinese investment in Egypt has reached nearly $7 billion and China is Egypt's largest trading partner. President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, who has visited China six times since 2014, perceives China as a political and security superpower. Egypt is concerned about China's financial support for Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, which Egypt believes threatens its supply of water from the Nile.
The author reports a surge in anti-China sentiment in Egypt since the outbreak of the coronavirus. But Chinese investment in Egypt has reached nearly $7 billion and China is Egypt's largest trading partner. President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, who has visited China six times since 2014, perceives China as a political and security superpower. Egypt is concerned about China's financial support for Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, which Egypt believes threatens its supply of water from the Nile.
Thursday, April 23, 2020
China's Coronavirus Diplomacy in Africa Threatened
The Conversation posted on 17 April 2020 a commentary titled "Mistreatment of Africans in Guangzhou Threatens China's Coronavirus Diplomacy" by Hangwei Li, PhD candidate at the University of London.
The author suggests that because China has devoted so little effort to educate the Chinese public against racism there have been outbreaks of discrimination in places like Guangzhou and consequent challenges to China's attempts to improve relations with Africa post-coronavirus.
The author suggests that because China has devoted so little effort to educate the Chinese public against racism there have been outbreaks of discrimination in places like Guangzhou and consequent challenges to China's attempts to improve relations with Africa post-coronavirus.
Friday, April 17, 2020
Debt and Coronavirus Merge in China-Africa Relationship
Politico posted on 16 April 2020 a commentary titled "Coronavirus Ends China's Honeymoon in Africa" by Simon Marks.
This commentary discusses the intersection of coronavirus in Africa and African debt owed to China, suggesting the combination poses a major challenge for China.
This commentary discusses the intersection of coronavirus in Africa and African debt owed to China, suggesting the combination poses a major challenge for China.
Wednesday, April 15, 2020
African Debt, China, and Coronavirus
The Diplomat posted on 15 April 2020 an analysis titled "Chinese Debt Relief: Fact and Fiction" by Deborah Brautigam, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
The author discusses the facts and fiction of China's debt management in troubled times. She identifies three myths:
--China frequently cancels debt.
--Chinese debt negotiations are easy.
--China will seize strategic assets in lieu of loan payments.
The author discusses the facts and fiction of China's debt management in troubled times. She identifies three myths:
--China frequently cancels debt.
--Chinese debt negotiations are easy.
--China will seize strategic assets in lieu of loan payments.
Monday, April 6, 2020
Kenya-Somalia Indian Ocean Boundary Dispute
World Politics Review published on 6 April 2020 an analysis titled "Kenya and Somalia's Long-Simmering Territorial Dispute Threatens to Boil Over" by Julian Hattem.
High level diplomacy to solve the Indian Ocean boundary dispute between Somalia and Kenya has been halted by the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, the situation is ripe for small scale skirmishes and shows of force by both sides.
High level diplomacy to solve the Indian Ocean boundary dispute between Somalia and Kenya has been halted by the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, the situation is ripe for small scale skirmishes and shows of force by both sides.
Monday, March 30, 2020
US and China Combat Coronavirus in Africa
The US State Department posted a press release on 27 March 2020 titled "The United States Is Leading the Humanitarian and Health Assistance Response to COVID-19."
As China ramps up its public relations campaign to demonstrate how it is supporting countries to deal with coronavirus, the United States is trying to make clear that it is providing more aid to combat coronavirus than any other country (read China). The United States has provided assistance to the following countries in Africa: Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Morocco, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Tunisia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. It is providing additional health assistance to the Central African Republic, DRC, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan.
Unfortunately, China's smaller effort to aid countries in Africa has resulted in far more effective messaging than that from the United States.
As China ramps up its public relations campaign to demonstrate how it is supporting countries to deal with coronavirus, the United States is trying to make clear that it is providing more aid to combat coronavirus than any other country (read China). The United States has provided assistance to the following countries in Africa: Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Morocco, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Tunisia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. It is providing additional health assistance to the Central African Republic, DRC, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan.
Unfortunately, China's smaller effort to aid countries in Africa has resulted in far more effective messaging than that from the United States.
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Impact of China's Slowdown on African Economies
The Diplomat published on 19 March 2020 an analysis titled "China's Coronavirus Slowdown: Which African Economies Will Be Hit Hardest?" by Hannah Ryder and Angela Benefo, Development Reimagined.
COVID-19 could lead to a sharp increase in African poverty due to a drop in commodity prices and a shortage of cheap consumer goods produced in China. There will be both demand-side and supply-side shocks to African economies as a result of the economic slowdown in China.
COVID-19 could lead to a sharp increase in African poverty due to a drop in commodity prices and a shortage of cheap consumer goods produced in China. There will be both demand-side and supply-side shocks to African economies as a result of the economic slowdown in China.
Friday, March 20, 2020
Somalia Totally Unprepared for Coronavirus
AlJazeera posted on 19 March 2020 an article titled "Coronavirus Pandemic: Experts Say Somalia Risk Greater than China" by Hamza Mohamed.
Somalia does not have a single coronavirus testing kit and no information on the pandemic is coming from those parts of the country controlled by al-Shabaab.
Somalia does not have a single coronavirus testing kit and no information on the pandemic is coming from those parts of the country controlled by al-Shabaab.
Tuesday, March 17, 2020
Angola: Falling Oil Prices Could Lead to Debt Default
CL Brief, a business consultancy based in Macau, posted on 16 March 2020 an article titled "Analysis: Angolan Economy Set for Covid-19 Blow."
The sharp drop in oil prices caused by economic slowdowns following the outbreak of Covid-19 has sharply impacted Angola, which relies on oil exports, mainly to China. Angola has borrowed $21.4 billion from the China Development Bank and China Exim Bank, which it repays by sending oil to China at market price. If oil remains at $33 a barrel, Angola could face a default on its debt.
The sharp drop in oil prices caused by economic slowdowns following the outbreak of Covid-19 has sharply impacted Angola, which relies on oil exports, mainly to China. Angola has borrowed $21.4 billion from the China Development Bank and China Exim Bank, which it repays by sending oil to China at market price. If oil remains at $33 a barrel, Angola could face a default on its debt.
Monday, March 16, 2020
Coronavirus Takes Toll on South Africa's Economy
The South African Sunday Times published on 15 March 2020 an article titled "South Africa's Mining, Tourism Brace for Virus Buffeting."
Coronavirus and the resulting economic downturn in China are having a negative impact on trade and tourism with South Africa. President Cyril Ramaphosa said the virus will have "a huge impact" on South Africa's economy, which was already precarious.
Coronavirus and the resulting economic downturn in China are having a negative impact on trade and tourism with South Africa. President Cyril Ramaphosa said the virus will have "a huge impact" on South Africa's economy, which was already precarious.
Friday, March 13, 2020
Public Health Impact of Coronavirus on Africa
The Lancet published on 14 March 2020 an excellent, if technical, analysis titled "Preparedness and Vulnerability of African Countries against Importations of COVID-19: A Modelling Study" by a team of experts.
The study evaluates the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of coronavirus. Countries with the highest importation risk (Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya) have variable capacity and high vulnerability.
The study evaluates the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of coronavirus. Countries with the highest importation risk (Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya) have variable capacity and high vulnerability.
Thursday, March 12, 2020
Impact of Coronavirus on African Economies
Baker McKenzie published on 10 March 2020 an analysis titled "The Impact of COVID-19 on Key African Sectors."
Demand for Africa's raw materials and commodities in China has declined and Africa's access to industrial components and manufactured goods from the region has been hampered. This is causing further uncertainty in a continent already grappling with widespread geopolitical and economic instability.
Demand for Africa's raw materials and commodities in China has declined and Africa's access to industrial components and manufactured goods from the region has been hampered. This is causing further uncertainty in a continent already grappling with widespread geopolitical and economic instability.
Friday, March 6, 2020
Coronavirus Poses Challenge for China in Africa
The National Interest published on 2 March 2020 an article titled "The Coronavirus Threatens Africans and China's Hold on Africa" by Ahmed Charai, a Moroccan publisher.
The author argues that there are probably far more coronavirus cases in Africa than are being reported, largely because most African health care systems are not able to do sufficient testing. He also believes that coronavirus could disrupt many of China's trade and investment relationships across Africa.
The author argues that there are probably far more coronavirus cases in Africa than are being reported, largely because most African health care systems are not able to do sufficient testing. He also believes that coronavirus could disrupt many of China's trade and investment relationships across Africa.
Monday, March 2, 2020
Coronavirus Slows China's Demand for African Oil
Bloomberg published on 28 February 2020 an article titled "China to Take a Third Less West African Oil as Virus Hits Demand" by Bill Lehane.
The volume of crude oil imported by China from West Africa during March is set to drop by at least ten million barrels as demand decreased due to coronavirus. This would be China's lowest monthly amount of imported oil from the region since at least January 2012.
The volume of crude oil imported by China from West Africa during March is set to drop by at least ten million barrels as demand decreased due to coronavirus. This would be China's lowest monthly amount of imported oil from the region since at least January 2012.
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