How Will China Protect Its Interests in Africa?

 War on the Rocks published on 25 October 2024 a commentary titled "Will China Intervene Directly to Protect Its Investments in Africa?" by Jonathan Ping, Bond University Australia, and Joel Odota, researcher on China-Africa.

China's increased focus on security raises questions about its longstanding policy of non-interference in African states' internal affairs.  In areas of localized instability that threaten Chinese interests, China may have to resort to direct military involvement.  The authors suggest China is pursuing an "increasingly neocolonial approach" that "may ultimately undermine its non-interference policy."

Podcast on Africa and US Elections

 This is a one hour and 15-minute Beyond Africa podcast with me hosted by Bernard Ngalim.  The major issues discussed are the impact of the upcoming election in the United States on Africa policy, Project 2025 and Africa, trade, aid, investment, and the role of the U.S. private sector.  

Can Russia Save Niger? Not Likely

 The Associated Press published on 25 July 2024 an article titled "A Year Has Passed Since Niger's Dramatic Coup.  Life Has Become More Dangerous and Desperate" by Chinedu Asadu and Baba Ahmed.

In the year following the military coup in Niger and the overthrow of civilian President Mohamed Bazoum, extremist attacks have increased by five times and the situation is becoming more difficult for the Nigerien people.  Western aid has dried up following expulsion of French and American troops from the country.  Niger's new alliance with Russia does not appear to be adequate to address its economic and security challenges.  

US-Niger Relations: Countering Russia

 War on the Rocks published on 3 June 2024 a commentary titled "Why Washington Failed in Niger" by Nathaniel Powell, Oxford Analytica.

Some 1,000 U.S. troops will complete their pullout from Niger at the request of the Nigerien government by 15 September.  A small number of Russian troops has arrived as replacements for the U.S. troops.  Rather than prioritizing security assistance in Africa, the author argues the United States would be better advised to fill shortfalls in humanitarian funding and providing better access to U.S. markets for the continent's agriculture.

Russian Private Military Companies in Africa

 The Foreign Policy Research Institue published on 30 May 2024 a study titled "Africa Faces the Unintended Consequences of Relying on Russian PMCs" by Christopher Faulkner, Jaclyn Johnson, and Zachary Streicher.

The authors conclude African client states that rely on Russian private military companies (PMCs) such as the Wagner Group and Africa Corps may find they will fail to produce desired security and instead generate or exacerbate grievances within the security sector.  

US Sanctions on Sudan

 The New York Times published on 1 June 2023 an article titled "U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Warring Sudanese Factions" by Helene Cooper and Declan Walsh.

This is a good summary of the most recent sanctions imposed on Sudanese companies and individuals by the United States and earlier sanctions following the military coup in 2021,

Sudan: Is Military Government Peace Proposal Sincere or a Ploy?

 The International Crisis Group published on 12 August 2022 an analysis titled "A Breakthrough in Sudan's Impasse?" by Alan Boswell.

The author suggests that the offer by Sudan's military government to withdraw from stalled negotiations with civilian political forces, assume only security responsibilities, and then negotiate powers with a new all civilian administration could be a breakthrough in resolving Sudan's governance deadlock.  Or it could be a tactical maneuver to defuse popular unrest, shift blame for the deadlock and Sudan's economic problems to its civilian opponents, and offer a reason to assume total power.  

Russian Gold Smuggling Out of Sudan

 CNN with the assistance of the Dossier Center published on 29 July 2022 an investigative piece titled "Russia Is Plundering Gold in Sudan to Boost Putin's War Effort in Ukraine."

Russia is routinely running gold smuggling flights out of Sudan with the assistance of Khartoum's military leaders.  In return, Russia is supporting Sudan's beleaguered military leadership.  

Is Burkina Faso Ripe for Russia's Wagner Group Mercenaries?

 Foreign Policy published on 27 July 2022 a commentary titled "Burkina Faso Could Be Next for Russia's Wagner Group, U.S. Intel Fears" by Jack Detsch and Amy Mackinnon.  

U.S. intelligence officers suggest that Burkina Faso could be the next target for Russia's mercenary Wagner Group.  Following a military coup d'etat in Ouagadougou, the conditions are ripe for the employment of the Wagner Group.  

African Coups Give China and Russia an Edge in Africa's Sahel

 The Air Force Magazine published on 18 July 2022 an article titled "African Coups Give China and Russia an Edge in Restive Sahel" by Abraham Mahshie.  

Restrictions following coups d'etat on US security cooperation aimed at combatting terrorism in the Sahel region are giving an edge to China and Russia.  These countries turn to China and Russia when the US is not responsive to their security requests.  

Resumption of Riots in Sudan

 The Associated Press published on 30 June 2022 an article titled "Sudan Doctors: 5 People Killed in Mass Anti-coup Rallies" by Noha Elhennawy.

Large anti-government riots in Sudan resulted in 5 killed in the capital area and a major disruption of the internet.  

Sudan: Talks Resume between Military and Civilian Faction

 Al-Monitor published on 16 June 2022 an article titled "US, Saudi Arabia Broker Talks to Break Sudan's Coup Deadlock" by Marc Espanol. 

Sudan's military and one civilian faction met on 10 June for talks designed to break the deadlock on transitioning Sudan to civilian government.  The United States and Saudi Arabia brokered the talks, which are ongoing.  The gap remains wide between the two sides (actually three sides as an important civilian faction is boycotting the talks).  

Sudan Negotiations Begin Inauspiciously

 The Associated Press published on 8 June 2022 an article titled "Talks to End Sudan Crisis Begin as Anti-coup Groups Boycott" by Samy Magdy.

Talks are underway in Sudan to end the differences between the military, which controls the government, and civilians, who are pressing for a transition to democratic, civilian rule.  Unfortunately, the Forces for Freedom and Change are boycotting the process.  

Russia and China Rise in Africa, West Declines: a Japanese View

 The Sasakawa Peace Foundation published on 10 May 2022 a commentary titled "'Era of Coups' in Africa (Part I): The Emergence of Russia and China Amid the Decline of the West" by Koji Sakane, Japan International Cooperation Agency in Sudan.

The author argues that Russia has made major gains in Africa's security sector while China has done so in the economic sector.  In the meantime, Western influence on the continent declines.  

Critique of International Role in Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 3 May 2022 an analysis titled "How the U.N. and the West Failed Sudan" by Justin Lynch.

The author argues that while Sudan's military and politicias are responsible for the fate of Sudan, the international community's role is a record of the limits of foreign assistance, self-delusion, and negligence.

Donor Countries Face Dilemma in Sudan

 Borgen Magazine published on 22 April 2022 a commentary titled "The Humanitarian Consequences of the Sudanese Coup d'Etat" by Majeed Malhas.  

Donor countries need to continue the tricky process of supplying badly needed humanitarian aid to Sudanese civilians while putting pressure on the military government to accept a democratic transition of power. 

Pro-democracy Protests Resume in Sudan

 The Associated Press published on 6 April 2022 an article titled "Sudanese Take to the Streets in Anti-coup Protests: 1 Killed" by Samy Magdy.

After several weeks of relative quiet in Sudan, pro-democracy protests against the military coup d'etat last October have again broken out in several cities in Sudan.

Call for Targeted Sanctions in Sudan

 Foreign Policy published on 28 February 2022 a commentary titled "Targeted Sanctions Can Help Restore Democracy in Sudan" by Senator Chris Coons and John Prendergast.

The authors argue that the United States should invest in Sudan's resistance committees and other grassroots organizations with technical support and capacity-building resources, and by ensuring they are at the negotiating table during any political processes.  In addition, Washington should implement a modern, comprehensive set of sanctions on leaders of the 25 October 2021 military coup and their financial networks such as the Defense Industries System to disrupt their revenue streams and their grip on power.  

Call for US to Increase Pressure on Sudan's Generals

 World Politics Review published on 2 March 2022 a commentary titled "The U.S. Must Raise the Stakes for Sudan's Coup Leaders" by Michael Wahid Hanna and Murithi Mutiga, both with the International Crisis Group.

The US and its partners should take additional steps to demonstrate that Sudan's generals will face serious consequences unless they work with civilian leaders to put the country back on a credible path to civilian rule.  

Sudan and Russia: Birds of a Feather Flock Together

 Aljazeera published on 23 February 2022 an article titled "Sudan Delegation Heads to Russia Amid Ukraine Crisis."

As Russia invades Ukraine, a delegation of senior Sudanese including the deputy leader of the country's military-led ruling council, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, is headed for Moscow to discuss ways to strengthen cooperation between Sudan and Russia.