China-US Competition in Africa: Who's Winning?

 iStocks posted on You Tube on 15 June 2025 a 23-minute video titled "Africa Is Becoming the New Battleground: US vs China -- Who's Winning?"

There is a full-on competition between the United States and China for influence in Africa.  This is a story of power and leverage between Washington and Beijing.  The engagement models used in Africa by China and the US are very different. Beijing provides loans, construction companies, and often its own labor to build infrastructure projects across the continent.  They are fast and avoid political conditionality but add to African debt.  The US is transactional and wants to make deals by mobilizing the private sector.  But they are slow, and the private sector often has difficulty raising financing. 

For many years the US was the preferred partner of most African countries, but recent polls show that China is now the preferred partner.  Recent US policy decisions affecting Africa have also harmed its reputation as a reliable partner.  In the final analysis, Africans don't want to choose between China and the US, but they want the best deal they can get from both partners and others, including the European Union, Turkey, India, Japan, and South Korea.  

China's Security Engagement in Africa Challenges the West's Approach

 The European Hub for Contemporary China posted on 21 October 2024 a commentary titled "China's Security Engagement with Africa & the 'Global South' Narrative" by Fatoumata Diallo and Maud Deschamps.  

As African countries have grown increasingly disillusioned with Western security engagement, China has progressively assumed a more assertive role in African security, shifting from a norm-taker to a norm-shaper approach.  China's influence presents challenges for the EU's engagement in Africa, necessitating a reassessment of its approach to security cooperation with African nations  

Houthi Attacks Jeopardize Chinese Shipping and Investments in Suez Canal and Red Sea

 Reuters published on 15 January 2024 an article titled "Explainer: Houthi Attacks Expose China's Commercial Stakes in Red Sea" by Joe Cash.

The article identifies significant past and pending Chinese investments in the Suez Canal Zone, pointing out that Iran-supported Houthi attacks deterring commercial shipping from the Red Sea and Suez Canal could frustrate Chinese investors who have committed huge sums to the waterway's development to profit from their safe passage.   

Is Ethiopia Really a Candidate for Joining the BRICS?

 The Conversation published on 11 July 2023 a commentary titled "Ethiopia Wants to Join the BRICS Group of Nations: An Expert Unpacks the Pros and Cons" by Padraig Carmody, Trinty College Dublin.

Brazil, Russia, China, India, and South Africa currently constitute the BRICS.  Ethiopia reportedly is interested in joining.  The author assesses the pros and cons of this unlikely development.  

The Problem With China's Global Civilization Initiative

 President Xi Jinping proposed the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) while delivering a keynote speech at the Communist Party of China (CPC) in Dialogue with World Political Parties High-level Meeting on 15 March.  According to a 17 April commentary in the CPC Global Times, the GCI is "another major public good provided to the world by China after the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative, both put forward by President Xi, in 2021 and 2022, respectively."

The Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, and GCI are effectively Beijing's alternative to the Western "rules-based international order," which China is working to replace.  

The Diplomat published on 1 June 2023 an analysis titled "The Trouble with China's Global Civilization Initiative" by R. Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute.  

The author argues that by promoting the relativism of values and arguing against it, the GCI concept appeals to regimes that desire to do what they wish, from criminality and repression at home to the ruthless invasion of their neighbors under the spurious mantle of legitimate security concerns.  The GCI is rooted in a convenient forgetting of the origins of international law and institutions of global governance, however imperfect they may be.

Protecting Chinese Interests in Sudan

 Think China published on 17 May 2023 a commentary titled "Can China Do More to Protect Its Interests in Sudan?" by Alessandro Arduino.

The author concluded that China is pursuing a "wait and see" approach to the conflict in Sudan and will rely on other countries to take the lead.  

China's Non-Interference Policy in Africa

 The London School of Economics and Political Science published on 11 May 2023 a commentary titled "What to Make of China's  Non-interference Policy in Africa" by Mamoudu Gaziba and Abdou Rahim Lema, both at the University of Montreal.

The authors argue that security challenges in Africa are pushing China to become adaptive to the new security situation on the continent without compromising its traditional position on non-interference.

China Elaborates on Its Global Security Initiative

 President Xi Jinping announced on 21 April 2022 a new Global Security Initiative (GSI) at the Boao Forum for Asia's annual conference in China.  This nebulous initiative raised more questions than it answered about China's "new" security policy.  

On 21 February 2023, China issued "The Global Security Initiative Concept Paper" that provided additional details about the initiative.  Foreign Minister Qin Gang summarized the concept paper by noting it lays out 20 priorities of cooperation for "upholding the UN's role in security governance; promoting coordination and sound interactions among major countries [not identified], facilitating peaceful settlement of hotspot issues through dialogue; tackling traditional and non-traditional security challenges; and strengthening the system and capacity for global security governance."

Comment:  There is relatively little that is "new" in the GSI, although several themes have evolved in the Xi Jinping era.  It mostly brings together long-standing Chinese foreign policy principles such as support for state sovereignty, non-interference in internal affairs, multilateralism, dialogue, and opposition to sanctions.  The concept paper underscores the centrality of Xi Jinping's "community of shared security for mankind" and support for the UN and African Union's peacekeeping mandate, peaceful coexistence, arms control, ASEAN-centered regional security cooperation, Africa-led counter-terrorism operations, UN-led fight against global terrorism, international security governance on artificial intelligence and outer space, global food and energy security, the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, and cooperation to address climate change.

China's goal is clearly to place security issues in forums where China has more influence or has established mechanisms where it has control such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the China-Horn of Africa Peace, Governance and Development Conference.  

Comparing African Perceptions of European and Chinese Systems

 The Friedrich Naumann Foundations published in June 2022 a study titled "The Clash of Systems: African Perspectives of the European Union and China Engagement" by James Shikwati, Nashon Adero, and Josephat Juma.

The study compares African perceptions of European and Chinese systems and operational styles in a wide range of areas.  For example, Africans see China as best in quick decision-making and timely completion of projects.  The EU receives higher marks for supporting private sector growth, soft power activities, and on gender and human rights issues.  

China-led Horn of Africa Peace Conference in Ethiopia

 The 30-minute China in Africa Podcast program for 25 June 2022 was titled "How Did China Do in Its First Horn of Africa Peace Conference?" with Aly Verjee, US Institute of Peace, interviewed by Cobus van Staden.

This two-day conference took place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia under the direction of China's Horn of Africa special envoy, Xue Bing.  Senior government officials represented Horn of Africa countries; there were no non-state actors.

Verjee said that the African governments did not demonstrate a great deal of enthusiasm in having yet another outside mediator involved in Horn of Africa conflicts.  For its part, China's policy of non-interference limits its ability to mediate internal conflicts such as the civil war in Ethiopia.  Verjee described the conference as symbolic rather than having practical results.  There was no specific agenda, and it had no clear impact.  In some ways it looked like a self-promotion event for China.  

Podcast on China-Africa and China-Eurasia

The Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute did a one hour podcast on 27 May 2020 titled "China's Wider Quest for Influence: Africa and Eurasia."

Jacques de Lisle, University of Pennsylvania, moderated the conversation with Josh Eisenman, Notre Dame, Chris Miller, Fletcher School, and me. The wide ranging discussion covered numerous aspects of the China-Africa and China-Eurasia relationship. 

African Support for China's Core Principles

The Spring 2020 issue of Orbis contains an article titled "Evolving Principles and Guiding Concepts: How China Gains African Support for its Core National Interests" by me and Josh Eisenman. This link only offers the abstract. Until I can figure out how to load the sharing mechanism and if you want a PDF copy of the entire article, please send an email to dhshinn@earthlink.net.

Under Xi Jinping, China has packaged its policies using two interrelated guiding concepts, the "Chinese Dream" and "The Community of Shared Future." These concepts represent the conceptual framework that China has created to engage African and other countries as it expands its diplomatic, economic, and security interaction with Africa. Beijing has successfully obtained African support or, at least, acquiescence for its core national interests: Taiwan, Tibet, the mistreatment of Muslim minorities, human rights, South China Sea, and Hong Kong.

China and the Change of Regime in Zimbabwe

China File Conversation published on 27 November 2017 two comments titled "What Does Mugabe's Resignation Mean for China?" by me and Huang Hongxiang, a US-based Chinese journalist.

I argued that China received a head's up on the removal of Robert Mugabe from power and that China will continue to support the new government under Emmerson Mnangagwa. I also suggested that developments such as the removal of Mugabe test the limits of China's non-interference principle.

China's Security Shift in Africa

The European Council on Foreign Relations published in June 2016 a policy brief titled "Into Africa: China's Global Security Shift" by Mathieu Duchatel, Richard Gowan, and Manuel Lafont Rapnouil.

The report concludes that China's new security presence in Africa is a direct result of its increasingly global stance, both in economics and security. China aims to establish itself as a great power that contributes to global security and to protect its interests abroad.

The Evolving China-Africa Security Relationship

The Centre for Chinese Studies at Stellenbosch University invited me to make remarks at a conference focused on the upcoming FOCAC summit to be held in South Africa in December 2015.  The conference took place in Cape Town on 26-27 August 2015.  My remarks covered all issues related to "The Evolving China-Africa Security Relationship."

Chinese Foreign Policy Comes of Age

The New York Times published on 26 March 2015 an op-ed titled "Chinese Foreign Policy Comes of Age" by Andrew Small, German Marshall Fund of the United States.  Small concludes that Beijing, long content to sit on the sidelines of security issues beyond its borders, has finally come to see inaction as an even greater risk.  He also applies this new Chinese approach to recent developments in Africa.

China's Changing Approach to Africa

The Diplomat published on 9 February 2015 a fifteen minute interview titled "China's Changing Approach to Africa" with Deborah Brautigam, director of the China Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies.

The interview focused on evolving Chinese diplomacy in Sudan and South Sudan, China's response to Ebola in West Africa, and the protection of Chinese nationals living in Africa. 

Protecting China's Overseas Interests

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published in June 2014 an analysis titled "Protecting China's Overseas Interests: The Slow Shift away from Non-Interference" by Mathieu Duchatel, Oliver Brauner, and Zhou Hang, all with the China and Global Security Project at SIPRI.

The preface to the report points out that in the post-Cold War era the policy debate within and outside China has focused on humanitarian intervention and the conditions of greater Chinese involvement in collective security and multilateral military operations.  Although this debate continues, as a result of the rise of China to great power status, the key question is increasingly how China will use political influence and military power in support of its national interests overseas.  Africa plays a significant role in this challenge.

You need Adobe Reader to access the document.  If for any reason you can not open the document from my blog, try typing the title of the document into Google in quotes.  That should take you to the SIPRI web site.  Alternatively, go to http://books.sipri.org/files/PP/SIPRIPP41.pdf.  

Africa Test's China's Non-interference Policy

China/US Focus published on 15 May 2014 my commentary titled "Africa Test's China's Non-interference Policy."  I look at a number of conflict situations in Africa where China has responded in a manner that raises questions about its long-standing policy of the sanctity of sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs. 

South Sudan Challenges China's Policy of Non-interference

Foreign Policy published on 24 April 2014 a brief analysis titled "China's African Adventure" by Keith Johnson which suggests South Sudan and China's oil interests there are challenging its traditional policy of non-interference in internal political affairs.